Odaily星球日报讯 摩根大通 Teresa Ho 等策略师预计，鉴于流动性状况在 10 月底之后已经恢复正常，美联储将于 2025 年一季度结束量化紧缩（QT，即缩减资产负债表），此前预计会在 2024 年年底之前完成这个过程。美国国库券和回购供应双双增加、货币市场基金在宽松预期减弱的情况下寻求向更长期限拓展，均从美联储的隔夜逆回购工具中抽走了更多资金。（金十）

摩根大通：美联储料将在2025年Q1结束缩表而非2024年底之前

Odaily Odaily: JPMorgan Chase&#39;s Teresa Ho and other strategists expect that the Fed will end quantitative tightening (QT, i.e., balance sheet reduction) in the first quarter of 2025, given that liquidity conditions have returned to normal after the end of October. Previously, it was expected to complete the process by the end of 2024. The increase in the supply of U.S. Treasury bonds and repurchases, and the expansion of money market funds to longer maturities amid weakening expectations of easing have all drawn more funds from the Fed&#39;s overnight reverse repurchase facility. (Jinshi)

JPMorgan Chase: The Fed is expected to end its balance sheet reduction in Q1 2025 rather than before the end of 2024

The CICC research report points out that inflation and economic data may gradually rebound around mid-2025, causing the interest rate cut to gradually stop. In 2025, the year-on-year CPI will be above 2%, and around 2.5% in 3Q25. Especially with the election of Trump and the "Republican sweep", the upside risk of interest rates is greater than the downside risk. Comprehensive calculations suggest that a rate cut of around 3.5% (i.e., corresponding to another 100bp rate cut) may be an appropriate level.

CICC: Inflation may gradually pick up by mid-2025, leading to a gradual halt to interest rate cuts

Odaily Odaily News: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that we are ready to adjust our assessment of the pace and target of interest rate changes, and as we approach the neutral interest rate, it may be necessary to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts. (Jinshi)

Fed Chair Powell: Slower pace of rate cuts may be necessary as we approach neutral rate

The Federal Reserve FOMC statement: Maintaining the pace of balance sheet reduction. (Reducing $25 billion in US Treasuries and $35 billion in MBS per month) The labor market conditions have "generally softened". The committee members unanimously agreed on this rate decision. (The previous meeting was 11-1) (Golden Ten)