Over the past week, the market has been highly volatile due to the US election. When the odds of Trump winning on Polymarket rose to 67%, the BTC price briefly broke through $73,620. However, as the weekend's opinion polls showed a tight race between Trump and Harris, Trump's winning odds fell to 55%, and on November 5, the BTC price also fell back briefly, with the lowest level reaching $67,059. $70,000 has become the latest resistance level for the BTC price. As of the release of this article, the BTC price is fluctuating around $68,800 (the above data is from Binance spot, 3:00 PM on November 05).
The US election is about to be settled, and the market is waiting for the election results. On November 4, Eastern Time, the three major US stock indexes closed lower. The US election, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and US corporate earnings have become the biggest focus of the macro market this week.
Market Analysis
The first voting results in the election are out, with Trump and Harris each getting 3 votes
The town of Dixville Notch in New Hampshire announced the voting results of 6 voters, with Harris and Trump each receiving three votes in the town of Dixville Notch in New Hampshire, and four Republican voters and two unaffiliated voters participated in the voting.
Affected by the US election and daylight saving time, the Fed's interest rate meeting is postponed by one day
Affected by the US election and daylight saving time, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision at 3:00 am Beijing time on November 8 (Friday). Traditionally, the Federal Reserve holds its interest rate meetings on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, and announces the decision results in the early morning of Thursday Beijing time, but this time it coincides with the US election voting, so the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is postponed by one day.
Microstrategy announces a $42 billion BTC investment plan, which may catalyze the long-term development of BTC
Last week, Microstrategy announced a three-year $42 billion BTC investment plan, mainly raising funds through the issuance of stocks and convertible bonds to increase its BTC holdings. In the long run, this plan may push up the BTC price.
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The election data is in a stalemate, and the market is still unclear about the election results, and traders have also lost their trading direction. CME BTC options data shows that the market's demand for hedging against price declines has increased, indicating traders' concerns about a BTC price decline during the election cycle. However, many analysts believe that the upward trend of BTC will not change due to the choice of the president.
Whether Trump or Harris is elected, the divergence in asset trends caused by their economic policies, as well as a soft landing, hard landing or no landing of the US economy. At the same time, October data shows that the expectations of "tax cuts" and "decoupling between China and the US" in Trump's economic policy will inevitably lead to a further rise in the scale of US debt, and a serious sell-off of US debt.
Against this background, it is a good choice to make reasonable asset allocation and ensure a certain proportion of stable returns. For example, stable structured products such as Shark Fin or Trend Smart, can obtain relatively good additional returns on the basis of cost protection, suitable for investors who are bullish on the long-term trend of BTC and ETH. Meanwhile, Matrixport's RWA platform Matrixdock has recently launched the gold token XAUm, providing a new choice for gold investment in crypto. XAUm is fully supported by LBMA standard physical gold bars with a purity of not less than 99.99%, and has opened up physical redemption services in Hong Kong and Singapore.
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