On November 1, the price of Toncoin (TON) fell below $5, where it had been holding for several days. Following this decline, traders are anticipating a further drop, reflecting a broader market sentiment that has seen recent losses across other cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC).
However, in the case of TON, this analysis suggests that the recovery may be difficult even if the broader market recovers.
Toncoin Market Sentiment Turns Bearish
According to the derivatives data portal Coinglass, the long/short ratio for Toncoin has dropped to 0.88. The long/short ratio is an indicator that evaluates the balance between long positions (buyers) and short positions (sellers) in the market.
A long/short ratio above 1 indicates that long positions are more prevalent, suggesting that most traders expect the price to rise. Conversely, a ratio below 1 indicates that short positions are more prevalent, implying a bearish outlook.
According to BeInCrypto's analysis, 53% of Toncoin traders with open positions are in short positions, while approximately 47% are in long positions. This distribution reflects the generally bearish sentiment surrounding altcoins.
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Additionally, there appears to be strong evidence for the traders' positions. On-chain data provided by Santiment shows a significant increase in the Mean Dollar Invested Age (MDIA). MDIA is the average age of all tokens on the blockchain, weighted by the purchase price.
A decrease in MDIA indicates active token movement, which could increase the potential for price appreciation.
However, the recent increase in MDIA suggests that most TON tokens remain in a dormant state. If this trend continues, Toncoin's price may struggle to gain upward momentum.
TON Price Prediction: No Signs of a Rebound Yet
At the time of writing, the price of Toncoin is $4.87. According to the daily chart, the altcoin has fallen below the baseline due to a lack of buying pressure. Subsequently, TON has dropped below the key exponential moving averages (EMAs).
Rising EMAs generally support an uptrend and act as dynamic support levels, while falling EMAs often act as resistance, hindering the upward movement.
As can be seen below, the price of TON is below the 20 (blue) and 50 (yellow) EMAs. This indicates that the trend around Toncoin is bearish, and the price is likely to continue declining. If this occurs, the altcoin could drop to $4.46, with most Toncoin traders in profit.
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On the other hand, if the cryptocurrency retests the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, the price could rebound to $6.20.
