Compiled by: Jinse Finance
The 2024 presidential election is in full swing, with Trump and Harris neck and neck in popularity. On November 5th, Eastern Time, the United States will welcome the new presidential election voting day. As the two will decide the outcome, Jinse Finance has compiled the following content related to the US election.
Team Harris
Harris' final message to supporters: Enjoy the election
With less than a day to go until the election, Democratic presidential candidate Harris held rallies across Pennsylvania, striving to showcase a united vision. "What you're going to do today, and what you've been doing, is to let us enjoy it," Harris told her campaign supporters. In one of the events, Harris again avoided saying the name of her Republican opponent, referring to Trump as "the other person." Harris said, "I am very different from the other person, and everyone knows that, and that's why you're here to help us get the votes." Harris said the polarization of American politics today "makes people feel lonely." "So I've been thinking about our campaign activities in the next 24 hours, when we vote, when we campaign, let's consciously build community, build coalitions, remind people that we have more in common than what divides us."
A user bet $5 million on Harris to win on Polymarket
Cointelegraph reported on the X platform that a user bet $5 million on Harris to win today.
There are less than 7 hours left until the betting deadline. On Polymarket, Trump's winning probability is currently reported at 58.8%, and Harris' winning probability is reported at 41.3%.
The S&P 500 index trend and its correlation with election results suggest Harris may win the election
Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 index (SPX) rises in the three months before the election, the incumbent party's candidate has an 80% chance of winning. Conversely, when the S&P 500 index falls in the three months before the election, the other party's candidate has an 89% chance of winning.
It is reported that this has been a very accurate signal in every election since 1928. Commentators say that if the S&P 500 index does not erase the 8% gain since August in a single day, Harris is likely to win.
At the same time, the market experts interviewed also pointed out that the current market and political landscape are very unique, which may make this election an exception to the above historical experience.
Zhu Su: The market is flowing into Harris concept "beta investment" targets
Zhu Su, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, posted on social media that the market is flowing into Harris concept "beta investment" targets. Among them, the Harris concept Meme token KAMA has broken through $0.015, up more than 40% in 24 hours.
Team Trump
Trump: We will make America prosperous again
Former US President Trump said that our economy is the worst since the Great Depression of 1929, and it will only get worse. We will make America prosperous again, and most importantly, we will make people afford the prices in America again. (The current) prices are just too high.
Plans to significantly reduce taxes on workers and small businesses. We will not tax tips, overtime pay, and social security benefits. To quickly reduce inflation, I will end Harris' war on American energy and lower energy prices. We will cut energy prices in half.
Musk's "million dollar giveaway" activity approved to continue
In the run-up to Tuesday's US presidential election, Musk's daily million-dollar giveaway to voters has survived a legal challenge from the Philadelphia district attorney, as a Pennsylvania judge refused to block the activity. Pennsylvania is a key swing state. The Pennsylvania judge dismissed the district attorney's request to stop the contest, who claimed it was an illegal lottery. Musk's lawyers argued at the hearing that the contest winners were not randomly selected. The winners are chosen based on whether they are "suitable" to be public spokespersons for Musk's political action committee, often based on their personal stories. The judge then made a ruling shortly after, without any further argument.
Musk posted on the X platform again mentioning "PNut"
Musk retweeted a post again mentioning "PNut".
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaigns for Trump
Former US independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. posted on social media that he is voting for Trump. No matter which state you live in, don't vote for me. Let's send President Trump back to the White House and send me to Washington, so we can make America healthy again, end the endless wars, and protect our civil liberties.
US podcaster Joe Rogan: Supports former US President Trump
US podcaster Joe Rogan posted on the "X" social media platform that he supports former US President Trump.
If Trump wins the election, South Korea will consider importing more US energy
According to informed sources, if Donald Trump wins the election and increases pressure on trade partners, South Korea is considering a plan to increase imports of energy from the United States. Officials in Seoul have been preparing for months for either a Trump or Harris presidency, and if Trump wins, this trade-dependent country is expected to face greater risks. One key area under close scrutiny is South Korea's growing trade surplus with the United States. The source said that if trade imbalance becomes an issue during Trump's presidency, the South Korean government may urge companies to increase purchases of US oil and natural gas.
The largest address betting on Trump's victory continues to add $3.1 million
The largest address 0xd23...f29 on Polymarket betting on Trump's victory has added another $3.1 million in the past 6 hours.
He has now invested $17.2 million USDC in Trump's victory. If Trump wins, he can earn $10.94 million.
However, if Trump does not win the election, the entire investment will be zeroed out (unless he has other hedging operations).
JPMorgan estimates Trump's chances of winning the US election at 60% to 70%
According to Cointelegraph, JPMorgan estimates Trump's chances of winning the US election at 60% to 70%, and predicts the dollar will rise 5% if the Republicans achieve a "Red Sweep", and 1.5% to 2% if the US Congress is divided.
A Polymarket user sold $3.15 million in bets on Trump's victory in the past hour
According to Lookonchain monitoring, the Polymarket whale user "larpas" is selling all of his positions betting on Trump's victory in the US election. In the past hour, he has sold positions worth about $3.15 million. Interestingly, just 20 hours ago, this whale withdrew $500,000 USDC from Binance to continue betting on Trump's victory. But only 20 hours later, he regretted this and is now selling off all his positions.
The largest address betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket added $2.35 million in the past 6 hours
According to on-chain analyst Yuyan, after the 0x9ad...883 address was mentioned in the morning as buying $5 million in Harris' victory, becoming the largest address betting on Harris' victory on Polymarket, the largest address betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket has added $2.35 million in the past 6 hours. Now the 0xd23...f29 address has bought $14.13 million in Trump's victory, and can earn $8.78 million if he wins; the 0x9ad...883 address has bought $5.02 million in Harris' victory, and can earn $5.85 million if she wins.
The Impact of the US Election on Cryptocurrencies and the Economy
Viewpoint: History Shows That Bitcoin May Rise After the US Election Regardless of the Winner
According to CoinDesk's analysis, Bitcoin, which was born in 2009, is about to face its fourth US presidential election. Data from the previous three elections shows that Bitcoin has always maintained an upward trend after US elections, never falling back to the election day price. If this trend appears again, Bitcoin's price should reach its peak about a year later.
The 2012 US presidential election was also held on November 5, when Bitcoin's price hovered around $11. In November 2013, Bitcoin's price reached its peak, with a gain of nearly 12,000%, rising to over $1,100.
In the first week of November 2016, the US election, Bitcoin's price was around $700. In December 2017, Bitcoin's price reached a peak of around $18,000, a gain of about 3,600%.
The 2020 US election, which coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, saw Bitcoin rise 478% in the following year to reach a market high of about $69,000. In March 2024, Bitcoin set a new high of over $73,000.
After each Bitcoin halving event, although its price is much higher than four years ago, the gains have narrowed, and the rate of return has gradually decreased. The percentage decline between the first and second numbers is 70%, and between the second and third numbers is 87%. If we continue this trend and assume a decline of about 90% this time, it means that the post-election gain will be about 47.8%. This would bring Bitcoin to around $103,500 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Bernstein Raises Bitcoin's Expected Price, Trump Victory Could Push It to $80,000-$90,000
According to The Block, the latest report from investment research firm Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin's price could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, regardless of the US election result. The analysts believe that Trump is seen as a pro-crypto candidate, while Harris may continue the Democratic Party's tough stance of the past four years.
Bernstein's analysts estimate that if Trump wins, Bitcoin's price could break its historical high and reach $80,000 to $90,000 before Inauguration Day (January 20, 2025). A Harris victory could lead to Bitcoin falling to $50,000 during the same period, higher than the previously forecast range of $30,000 to $40,000.
The report points out that the main drivers of Bitcoin include the US's fiscal indiscipline, record debt levels, and monetary expansion, which have increased the demand for hard assets. The successful launch of a US spot Bitcoin ETF has further accelerated this trend.
Viewpoint: Bitcoin Has Historically Risen Within One Month Before and After US Presidential Elections
According to Lookonchain monitoring, Bitcoin's price has historically risen within one month before and after each US presidential election. Since October 5, 2024, Bitcoin's price has already risen 10.99%.
QCP Capital: This Week's US Election Result Will Determine the Direction of the Crypto Market, Maintaining a Cautious Attitude for Now
Singapore crypto investment firm QCP Capital said in a post: "As Polymarket's odds gradually approach the actual poll results, the competition between Harris and Trump is becoming increasingly intense. Although Polymarket's odds still favor Trump at 55%, this is a significant drop from 66% a week ago. The relatively small price fluctuations over the weekend and the reduction in total open interest on perpetual swap contracts from $30 billion to $26 billion across exchanges all indicate that the market is still maintaining a cautious attitude.
Does this portend a period of calm before breaking the price range of the past few months and reaching new highs? The options market seems to think so, as we've seen an increase in upside positioning since last Friday, with a large volume of buying in 75,000 USD options expiring at the end of November. Meanwhile, as actual volatility remains around 40% while implied volatility has risen above 87% as of Friday, option positions related to the election date are also increasing.
We expect the spot price to fluctuate within this range before the election result becomes clearer this week. If Trump wins, it is likely to immediately trigger a price increase, while a Harris victory could lead to a price drop."
JPMorgan Chase: If the US Election Leads to a Political Deadlock, US Stocks Will Receive a Boost
JPMorgan Chase strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas expects US stocks to rise in the final stages of 2024 once the US presidential election results are known, especially in the event of a political deadlock. "In any deadlock scenario, we believe US stock prices will rise as uncertainty is eliminated, volatility declines, and hedging strategies are unwound, with investors once again turning their attention to the Federal Reserve, as the economy and corporate earnings remain resilient," he wrote in a Monday report to clients.
JPMorgan Chase: If Trump Wins, the Fed May Pause Its Easing Cycle as Early as December
JPMorgan Chase analyst David Kelly said that if Trump wins the US election this week, the Federal Reserve may pause its easing cycle as early as December. Kelly believes that Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans will drive up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling. He said, "If Trump wins the election, he will pursue a more expansionary fiscal policy, possibly leading to trade wars, larger deficits, and higher interest rates." Kelly also said the Fed will almost certainly cut rates by 25 basis points at its policy decision on Friday, even if the election is held before then.
Matrixport: Bitcoin is in a Neutral Zone Before the US Election, Selling Volatility Shows Potential
Matrixport released a chart showing that as the US presidential election approaches, market traders' anxiety has risen, but Bitcoin remains in a neutral zone. Currently, Bitcoin's 21-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 56%, well below the 70% overbought threshold, indicating that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold.
Since a neutral RSI usually means traders are less impacted by market swings, the neutral RSI suggests Bitcoin's risk premium (including high implied volatility) may decline after the election. This contrasts sharply with the bear market decline in March when the RSI reached 80%, and the significant rebound in July and August when the RSI was only 25%. Considering this, selling volatility this week appears to be a potentially attractive strategy.
Morgan Stanley Strategist: "Fear of Missing Out" Could Push the S&P 500 Index to 6,100 Points by Year-End
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson believes the S&P 500 index may continue to rise before the end of the year, with a 5% increase from current levels not impossible, as investors breathe a sigh of relief after the US presidential election and experience "fear of missing out" (FOMO) at year-end. But the strategist warned that this enthusiasm may wane as 2025 approaches, as there are no obvious catalysts. "I think we could see 6,000, if there's not too much panic, and people feel good about things," Wilson said. This would represent a rise of nearly 5% from Friday's close around 5,728. Wilson later added that the S&P 500 index could rise as high as 6,100, but due to high valuations and difficulty for the price-to-earnings ratio to expand further as 2025 approaches, the index will not break this level "under any circumstances" this year.
Morgan Stanley: The Market Should Remain Cautious in the Face of Uncertainty Surrounding the US Election
According to Michael D Zezas, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, the main goal for investors during the US election should be to build situational awareness and avoid overconfidence in the election outcome and market impact. Investors may benefit from adjusting their expectations. He said the market-implied probability of a Republican victory appears to be rising, leading some to expect a clear result on election night. Morgan Stanley believes this scenario is possible but not the most likely. Neither candidate seems to be the clear favorite to win the Electoral College, so a prolonged vote-counting scenario similar to 2020 is possible. Given the poor track record of early voting data, Morgan Stanley does not put much stock in these data points and advises against over-interpreting short-term market moves. The company said the market's short-term reaction to the election is often noisy and may not foreshadow medium-term trends.
Analyst: Trump victory may reduce likelihood of Fed rate cuts
Sonja Marten, an analyst at Germany's Zentral Genossenschaftsbank, said in a report that a Trump victory could reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, thereby benefiting the US dollar. She said Trump's tariff and immigration plans are expected to stoke inflation, while tax cuts will lead to a short-term economic boom. "All of this would significantly reduce the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates. In this scenario, the dollar is expected to see a clear and positive reaction."
Commonwealth Bank of Australia: If Harris wins, the dollar may depreciate 1%-2% this week
The New Zealand dollar strengthened against the US dollar in early trading on Tuesday ahead of the US presidential election. Commonwealth Bank of Australia's (CBA) global economics and markets research team said in a report that the dollar "may trade in a wide range this week" due to the election. The team said the dollar may rise if Trump is leading in early in-person vote counts. However, Democratic voters are more likely to vote by mail or early in-person, which will take longer to tabulate, the team said. As a result, the team said Trump's lead may narrow or disappear later this week. The team added that if Harris wins, the US dollar may depreciate 1%-2% this week.
More exciting content to be updated...
