"The Bitcoin President"
On May 22, Trump's campaign team released an announcement on its official website, stating that its campaign will begin accepting Bitcoin donations. Trump supporters can donate to Trump using any cryptocurrency accepted by the Coinbase Commerce product.
The announcement read: "Biden's proxy Elizabeth Warren, in her attack on cryptocurrencies, said she is building an 'anti-cryptocurrency army' to restrict the right of Americans to make their own financial choices......MAGA supporters now have a new cryptocurrency option, and they will build a cryptocurrency army on November 5 to drive the campaign to victory!"
Trump's recognition of cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, can be said to be unprecedented in the history of world politics. Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss posted on social media that "the Harris-Biden administration has made the crypto industry pay $500 million in legal fees. Vote for Trump, and that number will drop to zero; vote for Harris, and the fees will skyrocket into the billions."
Related reading: On the Eve of the Storm, Trump "Invigorated"
In addition to a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies, Trump may also be the first presidential candidate to personally participate in the cryptocurrency industry. He has expressed his children's love for cryptocurrencies more than once and has participated in cryptocurrency efforts. World Liberty Financial plans to provide cryptocurrency lending services on the Ethereum blockchain network. It will be more "user-friendly" and accessible than existing solutions, and will be based on the non-transferable WLFI governance token.
Before announcing the token distribution, Trump spent 30 minutes on Twitter Space talking about his understanding of Crypto. This 78-year-old veteran, who has experienced two failed assassination attempts in less than two months, continued to express his love for Crypto and his attacks on Harris in the live broadcast. He praised his children's enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies, recognized the development of cryptocurrencies, and was surprised by the success of NFT offerings and the proportion of payments made through cryptocurrencies.
Therefore, the cryptocurrency industry is more obvious in choosing sides for Trump. The cryptocurrency industry's donations for the 2024 U.S. presidential election have reached $94 million, a record high. At the same time, core crypto industry players like venture capital firm a16z and crypto trading platform Coinbase have also shown absolute support for the Republican candidate.
How are Trump's chances on the "Eve of the Storm"?
Just like his performance when he was shot at, Trump's political tactics are very mature. At the last moment, he chose to campaign in New York, a state that has belonged to the Democratic Party since 1984, and the effect was surprisingly good. The stock price of the Trump Media Group (DJT.US) soared more than 21% on Monday. In addition, with his New York background and the financial deregulation policies during his previous presidency, he has won the support of many on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley, such as "PayPal Mafia" member Peter Thiel and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. Musk has also been unwavering in his support for Trump, campaigning daily in the key swing states and distributing $1 million to voters. He joked that his investment in Trump is the riskiest bet of his career, and if Trump loses, he will be "done".
The betting data this year is a very worthy weather vane, because the bettors are playing with real money. Unlike opinion polls generally showing the two sides evenly matched, although the specific numbers differ somewhat, due to Trump's emphasis on getting closer to the cryptocurrency circle in this election campaign, he has shown an extremely "right-wing" tendency on almost all cryptocurrency prediction platforms.
According to data from Polymarket, on October 30, the platform showed that Trump had a 67% chance of winning the presidential election on November 5. However, it is worth noting that Polymarket does not allow U.S. users, so this winning rate may not represent the opinions of all U.S. voters. Currently, the largest user placing bets is a Frenchman, who has placed $45 million in bets across four accounts betting on Trump winning the November election.
As of November 5, the data on PolyMarket further differentiated on the election results. Currently, the data shows that Trump's winning probability has risen from 57.9% yesterday to 58.5%.
Vice President Harris' lead in the latest poll data has further strengthened, leading Trump by 51:47 and 51:49 on the PBS News Marist and Forbes News HarrisX platforms respectively, while the two are still tied at 49:49 on NBC News and the New York Post, and the situation remains to be further observed today.
In this election, 8 swing states including Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin will have a critical or even decisive impact on the final election result, and are seen as the battlefield between Harris and Trump. Yesterday morning, multiple mainstream media reported that Harris had unexpectedly surpassed Trump in Iowa, winning the first swing state.
Currently, Harris' lead in Wisconsin has further expanded from 0.3 to 0.4, while her advantage in Michigan has declined from 0.9 to 0.6. On the other hand, Trump's lead in the remaining 5 states, except Arizona and Nevada, has declined.
When will the election results be announced?
In the current election situation, the performance of the seven swing states will become the focus, including key states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which have determined the final victory or defeat with a small margin of votes in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Due to the "winner-take-all" rule, these swing states have become the focus of the two parties' campaigns, and the affiliation of every vote may determine the final result. On the Republican side, 93% of registered voters say they will vote, while on the Democratic side it is 89%. This shows the high voting willingness of both parties' voters in the intense election situation, and the strong support base of the two parties has also made this election one of the most suspenseful in recent years.
After the election day voting ends, each state will start counting the votes according to its own voting time, generally starting around 7 p.m. local time. However, the United States spans multiple time zones, which means that the votes on the East Coast are often counted earlier, while voters in Alaska and Hawaii may still be voting. Typically, preliminary results can be obtained in the late evening of the East Coast, but if the election is deadlocked, the final result may not be revealed for days or even weeks.
