Master Translator Discusses Hot Topics:
Today is also a historic day, as the US election has entered the final voting stage. However, many friends see the percentage of votes and shout "this is stable, that is stable", but they start celebrating after only counting 5%, which is truly optimistic.
You need to know that the US vote counting is a county-by-county summary, and the order of the states is different: some states count mail-in ballots first, some later, some start with big cities (blue), and some with rural areas (red). So the initial "lead" or "lag" actually doesn't mean much, you need to figure out what kind of votes have been counted.
So you need to keep a close eye on the situation, just looking at the numbers is useless, you need to do in-depth analysis. For example, in the swing state of Wisconsin, if you are a Democratic supporter, don't be happy just because Harris is leading.
You need to see if the votes counted so far are mainly from big cities (blue areas), if Harris is leading 55%:45% in Milwaukee, don't rush to celebrate. In 2020, Biden was 60:40 here, so this kind of lead may not be stable enough.
Also, if Harris is temporarily behind in North Carolina, don't be pessimistic. Look at Charlotte (deep blue) which has only counted 6%, this means the blue votes haven't fully come in yet. To understand the situation, you need to understand the rules first. Otherwise, it's just guessing, better to wait for the final result.
By the way, a few days ago, the market was still discussing who would win and the impact on the market, but now it has become surprisingly quiet. Everyone is holding their breath, as if they are afraid that saying one more word will prove Murphy's law.
If you are in the world, but don't understand the tricks of capital, don't know how your wealth is accumulated or lost, in the end you can only passively accept the arrangement of fate. The election result is certainly worth paying attention to, but it doesn't have a substantive impact on Master Translator's trading decisions.
And Master Translator is more focused on long-term trends and techniques, which is more important than just waiting for external news and letting others determine your fate.
Perhaps we will know the election result in the next two days, but this is not the end. The real dust will not settle until the House of Representatives confirms it, and there may even be another round of Fed meetings.
If you can only dare to act when all risks have disappeared, then the market opportunities will be out of your reach. This traditional trading method of always being influenced by external factors and passively waiting for opportunities is often futile. By the time the market goes up, the opportunity has already quietly disappeared.
The real truth is: the external environment cannot be changed, the only thing that can be changed is yourself. By constantly improving your cognition, you can understand the market cycle and the operations of the big players.
After rational analysis, Master Translator believes that Bitcoin is only a small part of the risk market in the US, and it can only barely show its face through ETFs. Compared to US stocks and US bonds, it is still far behind. The policy expectations of the presidential election are the main factors affecting the market, related to the overall direction of the US economy.
It's not that Trump is bad, but from the current policies, the increased spending on national defense, infrastructure, immigration and taxes may increase the deficit by $7.5 trillion over the next decade, which is not good for the US dollar, US bonds, and inflation. This may lead to greater economic turmoil.
Even if Bitcoin occasionally surges and even breaks new highs again (it doesn't matter), it still needs the overall market to be linked to US stocks, if US stocks fall, Bitcoin will also find it difficult to rise independently.
So we focus on the US economy, for fear of black swans or recessions. After all, the policies between the two parties are about the same when it comes to economic development, so the old saying still applies: trade well if you trade, and enjoy the melon slowly if you don't.
Master Translator Looks at Trends:
Yesterday, Master Translator pre-set a short position in the 70500 to 70800 range, and the price reached a high of around 70500 at midnight, and then continued to fall to a low of around 68668, the first target of 69000 has been realized and 1500 points have been taken.
And around 71800, a strong long position was pre-set, and the market also followed as expected, with the price continuing to rise, reaching a high of over 75600 this morning.
Bitcoin rebounded significantly due to the increased probability of Trump's election, and after hitting a new high of 75.6k, it entered an adjustment range. It has now broken through the previous high of 73.8k, showing an upward trend, and currently only the psychological resistance level needs to be watched, and it is recommended to pay attention to the key support levels.
Resistance levels reference:
First resistance level: 74500
Second resistance level: 75400
Support levels reference:
First support level: 73200
Second support level: 71800
Trading recommendations for today:
After setting a new high, you can pay attention to whether the price will consolidate in a certain range in the short term, and confirm the support level before operating. Typically, there is likely to be a short-term adjustment after a new high, so it is not recommended to chase long positions. Even if you miss the opportunity for the time being, it is recommended to patiently wait for a better entry opportunity.
11.6 Master Translator's Swing Trading Pre-set:
No swing trading, no pre-set today.
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