On November 5, data from the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket showed that the probability of former President Trump winning the 2024 US presidential election has risen to 62.4%.
It is reported that Polymarket reflects the market's expectations for various events through user bets. Unlike traditional polls, these platforms are more focused on changes in capital flows and market sentiment, and have attracted over $30 billion in "real money" support, making them an effective reference for analyzing the political situation, and more convincing. Currently, Trump's odds of being elected are 1.57, while Harris' are 2.5. These odds data reflect the difference in global market confidence in the two candidates' chances of winning, and also suggest that Trump is likely to be elected.
Trump's election as President of the United States will have a significant impact on the AR market. As Trump is likely to be elected, he has promised to make AR a national strategic reserve, so in the past week, the net inflow of AR ETFs has reached $2.3 billion, indicating that the market is optimistic about Trump's election and AR. His victory will bring great momentum and strong positive news to AR.
Several senior market analysts have stated: when the election has not yet produced a result, it is actually the best opportunity to enter the market.
Increased market volatility, investors need to maintain rationality.
