The US presidential election will be held on the 5th, and the Democratic candidate, current Vice President Kamala Harris, and the Republican candidate, former President Trump, are in a tight race in the key polls of 7 swing states, not as confident as the crypto community previously had in Trump's victory.
Since these 7 states adopt the winner-take-all system for the electoral college, they have a critical impact on the election results, so the market is closely watching the changes in the election situation.
NYT: Kamala Harris narrowly leads Trump in swing state polls
According to the pro-Democratic New York Times and Siena College, the presidential election polls in 7 swing states were released yesterday (3rd). The results show that the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is leading the Republican candidate Trump in Nevada (49% vs. 46%), North Carolina (48% vs. 46%), Wisconsin (49% vs. 47%) and Georgia (48% vs. 47%).
In Michigan and Pennsylvania, the two are evenly supported; while Trump is leading in Arizona at 49% to 45%. This result shows that Kamala Harris has a slight advantage.
In addition, according to the comprehensive data of RealClearPolitics, Trump is slightly leading in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, while Kamala Harris is slightly ahead in Michigan. The two are evenly matched in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Election forecasting expert Nate Silver's integration of multiple poll results shows that Trump is leading in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, while Kamala Harris has an advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin. The two are almost equal in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Silver believes it is currently difficult to predict the final winner, and the election situation is indeed a 50-50 situation.
Whale invests $5 million to bet on Kamala Harris winning
The tight race between Kamala Harris and Trump is also gradually reflected in the on-chain prediction market Polymarket. The latest data from Polymarket shows that Trump's current winning probability has dropped from 67% last week to 54.9%, while Kamala Harris' winning probability has risen from 35.9% to 45.1%, and Trump's lead over Kamala Harris has narrowed from over 28% to less than 10%.
According to on-chain analyst Embermonitoring, a whale spent a total of $5 million USDC betting on Kamala Harris winning around 3am this morning, and if his prediction is correct, he will receive a return of up to $10.87 million.
Currently, the betting amount on the US presidential election market on Polymarket has surged to $3 billion, increasing by another $1 billion in 2 weeks. Among them, the betting amount supporting Trump exceeds $1.2 billion, the amount supporting Kamala Harris exceeds $770 million, and the remaining about $1 billion is bet on other politicians.
In 6 swing states, Trump is leading in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, while Kamala Harris is leading in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump's campaign weakens, BTC falls in sync
The market generally believes that if Trump is elected, it will be more favorable for the future of BTC and US cryptocurrencies. Therefore, as Trump's dominant position in the prediction market begins to collapse, the BTC price has also recently shown a pullback. After surging to $73,600 last week on the 30th, it has been declining, and even briefly fell below $67,500 last night, indicating the market's risk-averse reaction to Trump's potential defeat.
Before the deadline, BTC has rebounded somewhat, currently quoted at $69,214, up 1.65% in the last 24 hours.
