Odaily星球日报讯 据 Lookonchain 监测，Polymarket 上预测特朗普胜选概率一度升至 75%，比哈里斯高出 50 个百分点。 当前押注特朗普胜选的头号用户浮盈 340 万美元，若特朗普最终胜选，其获利可能会超过 1100 万美元。

Odaily星球日报讯 据 Lookonchain 监测，Polymarket 上预测特朗普胜选概率一度升至 75%，比哈里斯高出 50 个百分点。当前押注特朗普胜选的头号用户浮盈 340 万美元，若特朗普最终胜选，其获利可能会超过 1100 万美元。

Polymarket上押注特朗普胜选头号用户浮盈340万美元，若特朗普胜选或获利超1100万美元

According to Lookonchain monitoring, the probability of Trump's victory on Polymarket once rose to 75%, 50 percentage points higher than Harris. The top user betting on Trump's victory is currently floating a profit of $3.4 million, and if Trump ultimately wins, his profit may exceed $11 million.

The top user betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket made a profit of $3.4 million. If Trump wins, the profit could exceed $11 million

Here is the English translation:

On November 5, data from the decentralized prediction market platform <Polymarket> showed that the probability of former President Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election has risen to 62.4%.

It is reported that Polymarket reflects the market's expectations for various events through user bets. Unlike traditional polls, this type of platform is more focused on changes in capital flows and market sentiment, and has attracted over $30 billion in "real money" support, making it an effective reference for analyzing the political situation, and more convincing. Currently, Trump's odds of being elected are 1.57, while Harris' are 2.5. These odds data reflect the difference in global market confidence in the two candidates' chances of winning, and also suggest that Trump is likely to be elected.

Trump's election as President of the United States will have a significant impact on the Bitcoin market. As Trump is likely to be elected, since he has promised to make Bitcoin a national strategic reserve, in the past week, the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs has reached $2.3 billion, indicating that the market is optimistic about Trump's election and Bitcoin. His victory will bring great momentum and a strong positive boost to Bitcoin.

Several senior market analysts have stated: the best time to enter the market is when the election results are not yet known.

Market volatility is increasing, and investors need to maintain rationality.

4E View: Trump’s election may set off the Bitcoin market, odds and prediction platforms suggest a higher chance of winning

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Trump's contract on the Polymarket platform has reached $0.65, up from the previous $0.60; Harris' contract is currently priced at $0.35.

Trump contract hits 65 cents on Polymarket, 30 cents ahead of Harris contract

Odaily Planet Daily Report: QCP Capital stated that "as the odds on Polymarket gradually approach the actual poll results, the election competition between Harris and Trump is becoming increasingly intense. Although Polymarket's odds still favor Trump at 55%, this is a significant decline from 66% a week ago. The relatively small price fluctuations over the weekend, as well as the reduction in the positions of perpetual contracts on various exchanges from 3 billion to 2.6 billion, indicate that the market remains cautious. Does this foreshadow a period of calm before breaking out of the price range that has lasted for months and reaching new historical highs? The options market seems to think so, as we have seen an increase in long positions since last Friday, with a large number of options expiring at the end of November with a strike price of $75,000. At the same time, as the actual volatility remains at 40% and the implied volatility has risen above 87% on Friday, positions in options related to the election date are also increasing. We expect the spot price to fluctuate within this range before the election results become clearer this week. If Trump wins, it is likely to immediately trigger a price increase, while if Harris wins, it may trigger a price drop."