Odaily星球日报讯 美国银行表示，10 月非农数据的疲软程度足以使美联储在 11 月和 12 月各降息 25 个基点。鲍威尔可能会强调经济的稳固和通胀目标的回归。特朗普重返白宫或使美联储未来更加谨慎。

美国银行：10月非农数据的疲软程度足以使美联储在11月和12月各降息25个基点

Odaily Odaily News: Bank of America said that the weakness of October non-farm data was enough for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December. Powell may emphasize the solidity of the economy and the return of inflation targets. Trump&#39;s return to the White House may make the Federal Reserve more cautious in the future.

Bank of America: October non-farm data is weak enough for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December

According to the CME "FED Watch", the probability of the FED cutting by 25 basis points in November is 99.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 0.6%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by December is 32.0%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 67.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 0.4%.

The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in November is 99.4%.

Odaily Planet Daily reported that TD Securities said that after Trump's victory, the latest market reaction indicates that the market expects a combination of tax cuts and tariffs, which will push up the Federal Reserve's neutral interest rate. We are revising our forecast for the Federal Reserve, as rising inflation will slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025. We now expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in November, December and January, and then pause rate cuts in March. The Federal Reserve will continue the "rate cut-pause-rate cut" pace in 2025, and by the end of 2025, the interest rate will be lowered to 3.5%, which is higher than the previous expectation of 3.0%. In the first half of 2026, the Federal Reserve will cut rates to 3.0%, which means we do not see any changes in the neutral interest rate, only that the Federal Reserve will reach there later. (Gold Ten)

TD Securities: The Fed will reach a neutral interest rate later

According to CME Fed Watch, a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in November is still close to fully priced in, while the probability of a further rate cut in December is around 66%, down from 77% on Monday. (Gold Ten)