Arthur Hayes: Optimistic about Bitcoin and Solana, it is better to pay attention to the Chinese economy than to pay attention to the US presidential election

The highly anticipated US presidential election is drawing near, and the crypto market as well as the overall financial market are the focus of global investors. In a recent interview, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes stated that regardless of who wins, the market may experience significant volatility in the short term, but in the medium to long term, the US government's continued money printing to stabilize the economy will be a boon for the crypto market.

Regarding the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) and China's gradual monetary easing, Hayes believes these indicate that global economic liquidity will drive the growth of risk assets, and he once again emphasizes the importance of patience and flexible portfolio adjustments.

Who wins the election doesn't matter, the US government will keep printing money

Regarding the US presidential election, Hayes said that the market should favor Trump in the short term, as his advocated policies are in line with the political norms of the past few decades, such as tax cuts, relaxed corporate regulation, and increased spending since the Reagan era in the 1980s.

Hayes further said that this would allow the rich to enjoy tax cuts, further boosting the stock market, while also protecting the basic welfare of others, and even military spending would not be reduced. Trump's policies may be favored by the market. As for Harris, Hayes said that she is basically saying the same thing, but the expression is more complex and may be annoying to listen to. But he also said "it doesn't matter who wins, the US government will print more money, so cryptocurrencies will still perform well, if not rise."

If Trump wins, the party is divided and it will be difficult to implement policies

Regarding the view that Trump will be more friendly to cryptocurrency regulation, Hayes holds the opposite opinion. Hayes said: "Trump has not made any substantive contribution to cryptocurrencies during his four-year term." He added that if Trump is elected, but the Republican Party does not control both the Senate and the House, his ability to govern will be limited, and most Republicans are not friendly to Trump and may not support his policies.

Election disputes become the biggest risk, affecting the market

Hayes then said that the real risk is that the losing side will come out and say "this election is unfair", which could trigger a series of social and political unrest that could last for several weeks or even beyond January 5, 2021, the inauguration day of the US president. These uncertainties will greatly affect market performance, and there may be capital outflows in the short term. As for the situation where the post-election results are not immediately available, Hayes feels that the current election situation is close to a 50-50 split, but the market is clearly optimistic that Trump will win.

Don't trade aggressively on election night, prefer to do yoga or play tennis

As for the trading strategy on election night, Hayes frankly said that he will not engage in too aggressive trading on election night, but will maintain his current position, and he even said that when the election results are announced, he will go do yoga or play tennis.

Hayes also added that one should not take excessive risks, even though the market may be volatile in the short term. In the long run, he still believes that "whether Trump or Hillary is elected, the US government will continue to print money, which is an established policy direction. The real choice of voters is to decide which people or groups the printed money will be used to help, not whether to save or stop printing money. So no matter who is elected, the result will be the same."

Bit still drives the crypto market, choose mainstream coins to control risk

Regarding the trend forecast of the cryptocurrency market, Hayes said that the cryptocurrency market still focuses on Bit as the main driver, which in turn affects other currencies. He pointed out: "If Bit rises, the increase in Altcoins and meme coins may exceed Bit. This is because investors often think that low-priced coins have more potential, but this idea is sometimes wrong."

Hayes emphasized that in such a market rotation, one should first choose high-liquidity mainstream coins like Bit, Ether and SOL, because their liquidity is high, and even if there is a violent fluctuation in the market, the loss will only be a small decline, and capital can be retained for the next time. But holding low-liquidity small coins or Altcoins, it is easier to make misjudgments, and it may be difficult to get out, resulting in a big loss.

Hayes is optimistic about Solana, calling it a substitute for Bit

Hayes sees SOL as a highly volatile (high beta) substitute for Bit, which is "very" suitable for short-term trading. If Bit rises, SOL may see a larger increase, as its market volatility is higher. Hayes also said that when the FTX collapsed, SOL fell to around $7, while Ether was around $1,200. And now Solana has risen to about $180, while Ethereum is around $2,600. Ethereum has doubled, but Solana has exploded 20 to 30 times, which is a very impressive increase.

Ether is slow, old and boring, saying Vitalik only tries to be a social media celebrity to attract attention

Hayes also said that Ether's price movements are too slow, and said that Ether is "slow, old and boring, and even Vitalik is trying to be a social media celebrity to attract everyone's attention to Ether, because everyone thinks Ether is too boring." In contrast, Hayes feels that SOL has high market volatility, high liquidity, an active community, and good trading performance, which has attracted many investors and become the focus of the market recently. Therefore, he believes that Solana is more attractive than Ether in the short term for those seeking high returns.

Hayes added: "As soon as Bit breaks through, I won't buy Bit, but Solana. This doesn't mean I'm going to sell the Ether I've held for a long time, it's just that SOL is a better trading tool for me now."

Instead of focusing on the US election, focus on China's economic strategy

Regarding the current economic situation in China, Hayes said that China's situation is similar to the US, Japan and the EU, all facing the problem of a real estate market collapse. These countries usually lower interest rates to near zero and then carry out quantitative easing, and allow banks to lend heavily to government-supported industries when they encounter such situations. Hayes predicts that China will use similar methods to solve the current economic difficulties, because if they choose to let those over-borrowed companies go bankrupt, it may lead to a loss of government support and trigger serious social unrest.

Hayes believes that although the market now feels that China's countermeasures are not enough, in the long run, China will continue to print money and stimulate the economy, which is good for assets with limited supply like Bit and gold, because with the increase in global money supply, they are better able to maintain their value. In short, Hayes said that instead of caring about the US presidential election, it is better to pay attention to the changes in China's monetary policy and its impact on the global market.

The Fed's stance on QT and QE is the key, be prepared to welcome the bull market