After Trump was elected President of the United States, everyone was expecting BTC to quickly break through $80,000, but it was indeed not expected that this $80,000 would come so quickly.
Micro Strategy Holdings
As a company that holds a large amount of BTC, MicroStrategy currently holds a total of 252,220 bitcoins, with a total purchase cost of approximately $9.9 billion and an average purchase price of approximately $39,266 per bitcoin. The current total value of the bitcoin holdings is $20.177 billion.
ETF Inflows
ETFs were highly anticipated when they were first launched, mainly due to the large influx of new capital, which also created new historical highs for the bitcoin price. However, the total assets of the ETFs soon began to see net outflows, and the market sentiment also began to decline. But recently, BTC ETFs have seen a continuous large inflow of capital.
Not only has the daily net inflow of capital reached a new high, but the holdings have also reached a new high. The logic is also very clear. After Trump took office, there is likely to be a "crypto-dollar", and the political forces in the US supporting crypto will become stronger and stronger. For the "big players" in traditional finance, their likelihood of allocating capital to crypto may increase, and BTC ETFs have become the most convenient channel for investing in crypto. For other US stock investors, BTC ETFs will also become very attractive under Trump's endorsement.
Interest Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, significantly exceeding expectations, and bitcoin also surged in response. The November policy meeting also decided on a 25 basis point rate cut, which is also generally understood by the market as a positive factor, after all, the starting point of the last bull market was the rate cut in March 2020.
November Historical Data
In addition to the data, there is also a sense of ritual.
According to Coinglass data, the investment returns of bitcoin in the fourth quarter after the halving events in 2012, 2016 and 2020 were all good, at 97.7%, 58.17% and 168.02% respectively. Among them, the return rate in November 2016 was 5.42%, and the return rate in November 2020 was 42.95%. The return rate this month is still worth looking forward to.
It is worth noting that bitcoin rose 7.35% in September this year, setting a historical best performance, and bitcoin has always been able to rise to the end of the year whenever it rose in September.
After the dawn, history will come.
The Future Direction of Bitcoin, How Do Traders See It?
PlanB: BTC May Reach $1 Million by the End of 2025
PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, and he enjoys a high reputation in the crypto industry for his unique asset scarcity and price relationship model. His analysis focuses on the growth potential of Bitcoin's long-term value, especially the price fluctuations after the halving events. His latest forecast points out that if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, the Bitcoin market may experience an unprecedented price surge.
In his forecast a few months ago, PlanB gave specific figures based on his S2F model:
November: If Trump wins the election, the bitcoin price will reach $100,000. PlanB believes that Trump's victory will mark a major turning point for bitcoin. He points out that Trump's presidency may bring friendly policies towards cryptocurrencies, ending the "war" on cryptocurrencies by the Biden/Harris administration, especially the policy constraints on regulatory officials like Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren, which will directly drive the bitcoin price to $100,000.
December: With massive ETF inflows, bitcoin will soar to $150,000. PlanB believes that Trump's victory will clear the way for the approval of bitcoin ETFs, and a large amount of capital is expected to flow into the market. The inflow of ETFs represents the acceptance and recognition of the mainstream financial market and the trust of investors, further pushing the bitcoin price to $150,000.
January 2025: As the crypto industry returns to the US, bitcoin will rise to $200,000. With the open crypto policy of the Trump administration, a large number of crypto companies and investors may bring their businesses back to the US. PlanB expects this to have a significant market demand effect, pushing the bitcoin price to $200,000.
February 2025: The "Power Law" team takes profits, and the price falls back to $150,000. The correction in February is a prediction of the adjustment in the bitcoin market. PlanB believes that the profit-taking by investors will lead to a temporary pullback of bitcoin to $150,000 after reaching a high. However, this adjustment will be temporary and necessary, laying a more stable foundation for the next stage of the uptrend.
March to May 2025: Bitcoin's globalization trend, the price breaks through $500,000. Starting in March, PlanB expects countries like Bhutan, Argentina, and Dubai to successively adopt bitcoin as legal tender, and in April, the US will also launch a bitcoin strategic reserve under Trump's push. Subsequently, in May, he believes other countries, especially non-EU countries, will join this wave, further pushing the bitcoin price to $500,000.
June 2025: Driven by AI, the price reaches $600,000. In June, PlanB proposed the hypothesis that artificial intelligence will start to participate autonomously in the bitcoin market arbitrage. He expects that with the participation of AI in the bitcoin market, this high-frequency trading will further drive the price increase, pushing bitcoin to break through $600,000.
July to December 2025: FOMO subsides, the price reaches $1 million. In the following months, PlanB believes that the market's FOMO sentiment will begin to subside, and bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $1 million by the end of the year. At this point, bitcoin has not only become a mainstream asset reserve, but also a must-have allocation for global investors.
2026-2027: Market adjustment and bear market. In 2026, PlanB expects the bitcoin price to correct from $1 million to $500,000, entering a distribution phase, and by 2027, the market will enter a bear market, with the bitcoin price expected to drop to $200,000.
PlanB summarizes that the key to this forecast is the scarcity value of bitcoin. He points out that scarcity will become the core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold. PlanB believes that in the next 18 months, bitcoin prices are expected to experience a leap-like growth driven by the halving effect and market demand, further consolidating its position as "digital gold" among global investors.
The key to PlanB's forecast is the scarcity value of bitcoin. He points out that investors like scarcity, and now there are basically 3 choices for scarcity: real estate (S2F 100, market cap $10 trillion), gold (S2F 60, market cap $20 trillion), or bitcoin (S2F 120, market cap $1 trillion). Therefore, the scarcity of bitcoin will become the core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold.
PlanB also presented an opposite scenario, that is, if Harris wins, he believes this will represent the "end of Western civilization" and continue to exacerbate the decline of the American empire. He expects the crypto industry will be further suppressed under the regulation of Gensler and Warren, with more stifling actions and even the possibility of more stringent tax policies such as the introduction of unrealized capital gains tax. However, he also emphasizes that bitcoin is not dependent on a specific regulatory environment, and its value drivers will still come from the global demand for scarcity.
Alex Krüger: BTC Spot on Election Night
Argentine economist, trader and consultant Alex Krüger believes the election result will directly affect the direction of the bitcoin price:
Trump's victory: Bitcoin's year-end target price is $90,000. Krüger believes that after Trump's victory, the price of Bitcoin will quickly surge to $90,000 by the end of the year, with a 55% probability of realization. In this scenario, he predicts that the price of Bitcoin will "skyrocket" because the market has already partially anticipated the positive impact of Trump's victory on cryptocurrencies. However, there is still a certain degree of undervaluation, and the market's rapid response will be immediately reflected shortly after the confirmation of the news.
The Giver: Post-election mid-term will decline
The Giver is an anonymous veteran investor with extensive experience in buy-side and sell-side financial institutions. He is currently engaged in special situation private equity investments, providing a different perspective. Compared to Krüger and PlanB, The Giver's strategy is more conservative and focused on the short-term. He believes that the Bitcoin rally driven by the election is more of a temporary phenomenon than a long-term trend. This view particularly emphasizes the driving effect of market liquidity and short-term events, and points out that Bitcoin may face a downward adjustment after the election.
The driving force behind this Bitcoin rally is the "non-sticky" buyers, i.e., some short-term speculators seeking to hedge election risks, rather than an overall trend. These buyers will not hold Bitcoin in the long run, and once the election dust settles, they may quickly exit the market. Therefore, this capital lacks "stickiness" and may face selling pressure after the election.
The lackluster performance of Altcoins is related to the concentration of Bitcoin. In his view, the inflow of funds is mainly concentrated on Bitcoin, and has not widely flowed into Altcoins, leading to their poor performance. This indicates that the current capital flow is more based on Bitcoin as a hedging tool, rather than the overall positive sentiment in the crypto market.
The Giver expects that in the coming week, the open interest and positions of Bitcoin futures contracts will continue to be crowded, even reaching new highs. He points out that this "right-tail effect" may lead to a short-term surge in Bitcoin prices, but due to the limited market capacity in Q4 2024, it is unlikely to sustain into the next year. This short-term effect increases the possibility of Bitcoin prices reaching a peak before the election, but the speculative liquidity behind it is not sufficient to support a long-term bull market.
Based on this judgment, The Giver proposes a relatively aggressive investment strategy: based on the current market environment, he suggests going long on Bitcoin and short on other major coins and Altcoins. Bitcoin will test $70,000 before the election day, but will experience a mid-term decline regardless of who wins. For more related reading: Analyzing BTC's performance in 2024 from the Trump effect, Microstrategy premium, and liquidity cycle
Markus: Hedging strategy of going long BTC and short SOL
Markus Thielen is a well-known analyst at Matrixport and 10X Research, who gained a lot of attention in the investment community a few months ago for his highly accurate prediction of Bitcoin's $1 trillion market cap.
Markus' latest analysis is based on the latest signal model of 10X Research, which has a hit rate of 73% to 87%, usually realized within 2 weeks to 9 months. He predicts that if Bitcoin's price continues to develop along the historical trend, it may increase by 8% in the next two weeks, 13% within one month, 26% within two months, and 40% within three months. Based on this calculation, Bitcoin's price may break through $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach a target of around $140,000 by April 29, 2025.
Regarding the election results, Markus analyzed the impact of different election outcomes on Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Markus predicts that after Trump's inauguration, Bitcoin may rise by 5%, and Solana and Ethereum may also see similar gains. He believes that Trump's victory will lead to a more crypto-friendly policy environment, which is expected to drive the market upward.
In this scenario, Markus recommends a strategy of "going long on Bitcoin and short on Solana" to hedge the uncertainty brought by the election. However, Markus also pointed out that if the election results are delayed or controversial, this will increase market uncertainty and may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin.
In the case of disputed election results or a Harris victory leading to a short-term decline in Bitcoin, Markus emphasizes that Bitcoin may still show strong resilience, and therefore suggests that investors seize the buying window after Bitcoin's short-term decline.
From the perspective of the derivatives market and on-chain data, the total amount of Bitcoin held by short-term holders has increased in October, while the amount held by long-term holders has decreased. This dynamic usually occurs at important price levels before a breakout. The total open interest in the Bitcoin options market has soared to $22.5 billion within 2024, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market. Bitcoin's 25 Delta skew is at the low end of the annual range (-8% to -10%), indicating a strong bullish sentiment.
Thielen also pays special attention to the impact of MicroStrategy's stock performance on Bitcoin prices. He points out that MicroStrategy's stock price has risen by 33% since October, and the surge in its stock price has had a "coattail effect" on Bitcoin prices. The covering of a large number of short positions has further boosted the market's bullish sentiment on Bitcoin.
Standard Chartered analyst: Trump's victory, BTC to reach $125,000 by year-end
According to an October 25 Cointelegraph report, Standard Chartered bank analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that if Trump wins the November election, Bitcoin's price could climb to $125,000 by the end of the year.
Kendrick's model shows that on Election Day (November 5), Bitcoin could stabilize around $73,000. In the event of a Trump victory, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to immediately rise by about 4%, and then another 10% in the following days, with rising market confidence and a more relaxed regulatory environment being the main driving forces.
Meanwhile, a research report from another broker, Bernstein, points out that if Trump wins the U.S. election in November, Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high later this year, with the price potentially reaching $90,000 in the fourth quarter. In contrast, if Harris wins, the market may expect increased regulation, and BTC prices could fluctuate in the range of $30,000 to $40,000.
What we can currently foresee is that BTC has already broken through the ATH, and its future price uptrend has no so-called "resistance levels" from a technical perspective, and BTC has not disappointed any spot holders.
However, there are still about two months before Trump officially takes office, and during this "narrative gap" period, will there be new narratives leading to continued upward momentum? Will Trump fulfill his previous promises after taking office? Let's wait and see.
