Odaily星球日报讯 在 Polymarket 上关于哈里斯或特朗普谁将赢得 2024 年总统大选的竞猜资金额超过了 30 亿美元，当前触及 3,121,569,181 美元。历史信息显示，该数字曾于 9 月 24 日左右触及 10 亿美元，于 10 月 17 日左右突破 20 亿美元。 截至 11 月 4 日，特朗普在 Polymarket 上的竞猜金额约为 1,226,865,850 美元，胜率 56.9% ；哈里斯的竞猜近额约为 779,472,633 美元，胜率 43.1%。

Odaily星球日报讯 在 Polymarket 上关于哈里斯或特朗普谁将赢得 2024 年总统大选的竞猜资金额超过了 30 亿美元，当前触及 3,121,569,181 美元。历史信息显示，该数字曾于 9 月 24 日左右触及 10 亿美元，于 10 月 17 日左右突破 20 亿美元。截至 11 月 4 日，特朗普在 Polymarket 上的竞猜金额约为 1,226,865,850 美元，胜率 56.9% ；哈里斯的竞猜近额约为 779,472,633 美元，胜率 43.1%。

Polymarket上美国总统大选竞猜金额突破30亿美元

Odaily Planet Daily Report: The amount of betting on Polymarket on who will win the 2024 presidential election between Harris or Trump has exceeded $3 billion, currently reaching $3,121,569,181. Historical information shows that this figure reached around $1 billion around September 24, and broke through $2 billion around October 17. As of November 4, the betting amount for Trump on Polymarket is about $1,226,865,850, with a winning rate of 56.9%; the betting amount for Harris is about $779,472,633, with a winning rate of 43.1%.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: The amount of betting on Polymarket on who will win the 2024 presidential election between Harris or Trump has exceeded $3 billion, currently reaching $3,121,569,181. Historical information shows that the figure reached around $1 billion around September 24, and broke through $2 billion around October 17. As of November 4, the betting amount for Trump on Polymarket is about $1,226,865,850, with a winning rate of 56.9%; the betting amount for Harris is about $779,472,633, with a winning rate of 43.1%.

Polymarket's US presidential election betting exceeds $3 billion

Odaily Planet Daily Report According to on-chain analyst Yu Jing's monitoring, the US election is approaching, and a certain whale has spent 5 million USDC on Polymarket in the past 11 hours to bet on Harris' victory. He withdrew 5 million USDC from Binance 11 hours ago and then deposited the full amount into Polymarket to bet on Harris winning the election. If Harris wins, he will receive a return of up to $10.87 million.

A whale spent 5 million USDC on Polymarket in the past 11 hours to bet on Harris' victory

According to data from the prediction platform, Trump maintains a leading position in the election victory rate on 3 mainstream prediction platforms: Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt, where Trump's victory rate on Polymarket is 56.1%, leading Harris' 44.1%; Trump's victory rate on Kalshi is 52%, leading Harris' 48%; Trump's victory rate on PredictIt leads Harris by 1%.

Prediction platform data: Trump maintains a lead in all three prediction platforms

Odaily Planet Daily Report: QCP Capital stated that "as the odds on Polymarket gradually approach the actual poll results, the election competition between Harris and Trump is becoming increasingly intense. Although Polymarket's odds still favor Trump at 55%, this is a significant decline from 66% a week ago. The relatively small price fluctuations over the weekend, as well as the reduction in the positions of perpetual contracts on various exchanges from 3 billion to 2.6 billion, indicate that the market remains cautious. Does this foreshadow a period of calm before breaking out of the price range that has lasted for months and reaching new historical highs? The options market seems to think so, as we have seen an increase in long positions since last Friday, with a large number of options expiring at the end of November with a strike price of $75,000. At the same time, as the actual volatility remains at 40% and the implied volatility has risen above 87% on Friday, positions in options related to the election date are also increasing. We expect the spot price to fluctuate within this range before the election results become clearer this week. If Trump wins, it is likely to immediately trigger a price increase, while if Harris wins, it may trigger a price drop."