Odaily星球日报讯 据预测平台数据显示，特朗普在 Polymarket、Kalshi 和 PredictIt 3 家主流预测平台的大选胜率均保持领先，其中：特朗普在 Polymarket 上胜率为 56.1%，领先哈里斯的 44.1%；特朗普在 Kalshi 上胜率为 52%，领先哈里斯的 48%；特朗普在 PredictIt 上胜率领先哈里斯 1%。

预测平台数据：特朗普在3家预测平台中均保持领先

Odaily Odaily reported that according to the data from the prediction platforms, Trump maintained a leading position in the election on the three mainstream prediction platforms, Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Among them: Trump&#39;s winning rate on Polymarket is 56.1%, ahead of Harris&#39;s 44.1%; Trump&#39;s winning rate on Kalshi is 52%, ahead of Harris&#39;s 48%; Trump&#39;s winning rate on PredictIt is 1% ahead of Harris.

Prediction platform data: Trump maintains a lead in all three prediction platforms

Odaily Planet Daily Report: 10x Research in its market analysis pointed out that Trump's winning probability on Polymarket has dropped from 68% to around 59%, although he still maintains a slight lead in all swing states. The average betting value on RealClearPolitics shows Trump's winning probability at 58.3%. Experts warn that this election is too close to call, as the result may depend on one or two key swing states, and although polls show Trump has a better chance of winning, the Democrats may still have an advantage in these states.

10x Research: Polls show Trump has a better chance of winning, while Democrats still have an advantage in key swing states

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According to a report from Mars Finance, data from the polling aggregator Real Clear Polling shows that the current advantage of Trump over Harris is negligible, with their support rates at 48.5% and 48.4% respectively. Over the past weekend, the trading volume on Polymarket for bets of $10,000 and above increased to above average levels. Analysts point out that the rise in the probability of Harris' victory may be due to hedging bets by traders, and a study of transactions over $10,000 shows that large bets and strategic trades on Harris are to hedge against a Trump defeat. Some market observers say the rise in the probability of Harris' victory reflects traders' hedging positions, as they are also betting on her Republican opponent Trump to win. Reports of voting irregularities related to Trump may further impact market bets, as rumors about voting and fraud have been circulating on social media over the past week, and if true, would benefit the Democratic Party. Well-known political bettor "Domer" stated in a <X> post on Sunday that based on various polls and voter behavior trends, he believes the chance of Harris becoming the next president is 55-60%. Additionally, Polymarket noted that the contrasting trends in early voting suggest that more Republicans than Democrats have voted early, which may indicate strategic voting or a shift in voter behavior. (CoinDesk)

Harris's chances of winning the election on Polymarket may rise as traders hedge their bets

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The article discusses the complex situation and arbitrage opportunities that Polymarket platform may face if Trump loses the election. The article assumes that after AP, Foxnews, and NBCNews announce Trump's defeat, the market may enter a "dual controversy" phase. The author believes that there will be arbitrage opportunities during the controversy period, and points out that if Foxnews does not announce the election result, it may make the situation more chaotic. The article reminds that this is a hypothetical discussion and looks forward to insights from industry insiders.

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