Odaily星球日报讯 美国将于周二举行总统大选，德国商业银行的外汇分析师在一份报告中表示，美元对糟糕的非农就业人数不屑一顾，但受到选举民调的影响。一项备受尊敬的民意调查显示，民主党人哈里斯在通常倾向共和党的爱荷华州领先于共和党人特朗普，这增加了选举结果的不确定性。（金十）

德商银行：民调开始主导美元走势

Odaily Odaily News: The United States will hold a presidential election on Tuesday. In a report, foreign exchange analysts at Commerzbank said that the dollar shrugged off the poor non-farm payrolls but was affected by election polls. A well-respected poll showed that Democrat Harris was ahead of Republican Trump in Iowa, which usually leans towards the Republican Party, adding to the uncertainty of the election results. (Jinshi)

Commerzbank: Polls begin to dominate the dollar trend

PANews, November 3 news, the final battle of the US election next week may trigger a nuclear-level warning, the bullets of the US dollar bulls are "fully loaded", and with the worst non-farm payrolls in nearly 4 years, the expectation of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed next week is almost fully priced in. The market focus next week includes the US election, the Fed's interest rate decision, and the Bank of England's interest rate decision. The 2024 US presidential election will begin on Tuesday. Many major polls still show that Trump and Harris are evenly matched. Here are the key macroeconomic market highlights to watch in the coming week:
Monday, final October manufacturing PMI for France/Germany/Eurozone;
Tuesday 09:45, China's Caixin October services PMI;
Wednesday, final October services PMI for France/Germany/Eurozone, September PPI MoM for the Eurozone;
Wednesday 07:50, Bank of Japan releases minutes of September monetary policy meeting;
Wednesday 21:30, US Treasury to announce new quarterly borrowing plans;
Wednesday 22:45, final October S&P Global US services PMI; 23:00, US October global supply chain pressure index;
Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 2; 23:00, US September wholesale sales MoM;
Friday 03:00, Fed announces interest rate decision; 03:30, Fed Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference;
CFTC data shows that hedge funds and managers accumulated $18 billion in long US dollar positions ahead of the US election. Wall Street strategists generally believe that Trump's promised tariffs will support the US dollar at least in the short term. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said that if Trump wins the election and triggers a stock market rally, investors should consider selling. Conversely, if Harris wins, investors should buy on dips. Citi also believes that the US stock market is ripe for a pullback, and if the Republicans win big, investors should withdraw. UBS believes that if Trump wins, gold prices will reach the $2,900 target faster, while if Harris wins, gold prices may temporarily fall to $2,600-$2,700.
Friday 23:00, preliminary November 1-year US inflation rate expectation, preliminary November University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

Next week's macro outlook: The US election faces the final battle, and the Fed's expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut are almost fully met

ChainCatcher reports that the US non-farm data for October was much lower than expected. Excluding the distortion caused by two hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the labor market is also gradually cooling down. At the same time, the results of the US election will be announced soon, and Trump's chances of winning have unexpectedly weakened, leading to a reversal of the "Trump trade", adding more uncertainty to the election. According to 4E monitoring, the financial reports of major technology giants were released last week. Although Apple's financial report on Friday was disappointing, the weak US October non-farm data boosted expectations of rate cuts, and the positive financial reports of Amazon and Intel boosted the optimistic sentiment of technology stocks, with the Nasdaq closing up 0.8%. However, on a weekly basis, US stocks fell across the board, with the Nasdaq ending a seven-week winning streak, down 1.5% for the week, the S&P down 1.4%, and the Dow down 0.2%. The cryptocurrency market was affected by the weakening of the "Trump trade", and the risk-averse sentiment intensified after approaching historical highs at the end of the month. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is reported at $68,885, up 0.25%, with a 7-day gain of 1.8%. In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the US dollar index had a V-shaped reversal on "non-farm day" on Friday, breaking back above 104 and erasing its weekly decline, up 0.06% for the week, with the pound being the only non-US currency to rise, ending the downtrend of the previous two days due to the budget case sell-off, but still down for the sixth consecutive week, the longest in six years. Spot gold rose slightly after the non-farm data on Friday, but subsequently fell back as the US dollar and US bond yields remained strong, ultimately closing down 0.32%, the largest weekly decline since August. Due to Iran's relatively restrained retaliation against Israel, US crude oil production hit a new high, and weak economic data such as non-farm data raised demand concerns, causing international oil prices to retreat from highs on Friday, with oil prices down more than 3% for the week. This week will be a week that changes history, as the final vote in the US election will be held on Tuesday, November 5, and the election results are expected to be basically determined by noon Beijing time on the 6th. The current election situation is deadlocked, with swing state polls constantly flipping, and the latest poll data showing no clear advantage between Trump and Harris. Some investors have chosen to take profits on some Trump-oriented positions, especially those related to Trump's policies and opinion poll improvements. The current market sentiment is generally cautious, with increased uncertainty. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, foreign exchange and other assets, and has recently launched a USDT stable coin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing potential hedging options for investors. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and allocate assets reasonably.

4E: The Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates this week, the "Trump deal" is reversed, and the uncertainty of the election increases

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Morgan Stanley strategist Michael D Zezas said that investors' main goal during the US election should be to build a sense of situation and avoid overconfidence in the election result and market impact. Investors may benefit from adjusting their expectations. He said that the market-implied probability of a Republican victory has risen, leading some to expect a clear result on election night. Morgan Stanley believes this scenario is possible, but not the most likely. The two candidates do not appear to be the obvious frontrunners to win the Electoral College, so a prolonged vote-counting scenario similar to 2020 may recur. Given the poor past performance of early voting data, Morgan Stanley does not place much emphasis on these data and advises against over-interpreting the short-term market trends. The company said the market's short-term reaction to the election is often noisy and may not foreshadow medium-term trends. (Jinshi)