编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链
摘要
吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美国非农就业和 ADP 就业数据再现一冷一热，美国 9 月核心 PCE 年率 2.1%符合预期；本周将迎来重磅事件：美国 2024 总统大选以及美联储利率决议。
上周回顾
- 美国 10 月季调后非农就业人口增加 1.2 万人，为 2020 年 12 月来最小增幅；前值为增加 25.4 万人。
- 美国 10 月失业率为 4.1%，...

<div>编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 摘要 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美国非农就业和 ADP 就业数据再现一冷一热，美国 9 月核心 PCE 年率 2.1%符合预期；本周将迎来重磅事件：美国 2024 总统大选以及美联储利率决议。 上周回顾<ul><li>美国 10 月季调后非农就业人口增加 1.2 万人，为 2020 年 12 月来最小增幅；前值为增加 25.4 万人。</li><li>美国 10 月失业率为 4.1%，预估为 4.1%，前值为 4.1%。</li><li>美国 10 月 ADP 就业人数增加 23.3 万人，前值增加 14.3 万人。</li><li>美国第三季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值为 2.8%，预期 3%，前值 3%。</li><li>美国第三季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值 2.2%，前值 2.8%。</li><li>日本央行将政策利率维持在 0.25%不变。</li><li>美国 9 月核心 PCE 物价指数年率为 2.1%，符合预期，高于前值的 2.2%。</li></ul> 本周重点事件 &amp; 指标 11 月 05 日<ul><li>美国举行 2024 年总统大选</li><li>中国 10 月财新服务业 PMI（09:45）</li><li>澳洲联储公布利率决议和货币政策声明（11:30）</li></ul> 11 月 07 日<ul><li>英国央行公布利率决议和会议纪要（20:00）</li><li>美国至 11 月 2 日当周初请失业金人数(万人)（21:30）</li></ul> 11 月 08 日<ul><li>美联储公布利率决议（03:00）</li></ul></div>

吴说本周宏观指标与分析：美国总统大选、美联储利率决议

Compilation: GaryMa Wu Blockchain
Summary
Wu Blockchain's weekly macroeconomic indicators and analysis: Last week, the US non-farm employment and ADP employment data showed a cold and hot trend, and the US September core PCE year-on-year rate of 2.1% was in line with expectations; this week will welcome major events: the 2024 US presidential election and the Fed's interest rate decision.
Last week's review
- The seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the US increased by 12,000 in October, the smallest increase since December 2020; the previous value was an increase of 254,000.
- The US unemployment rate in October was 4.1%, ...

<div>Compiled by: GaryMa Wu Blockchain Abstract Wu Blockchain's weekly macroeconomic indicators and analysis: Last week, the US non-farm employment and ADP employment data showed one cold and one hot, and the US September core PCE year-on-year rate of 2.1% was in line with expectations; this week will see major events: the 2024 US presidential election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Review of Last Week<ul><li>The seasonally adjusted US non-farm payrolls increased by 12,000 in October, the smallest increase since December 2020; the previous value was an increase of 254,000.</li><li>The US unemployment rate in October was 4.1%, the estimate was 4.1%, and the previous value was 4.1%.</li><li>The US ADP employment increased by 233,000 in October, compared to an increase of 143,000 in the previous value.</li><li>The preliminary annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the third quarter was 2.8%, expected to be 3%, and the previous value was 3%.</li><li>The preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the US third-quarter core PCE price index was 2.2%, compared to the previous value of 2.8%.</li><li>The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.25%.</li><li>The US September core PCE price index year-on-year rate was 2.1%, in line with expectations, higher than the previous value of 2.2%.</li></ul> Key Events & Indicators This Week November 05<ul><li>The US holds the 2024 presidential election</li><li>China Caixin Services PMI for October (09:45)</li><li>The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement (11:30)</li></ul> November 07<ul><li>The Bank of England announces its interest rate decision and meeting minutes (20:00)</li><li>The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 2 (21:30)</li></ul> November 08<ul><li>The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision (03:00)</li></ul></div>

Wu Blockchain this week's macro indicators and analysis: US presidential election, Federal Reserve interest rate decision

ChainCatcher reported that this week is a busy week for economic data, with the PCE data, the October non-farm payroll report, and the third-quarter financial reports of Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, which will determine the market direction at the beginning of November. According to 4E monitoring, the three major US stock indexes performed differently last week, with Tesla's soaring stock price driving the Nasdaq to rise about 0.9%, marking its seventh consecutive week of gains and being just one step away from a new high. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the Dow Jones fell 2.6% last week, both ending a six-week winning streak. The cryptocurrency market generally experienced a significant decline last week, with Bitcoin trading at $67,668 as of the time of writing, down 2.18% in 7 days, and Ethereum trading at $2,490, down nearly 10% in 7 days.

In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the US dollar index retested the three-month high on Friday, rising 0.8% last week and extending its gains for the fourth consecutive week, while political uncertainty led the yen to fall 1.9% last week. Due to the instability in the Middle East and the US elections, as well as the expectation of global central bank rate cuts, spot gold hit a new high for three consecutive days last week before retracing some of the gains, but still rose more than 0.9% for the week, marking its sixth consecutive week of gains. The tense situation in the Middle East also helped push US oil and Brent oil to gain more than 4% for the week.

The market is increasingly expecting a soft landing for the US economy, and the series of economic data this week will test investors' bets. The Q3 GDP estimate will be released on Wednesday, the September PCE data will be released on Thursday, and the October non-farm payroll report will be released on Friday. With the policy meeting approaching, Fed officials have entered their usual quiet period, and the market generally believes that a 25-basis-point rate cut is highly likely. The data-intensive releases, coupled with the approaching US elections, will increase market volatility. <eeee.com> is a financial trading platform that supports cryptocurrencies, stock indexes, bulk gold, foreign exchange and other assets, and has recently launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing potential hedging options for investors. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and allocate assets reasonably.

4E: This week's focus is on PCE and non-agricultural data as well as the financial reports of technology giants. The intensive release of data will intensify market volatility

According to the <ChainCatcher> message, the latest data released by the United States on Wednesday showed that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter slowed slightly and fell short of expectations, while the ADP employment data, known as the "mini non-farm", far exceeded expectations, reaching the highest level in more than a year. The data was mixed, reflecting the continued uncertainty in the US economy. According to 4E monitoring, US stocks rose across the board in early trading, but then plummeted, with the Nasdaq falling 0.56%, the Dow Jones falling 0.22%, and the S&P 500 falling 0.33%, with most of the "Seven Sisters of Technology" and AI concept stocks declining. The cryptocurrency market saw a Trump trade boost, with Bitcoin retreating after approaching its all-time high, currently hovering around $72,245, down 0.23%, while Ethereum rose 0.71% to $2,652. In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the US dollar index briefly rose to a intraday high of 104.44 but then turned lower, closing down 0.17%, as the market lowered expectations of a significant rate cut by the European Central Bank in December, and the euro rose 0.35% against the US dollar. The uncertainty surrounding the US election and the instability of geopolitics have continued to support gold prices as investors seek defensive positions, with spot gold reaching a new all-time high on Wednesday, closing up 0.43%. US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell, and there were reports that OPEC+ may delay its oil production increase plan, leading international oil prices to close higher on Wednesday, with WTI crude oil up 2.31% and Brent up 2.3%. The latest data shows that the US economic growth rate unexpectedly slowed, with inflation and consumption higher than expected. The October non-farm payroll report, which is more comprehensive and closely watched, will be released on Friday, and the market generally expects the Fed's rate cut pace will not change, with a further 25 basis point cut at the November 7-8 meeting. Meanwhile, the US election is entering a critical stage, with the latest polls showing voters tend to give Trump better scores on the economy, and global investors are betting on Trump winning the election next week, but regardless of the outcome, the market is expected to see greater volatility as election day approaches. <eeee.com> is a financial trading platform that supports cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, foreign exchange and other assets, and has recently launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and allocate assets reasonably.

4E: US GDP growth in the third quarter was lower than expected, and the "small non-farm" was stronger than expected

Odaily Planet Daily Report: According to a research report by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the U.S. non-farm data in October was weak and fell short of expectations, partly affected by the impact of hurricanes and strikes. Hurricanes forced a large number of people to evacuate, significantly reducing the response rate of corporate surveys, resulting in a sharp drop in employment in the leisure and accommodation service industries, and a surge in the number of people unable to go to work due to weather reasons. Strikes also led to a significant contraction in manufacturing employment. However, these are temporary disturbances, and their impact may be reversed in the coming months. Overall, the U.S. labor market is still gradually cooling, and there are no signs of a rapid deterioration. Considering the overall economic data, it is predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, and monetary policy will continue to return to normal, but the pace of interest rate cuts will not be as aggressive as the market previously expected. (Gold Ten)