Odaily星球日报讯 据 Polymarket 数据，目前特朗普胜选概率已回升至 57.7%，哈里斯胜选概率降至 42.3%。

Polymarket上特朗普胜选概率回升至57.7%

Odaily Odaily reported that according to Polymarket data, Trump&#39;s chances of winning have now risen to 57.7%, while Harris&#39; chances of winning have dropped to 42.3%.

Polymarket's Trump's chances of winning the election have risen to 57.7%

Odaily Planet Daily Report: 10x Research in its market analysis pointed out that Trump's winning probability on Polymarket has dropped from 68% to around 59%, although he still maintains a slight lead in all swing states. The average betting value on RealClearPolitics shows Trump's winning probability at 58.3%. Experts warn that this election is too close to call, as the result may depend on one or two key swing states, and although polls show Trump has a better chance of winning, the Democrats may still have an advantage in these states.

10x Research: Polls show Trump has a better chance of winning, while Democrats still have an advantage in key swing states

According to the Wall Street Journal, a French user who spent over $30 million betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket said he had "no political motives." The user, who claimed to be a French national who had previously lived in the US and worked as a trader at a bank, said: "My only goal is to make money." The user reportedly opened Polymarket accounts under the names Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie, and bet around $38 million on Trump in the 2024 election. If the user's expectation of a Trump landslide victory materializes, he could reportedly receive over $80 million in returns, more than double his investment. If Harris wins, the user may lose all or most of his funds, which he said constitute a large portion of his available liquid assets.

French user who bet over $30 million on Trump's victory on Polymarket claims the move has "no political purpose"

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The article discusses the complex situation and arbitrage opportunities that Polymarket platform may face if Trump loses the election. The article assumes that after AP, Foxnews, and NBCNews announce Trump's defeat, the market may enter a "dual controversy" phase. The author believes that there will be arbitrage opportunities during the controversy period, and points out that if Foxnews does not announce the election result, it may make the situation more chaotic. The article reminds that this is a hypothetical discussion and looks forward to insights from industry insiders.

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