The US presidential election is just around the corner on the 5th, and the crypto community is holding its breath for the final winner. However, with Trump's election prospects weakening in the prediction market, and investors' risk-averse sentiment rising, BTC surged to $73,600 last week but fell below $67,500 yesterday, a pullback of more than 8%; at the same time, Trump-themed meme coins have been declining for the past week.
However, just as BTC broke through $69,000 earlier, Trump-themed meme coins have also seen a strong rebound.
Trump Meme Coin Surges
According to CoinGecko data, the Harris-themed meme coin $KAMA has retreated more than 43% from its $0.02 high on the previous (3rd) day, currently trading at $0.01139, down 26.7% in the last 24 hours, while the Trump-themed meme coins have rebounded, including:
- $TRUMP up 25.4%, currently at $3.36;
- $MAGA up 47%, currently at $0.0002029;
- $TREMP up 14.2%, currently at $0.3059;
- $STRUMP up 47.9%, currently at $0.007168;
- ...
This result shows that the crypto community has regained confidence in Trump's victory.
Trump Leads Harris by 12% on Polymarket
This confidence is also reflected in the on-chain prediction market Polymarket. Polymarket's latest data shows that Trump's current win rate has risen from the 54.9% previously reported by BlockTempo to 56.2%, while Harris' win rate has dropped from 45.1% to 44%, and Trump's lead over Harris has slightly widened from less than 10% to 12.2%.
The price reaction of the meme coins is close to the trend of the on-chain prediction market. However, according to the poll results released by the pro-Democratic New York Times and Siena College yesterday, Harris has a slight advantage, leading Trump slightly in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia; in Michigan and Pennsylvania, the two are evenly matched; Trump only leads in Arizona by 49% to 45%.
And election forecasting expert Nate Silver's integration of multiple poll results indicates that Trump is leading in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, while Harris has the advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin. The two are nearly equal in Pennsylvania and Nevada... Silver believes that it is still difficult to predict the final winner at the moment, and the election situation is a 50-50 split.
How to Operate Meme Coins
In the face of a deadlocked election, if investors delve into the online forums of various US states and understand the local voter sentiment, and want to verify the observation results for entertainment purposes, investors who are bullish on Trump's victory can consider entering the market when the relevant meme coin prices rebound from the low point; while investors who are bullish on Harris can take the opportunity to add more when $KAMA pulls back.
However, BlockTempo reminds readers that meme coin prices fluctuate wildly and the issuers are unclear, and they may crash together after the election (the issuers cash out and leave), so please be cautious when investing.
