Odaily星球日报讯 预测市场 Polymarket 数据显示，目前预测特朗普赢得美国总统大选概率回升至 59.1%，哈里斯赢得大选概率降至 41%，两者差距再次扩大至 18.1 个百分点。 此外，平台上对美国大选押注金额接近 32 亿美元（3,181,480,562 美元）。

Odaily星球日报讯 预测市场 Polymarket 数据显示，目前预测特朗普赢得美国总统大选概率回升至 59.1%，哈里斯赢得大选概率降至 41%，两者差距再次扩大至 18.1 个百分点。此外，平台上对美国大选押注金额接近 32 亿美元（3,181,480,562 美元）。

Polymarket上特朗普胜选概率回升至59.1%，领先哈里斯超18个百分点

Odaily Planet Daily Report: According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Trump winning the US presidential election has risen to 59.1%, while the probability of Harris winning has dropped to 41%, with the gap between the two widening to 18.1 percentage points. In addition, the total amount bet on the US election on the platform is close to $3.18 billion ($3,181,480,562).

Polymarket's Trump's chances of winning the election have risen to 59.1%, leading Harris by more than 18 percentage points

Odaily Planet Daily Report: QCP Capital stated that "as the odds on Polymarket gradually approach the actual poll results, the election competition between Harris and Trump is becoming increasingly intense. Although Polymarket's odds still favor Trump at 55%, this is a significant decline from 66% a week ago. The relatively small price fluctuations over the weekend, as well as the reduction in the positions of perpetual contracts on various exchanges from 3 billion to 2.6 billion, indicate that the market remains cautious. Does this foreshadow a period of calm before breaking out of the price range that has lasted for months and reaching new historical highs? The options market seems to think so, as we have seen an increase in long positions since last Friday, with a large number of options expiring at the end of November with a strike price of $75,000. At the same time, as the actual volatility remains at 40% and the implied volatility has risen above 87% on Friday, positions in options related to the election date are also increasing. We expect the spot price to fluctuate within this range before the election results become clearer this week. If Trump wins, it is likely to immediately trigger a price increase, while if Harris wins, it may trigger a price drop."

QCP Capital: The results of the US election this week will determine the direction of the crypto market, and we remain cautious

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jing's monitoring, after the address 0x9ad...883 bought $5 million worth of Harris winning in the morning, becoming the largest address betting on Harris' victory on Polymarket, the largest address betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket has added $2.35 million to Trump's victory in the past 6 hours. Now: the address 0xd23...f29 has bought $14.13 million worth of Trump's victory, winning $8.78 million; the address 0x9ad...883 has bought $5.02 million worth of Harris' victory, winning $5.85 million.

The largest address betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket has increased its holdings by $2.35 million in the past 6 hours

After the dispute period, the market should judge it as "Trump lost".

Author: Zaddycoin
Compiled by: TechFlow
Please do your own research, this is just a personal opinion and does not constitute financial advice.

If, according to market rules, Trump is reported by @AP, @Foxnews and @NBCNews as having lost the election, I predict that the US presidential election market on @Polymarket will experience two "disputes", and retail investors may suffer losses due to the possibility of a reversal of the market outcome.

In other words, if the market determines that Trump has lost, the market may experience...