Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME 美联储观察，美联储 11 月降息 25 个基点仍接近完全定价，12 月进一步降息的可能性约为 66%，而周一为 77%。（金十）

CME美联储观察：美联储11月降息25基点仍接近完全定价

According to CME Fed Odaily, the Fed&#39;s 25 basis point rate cut in November is still close to being fully priced in, and the probability of a further rate cut in December is about 66%, compared to 77% on Monday. (Jinshi)

CME Fed Watch: The Fed's 25 basis point rate cut in November is still nearly fully priced

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Citi analyst Jabaz Matai said that based on the current market odds, it is attractive to bet that the Fed will not cut rates again in December. The market generally expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this week, but given the recent series of strong economic data, this may be the last rate cut by the Fed this year. His latest report recommends a swap trade where traders agree to pay a fixed annual rate of 4.404% and receive interest that floats with the Fed's target rate. If the Fed does not cut rates in December and keeps the rate between 4.5%-4.75% by the end of the year, this trade will generate a return. (Gold Ten)

Citigroup: Bets on Fed skipping rate cut in December attractive

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius still believes that the Federal Reserve will achieve its previous hint of two rate cuts by the end of the year, especially after the release of a weaker-than-expected employment report last week. He expects this situation to continue in the first half of 2025. Hatzius said in a report last Sunday that "We expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates four times in a row in the first half of 2025, with the final rate reaching 3.25%-3.5%, but we have greater uncertainty about the pace and ultimate target of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts next year," he added that his forecast is about 50 basis points higher than the market consensus. (Gold Ten)

Goldman Sachs: We firmly believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year and four times in the first half of next year

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Shelton Capital Management's Shelton Tactical Credit Fund portfolio manager Jeffrey Rosenkranz said that the October employment report last Friday helped refute concerns that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cut in September may have been premature. That is, based on CME data, he does not fully believe that there will be two more 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of the year, even as interest rate futures traders have started to expect such an outcome. Although Powell will almost certainly be asked about the election, or how the rise in US Treasury yields will affect their thinking, Rosenkranz expects Powell is likely to dissent. (Gold Ten)