The "Yes" vote of Donald Trump on the leading decentralized prediction market is currently being controlled mainly by a number of mysterious entities. Political bettors have poured millions of dollars into the votes ahead of the US election.
More than 50% of Trump's shares have been bought by five major investors, or "whales," according to anonymous political bettor Domer.
This could bring a payout of over $81 million to the "whales," Domer wrote in a post on X on October 31:
"The Trump Yes shares are highly concentrated. 5 large accounts own 50% of the 162 million shares — including Le Giga Whale with nearly 1/3 of the shares. If Trump wins, these 5 people will receive $81 million."
Owners of Trump "Yes" shares on Polymarket. Source: Domer
In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris' shares are more widely distributed, with the top five shareholders holding 18% of her "Yes" votes. Harris' largest shareholder holds 4.4% of her shares, while Trump's largest shareholder controls 29.1%, Domer said.
Owners of Harris "Yes" shares on Polymarket. Source: Domer
This revelation comes ahead of the US presidential election, which is becoming a focal point for Crypto investors, as it could shape the regulatory landscape for the industry over the next four years.
At least four of the top six Trump bettors, including accounts "zxgngl" and "Fredi9999", may be controlled by the same entity with a strong belief in Trump's victory, Domer told TinTucBitcoin:
"I guess it's a really confident, very wealthy person trying to make a big bet. They're getting more confident as the price goes up and are in a confirmation bias loop as new information keeps boosting their confidence."
Trump continues to lead, but poll results differ
Despite some volatility over the weekend, Trump still leads on the top decentralized prediction market, Polymarket.
Trump's probability of winning the presidential election is currently 56.9%, while Harris' is 43%, according to Polymarket data.
Trump vs Harris, betting market. Source: Polymarket
However, Trump's lead is smaller on other betting markets. On Kalshi, 54% of bettors predict Trump will win, while 46% have bet on Harris.
Trump vs Harris, betting market. Source: Kalshi
However, traditional polling systems paint a completely different picture. Harris' probability of winning the presidential election is 49% compared to 48% for Trump, according to the New York Times national polling average.
Trump vs Harris, national polling average. Source: New York Times
Decentralized prediction markets may provide more accurate forecasts than traditional polling systems, as investors are betting with their own savings, according to billionaire Elon Musk.
Trump's probability has flipped back in his favor on Polymarket on October 4, marking a strong reversal from September. By October 12, Trump was leading by over 10 points, TinTucBitcoin reported.
Bitcoin investors take profits as Trump's chances fluctuate
The volatility in Trump's probability on Polymarket, along with Harris' new lead in traditional polling systems, has triggered some profit-taking.
This is the main reason for the BTC adjustment, according to analyst Valentin Fournier of BRN. He told TinTucBitcoin:
"Last weekend, new polls showed Harris leading by a narrow 2-3% margin. Given Trump's pro-Crypto stance and ambition to make the US a leader in digital assets, his potential defeat is seen as a short-term and medium-term obstacle to Bitcoin's growth potential. This political shift has contributed to the recent profit-taking, reinforcing the ongoing BTC price correction."
Some analysts have called Bitcoin's price action in October a "Trump pump," as its price seemed to rise along with Trump's chances of victory. BTC reached over $73,600 on October 29, the highest level since March 2024, just $200 away from the ATH.
However, other analysts believe the current rally is simply a "Trump hedge" lacking the fundamental macroeconomic conditions to lead to a new ATH after the election on November 5.
