With Trump's victory, Bitcoin has broken out of its 8-month consolidation pattern, hitting a new high of $76,400 in the early hours of the morning, and is about to enter a $76,600-$77,700 range. Once it reaches $76,000, it means $73,800 has been firmly established. The next target after breaking through this level is $80,000. The focus now is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Friday morning. Usually, there is a drop during such meetings, so be prepared for volatility. More information Crypto Dumplings
The current high-level consolidation range is focused on the $72,700 to $75,000 range, which is the short-term fluctuation range. High-level fluctuations mean opportunities for small-cap coins, so look for opportunities on the market, find coins with high trading volume, coins at the bottom of the formation, and coins that have been popular in the last one or two months.
For BTC, my view is that once it creates a new high, it will attract a wave of wealth, and a wave of the market will reach a high level, at which point opportunities can be found to make good short-term trades. In the medium to long term, I see BTC reaching $100,000.
What else is worth looking forward to at the moment?
The election has been settled, but this is actually just one factor in the cycle, and not even the most important one. In the trend and cycle, we can foresee:
1. The impact of the BTC halving cycle, which often occurs around the time of the election.
2. FASB will officially take effect in December 2024.
3. SAB121 will be resubmitted in 2025, and the approval rate will be very high this time.
4. More importantly, the Fed's monetary policy has shifted from tightening to easing.
These events will occur in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, and the easing monetary policy itself is an ongoing process that will continue to increase investors' risk appetite and greatly help stimulate on-chain liquidity. The current market trend is more like the top divergence pattern from July to November 2021, and we are now closer to the first wave of July-September 2021.
The top divergence bull market can last until Q1 2025. If it follows the 2021 pattern, there should be a relatively large correction around $75,000 before another push towards $86,000.
This is not any kind of bearish view, the current trend is fully bullish. We are about to witness an unprecedented bull market, with Trump + Musk supporting crypto, and CZ returning, it will be a grand bull market, and we will meet at the top.
What sectors will benefit from Trump's election?
First, with Trump's victory, the most important thing is that he has a project that is about to be launched, which is WLFI, which can be understood as a DeFi or RWA project. This will help the development and breakout of the crypto sector. At the same time, SCR can also be watched, as Trump's issued token WLFI is built on SCR.
Secondly, the first thing Trump did after being elected was to remove the SEC chairman. Once Gensler, who has been suppressing the crypto sector for years, is gone, things that the SEC previously did not allow, such as institutions buying ETH ETFs for collateral and earning yield, or some tokens deemed securities by the SEC being able to pay dividends openly, and some projects currently in litigation with the SEC may also be potential beneficiaries.
In summary, the future focus will be relatively clear, namely the ETH sector + DeFi + RWA sector, with the strongest performance coming from the combination of the three, such as LDO, ENS, AAVE, etc. Coupled with the DeFi of competitive public chains like SOL, SUI, and APT, which also performed strongly today, as well as DEX-type projects that are potential dividend-paying coins like UNI.
Some thoughts on the current popular Altcoins:
XRP: Ripple has also shown a slight upward trend, and is expected to have further upward momentum in the near future.
SOL: The SOL price has surged, the trend is still strong, and the upward trend linked to the overall market is still favored.
DOGE - Musk is fully supporting Trump, and DOGE is deeply tied to Musk, so Trump's victory will naturally be reflected in DOGE, which is also a catalyst for the recent continuous upward trend.
BCH: The BCH trend is also very strong, rising in line with the overall market, and the outlook remains bullish.
AAVE - Similar to the arguments for Uniswap, AAVE as one of the leaders in the DeFi sector is a generally strong project.
UNI - With Trump's victory, the Unichain will likely quickly eliminate SEC risks, and the market has fully affirmed this, so there may be a corrective pullback in the short term.
Finally
With the election settled, if there is a normal 25 basis point rate cut on the 8th, this will be the start of the main bull market wave. Barring any black swan events, cherish the next few months, as the main bull wave, if it starts, can make more money in these few months than in the past few years!
Of course, it is worth noting that everyone must not open contracts, because after BTC breaks a new high, there is a high probability that it will make a comeback to deleverage, and do not fall at the dawn.
Because in the short term, "sell the news" often occurs, as the expected has been discounted, the market is likely to make an adjustment, just like when the ETF was approved, the expectation was met and it started to decline.
There are too many long positions in the futures market, a shake-out of the shorts will make the road smoother. If there is a pullback, please go all-in! The certainty of this opportunity comes once every 4 years! When this round of correction ends, the target is the vast universe!
