Donald Trump's re-election as US president has quickly ignited global market enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies, triggering a historic moment in Bitcoin trading, becoming a key topic in the financial markets this week.
Global Macroeconomic Trends
The outlook for US stocks has been volatile due to the uncertainty of quarterly earnings and the presidential election. Trump successfully won 277 electoral votes and will return to the White House, with the market reacting quickly. Dow Jones futures surged more than 1,200 points (about 3%), Nasdaq futures rose nearly 2%, and Russell 2000 futures soared over 6%, while Bitcoin rose 9% after Trump's election news, and the US dollar index hit a new high recently. This series of fluctuations indicates that the market is full of expectations for a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under the Trump administration.
Notably, BlackRock's Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) recorded over $1 billion in trading volume in the first 20 minutes after Trump's election, a historic event reflecting investors' strong optimism about Bitcoin. Analysts point out that the market expects changes in the US political landscape to lead to a more positive crypto regulatory environment, further boosting institutional investors' interest in digital assets.
US Market
US Q3 GDP grew 2.8%, slightly slower than the previous quarter, but consumption and government spending remained stable. ADP employment grew by 233,000 in October, a new high since July 2023. Affected by the election results and earnings season, US stocks have seen significant volatility recently, but are expected to return to fundamentals and continue the upward trend as the election results become clearer.
The US bond market, however, has experienced the most severe sell-off in five years, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising 24 basis points at one point, reflecting the market's expectations of higher inflation under Trump. In addition, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) data, the 30-year mortgage contract rate rose 8 basis points to 6.81% in the week ending November 1, the highest since July. Investors are closely watching the Fed's policy decision later this week, with most market participants expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut, and any unexpected hold on rates could lead to significant market volatility.
European Market
Eurozone Q3 GDP grew 0.4%, better than expected, with the German economy growing 0.2% and avoiding a recession. Eurozone annual growth reached 0.9%, a new high since 2023. The market reacted positively to the growth data, with expectations of a smaller rate cut and rising bond yields, putting pressure on bond prices.
Asian Market
The Japanese House of Representatives election has ended, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito alliance failing to reach a majority, potentially leading to the formation of a new coalition. Smaller parties like the Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People have gained influence, with a tendency towards fiscal expansion and monetary easing, supporting the economy.
Commodity Market
Spot gold prices have fallen back after hitting a record high in October, dropping nearly 2% and currently hovering around $2,750. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have continued to affect oil prices, but oil prices did not see a significant increase in October, indicating relatively limited market volatility.
Bond Market
The US bond market has seen a rise in yields, with the 30-year Treasury yield jumping 24 basis points at one point, reflecting the market's increased expectations of higher inflation under Trump. The rise in US bond yields reflects investors' reassessment of the future. In addition, Bloomberg data shows that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded $1 billion in trading volume shortly after opening, indicating strong market interest in Bitcoin. Other Bitcoin ETFs have also seen similar high trading volumes, suggesting that the market expects Trump's presidency to accelerate the US becoming the "global capital of cryptocurrencies".
Analysts point out that under the leadership of a new administration supportive of cryptocurrencies, the future outlook for Bitcoin may be more optimistic. Fadi Aboualfa, Head of Research at crypto custodian Copper.co, predicts that the Bitcoin price could reach $100,000 when Trump takes office, a forecast supported by valuation models. Market observers will closely monitor how future policies will affect cryptocurrencies, particularly a more favorable regulatory environment that could accelerate industry development.
The above content is from public market information and is for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market carries high risks, and investment requires caution.
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