中金研报指出，通胀与经济数据可能在 2025 年年中逐步回升，使得降息逐步停止。2025 年 CPI 同比处于 2% 以上水平，3Q25 在 2.5% 左右。特朗普当选尤其是“共和党全胜”下，利率的上行风险大于下行风险。综合测算 3.5% 左右的降息幅度（即对应再度降息 100bp）或是合适水平。

<div>中金研报指出，通胀与经济数据可能在 2025 年年中逐步回升，使得降息逐步停止。2025 年 CPI 同比处于 2% 以上水平，3Q25 在 2.5% 左右。特朗普当选尤其是“共和党全胜”下，利率的上行风险大于下行风险。综合测算 3.5% 左右的降息幅度（即对应再度降息 100bp）或是合适水平。<br><br></div>

中金：通胀可能在 2025 年年中逐步回升，使得降息逐步停止

The CICC research report points out that inflation and economic data may gradually rebound around mid-2025, causing the interest rate cut to gradually stop. In 2025, the year-on-year CPI will be above 2%, and around 2.5% in 3Q25. Especially with the election of Trump and the "Republican sweep", the upside risk of interest rates is greater than the downside risk. Comprehensive calculations suggest that a rate cut of around 3.5% (i.e., corresponding to another 100bp rate cut) may be an appropriate level.

The CICC research report points out that inflation and economic data may gradually rebound in the middle of 2025, causing the interest rate cut to gradually stop. The CPI year-on-year in 2025 will be above 2%, and around 2.5% in 3Q25. Especially with the election of Trump and the "Republican sweep", the upside risk of interest rates is greater than the downside risk. Comprehensive calculations show that a rate cut of around 3.5% (corresponding to another 100bp rate cut) may be an appropriate level.

CICC: Inflation may gradually pick up by mid-2025, leading to a gradual halt to interest rate cuts

Trump's victory has pushed up inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve has roughly confirmed a 25 basis point rate cut in November. The market expects that the rate cuts may be coming to an end in the medium term, but the economic situation will affect subsequent policy adjustments.

The most important indicator after the election: Will Trump’s economic policies put an end to the Fed’s monetary easing?

Odaily Planet Daily Report: According to Sarah House and Aubrey Woessner of Wells Fargo, inflation in the US may still be higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released next week for October "may show that progress in eliminating the last bit of inflation remains frustratingly slow." They forecast that the overall CPI for October will increase by 0.2%, the same as in September, causing the annual rate to rise from 2.4% to 2.5%. Core CPI is expected to increase by 0.3% for the third consecutive month, keeping the annual rate at 3.3%. House and Woessner added that Trump's proposed policies may put upward pressure on prices and delay the return of inflation to the Federal Reserve's target.

Wells Fargo: U.S. inflation is expected to remain above the Fed's target

Odaily Planet Daily News: Morgan Chase has revised its forecast for the US Federal Reserve's interest rate in 2025, predicting a rate cut once per quarter starting in March. (Gold Ten)