Bitcoin plunges as Trump's approval rating falls

Trump's approval rating plunges 7% ahead of US election
US BTC futures market records 433.1 billion won in liquidation
Experts say "volatility will increase after the US election"

On the 4th, BTC plunged due to the drop in the approval rating of former President Trump, a 'pro-cryptocurrency candidate'.

The approval ratings of former President Trump and Vice President Harris released by Pollmarket on the 3rd were about 54% and 46% respectively. Former President Trump's approval rating fell by about 7% compared to last week. The approval ratings of the two candidates were also neck and neck in the poll released by ABC News and Ipsos.

As the overwhelming lead of former President Trump, whose approval rating had been dominant for the past few weeks, plummeted, a large-scale liquidation occurred in the BTC futures market. According to data released by the on-chain analysis platform CoinGlass on the 4th, the liquidation amount in the futures market on the 3rd was about $315 million (about 433.1 billion won), and $250 million (about 343.8 billion won) of that was long position liquidation.

Due to the long position liquidation in the BTC futures market, BTC fell by about 3% over the weekend. BTC, which had maintained the $69,000 level until the morning of the 3rd last week, fell to around $67,591 on the morning of the 4th.

In particular, BTC fell below the realized price of $69,352 amid the sharp decline, and the decline deepened further during the trading session on the 4th.

◇BTC = As of 5 pm on the 4th based on Upbit, the price of BTC is 95.35 million won. BTC dominance was 60.48%.

According to the on-chain analysis platform Glassnode, the long (bullish) and short (bearish) betting ratio in the BTC futures market was 55.20% and 44.80%, respectively.

As BTC showed sharp volatility and plunged, it was forecast that BTC's volatility could further increase going forward.

Cryptocurrency expert 'Dan Crypto Trades' predicted on his X account on the 4th that "depending on the results of this week's election, BTC is likely to move more than 10% in either direction."

BTC's price volatility reached a 3-month high on the 3rd. The Cryptocurrency Volatility Index (DVOL) provided by the cryptocurrency exchange Deribit recorded 62.37 on the 4th, setting a new high since August this year.

Both inside and outside the market are predicting BTC's price fluctuations based on the political tendencies of the two candidates. Former President Trump has proclaimed himself a 'pro-cryptocurrency candidate' and has made numerous cryptocurrency support pledges since the early primaries, while Vice President Harris has recently announced cryptocurrency pledges.

Global bank Standard Chartered has forecast the price trend of BTC based on the US presidential election in its own report.

The report said "BTC's price will reach about $73,000 by November 5, the US presidential election day, and if former President Trump is re-elected, BTC could rise by about 10% by the end of this year," and "if Vice President Harris is elected, BTC's price will trade lower for a while, but will record $75,000 by the end of the year."

◇Rising Coins = As of 5 pm on the 4th based on Upbit, the cryptocurrency that recorded the largest increase compared to the previous trading day was Achain (ATH), which rose by about 4.00%.

Achain is a project to meet the computational demand for the growth of the AI and gaming market, as a decentralized cloud computing infrastructure project.

The Achain network operates based on three main functions: container, checker, and indexer. The container is a virtual endpoint where cloud work is performed. The checker periodically verifies the role of the container, and the indexer mediates between the container and Achain users. Achain is used for utility, staking, and governance purposes.

◇Fear and Greed Index = The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index provided by Alternative is at 70 points, entering the 'Greed' stage. The Greed stage is a period of high price volatility and trading volume, where prices are rising. There is a high possibility of forming a short-term peak, so caution is required when selling.

The Cryptocurrency Relative Strength Index (RSI) provided by Glassnode is 41.7, recording a 'neutral' state. RSI measures the relative strength between the upward and downward pressure on the price of a specific asset, and indicates the overbought and oversold levels of the asset.

Reporter Kwon Seung-won ksw@blockstreet.co.kr