Author: Huang Shiliang
The next US president is about to be announced, and major global capital markets have been reacting very intensely recently, including US stocks and cryptocurrencies, especially the crypto market.
From the sentiment on the internet, it seems that the crypto market's capital is particularly afraid of Trump's defeat. I feel that this is completely unnecessary.
The biggest feature of the US system is the separation of powers, and a president can do a lot, but it is difficult to bring about earth-shaking changes.
Trump has been bullish on Crypto in the past few months, making all kinds of exaggerated remarks, claiming to turn the US into a crypto digital currency paradise. But can these be taken seriously? Doubt is more rational.
For example, Trump said he wants to treat BTC as a US strategic reserve. This... The US doesn't even let the president decide the gold reserves, if you still believe the US is a market economy, then the gold reserves must be based on economic and financial stability, how could it be decided by the president.
If the president could decide to include Bitcoin in the strategic reserves, then what are the Treasury and the Federal Reserve for, what is the legislation of Congress for.
If Trump is really that powerful, why doesn't he just appoint himself president instead of running for election?
It's just that Trump is talking about Bitcoin, if he was talking about some stocks, I bet the SEC would sue him for market manipulation.
Just look at the TikTok ban issue in the US, in the previous administration Trump wanted to kill TikTok, and the Biden administration also has the same intention, but there is still no clear result so far. This is just dealing with one company, it's not something a president can decide on their own. Count the game here, the presidential executive order, the national security review, the discussion in Congress, and the multiple interventions of the courts, the final decision power is scattered among multiple departments. The president's decision-making power is indeed limited.
This has to be said to be an advantage of the US system, the change of the president will not lead to a major change in national policies and people's livelihood issues.
Looking at Chinese history, one of the biggest problems with 2,000 years of imperial power is the issue of succession. The current succession system in the US is very worth learning from.
Crypto friends, have you been watching too many palace dramas and think that changing a president can have a earth-shaking impact on the crypto market.
Sigh, if I keep talking, I'll turn into a US apologist.
Also, I think Trump's behavior in the crypto market looks pretty ugly.
On Opensea, you can find a total of four NFT projects directly related to Trump, all of which are legitimate and have a direct relationship with Trump, and buying NFTs can get special benefits, such as a part of Trump's debate suit, attending a golf club dinner, etc. [1]. Without exception, these NFTs are all trash.
And just last month, the Trump family also released a DeFi project, WLF, let's hope it doesn't end in a mess.
If anyone else issued these projects, they would probably be cursed in the crypto market, but as a former president, he can make some money from the crypto market, which can be seen as the industry's advertising fee paid to him. However, I think this advertising fee is very worthwhile. Trump is undoubtedly the top influencer in the world today, and he can make a few tens of millions of dollars from the crypto market in exchange for a few words of praise, which is too profitable for the crypto market.
Just from the way he is working hard to advertise the crypto market, if he becomes president, he should be a boon for the crypto market.
Including Musk, many people have claimed that if Harris is elected, the stock market will crash, the economy will be a disaster, and World War 3 will break out, and if the Trump emperor takes office, everyone will become rich and prosperous within three days.
Oh my, even a man's Valentine's Day vows can't be like this, or he'll be struck by lightning.
From the actual economic effects, Biden is very friendly to cryptocurrencies, he's not just bluffing, although he's a bit senile, but during his tenure, the launch of BTC and ETH ETFs and the new high of BTC have actually happened.
The US stock market has also performed very well during Biden's tenure.
As Biden's vice president, Harris is more likely to continue Biden's policies.
How did it turn into the netizens' view that Harris taking office would lead to a plunge in cryptocurrency prices? I really don't believe it.
My view is not to say that whoever is elected will have no impact on the crypto market, I just feel that it is impossible to have an extreme impact, a slight increase in normal market volatility is normal.
Compared to the short-term impact of a new president taking office, a more important factor is whether the overall US economy and the global economy can continue to improve.
Regardless of who is elected, the real factors affecting the crypto market and other capital markets are the fundamentals of the US economy, including inflation levels, employment data, interest rate policies, and the international economic situation. These economic factors determine the market's liquidity and investors' risk appetite, not a single political leader. Therefore, focusing on the macroeconomic trend is the key to judging the long-term market trend, rather than being obsessed with the short-term fluctuations caused by the change of administration.
Finally, let's have some fun and guess the election results.
I guess Trump will win.
My reason is: Musk is too far-sighted.
When Musk bought Twitter two years ago, he said he would buy it in April 2022 and the deal was closed in October. At that time, I felt that Musk had changed, he was no longer great, in the past he would go do things that no one else was doing, shouldn't he be boasting about going to colonize Mars, how come now he wants to spend almost all his assets to buy Twitter, buy a social product that entrepreneurs have already killed each other for? This is too mediocre.
I thought at the time that he was buying Twitter for greater influence.
But this year, the US presidential election year, X.com has become the center of the election game, becoming Musk's biggest political capital (probably also one of Trump's biggest political capitals).
To start laying the groundwork two years ago, to spend almost all his assets to do this kind of layout, this can almost be called (half) a scorched earth strategy.
Just thinking about it, it's amazing.
Now, spending $40 billion to buy X, and X has become the largest global political stage, Musk has won big, this business is done, much better than going to Mars and boasting.
Compared to Musk's moves, I feel that the current President Biden and his current presidential candidate Harris, due to the change of position in the middle, are completely impossible to have a similar long-term layout.
So I think Trump will win.
