On November 10, Coinmarketcap data showed that the market capitalization of SOL once exceeded $100 billion, surpassing the traditional listed company Pioneering Group and ranking 192nd among the 20,666 assets globally; on November 11, according to data from the 8marketcap website, the market capitalization of SOL fell back to $97.78 billion, with a 7-day increase of as high as 27.83%, ranking 199th among the 20,666 assets globally and the 4th in terms of cryptocurrency market capitalization. At the same time, practitioners from institutions such as Bitwise, Standard Chartered Bank, and Coinbase have expressed high affirmation for the subsequent development of the Solana ecosystem.
Odaily Planet Daily will, together with readers, take a glimpse into the secrets behind the "Solana's market capitalization breaking through $100 billion".
Overview of the Outlook: Solana is the Future
After the FTX blowup incident in 2022, the heat of the Solana ecosystem once plummeted, and the SOL price once fell below $10 (December 30, 2022), but with the continuous construction by the official and the unremitting efforts of the Solana ecosystem developers and project parties, the Solana ecosystem has finally ushered in a revival relying on the development of multiple sectors such as RWA, DePIN, DeFi, and MEME coins.
In addition, considering the "capital bloodline" of Solana in the previous financing stage, countless investment institutions, traditional financial institutions, and even relevant departments of the US political and economic sectors have a positive attitude towards it, and many institutions and individuals have spoken out in support of the Solana ecosystem. The following is an overview of the representative views:
The ETF Store President: Predicts that New Spot Cryptocurrency ETFs Including SOL Will Be Filed This Week
The ETF Store President Nate Geraci wrote: "I predict that issuers will file several new spot cryptocurrency ETF applications this week, including XRP, SOL, and ADA. Assuming multiple issuers are well-prepared for the election results, it's harmless to get a bit more aggressive now."
Arthur Hayes: Solana Will Be the "High Beta Bitcoin" During the US Election
BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes previously stated in early November that he was bullish on Solana before the US election, calling it a "high beta Bitcoin" on the Unchained podcast. He explained that Solana is a good choice because it has strong liquidity, and if Bitcoin performs well, Solana is likely to rise.
Furthermore, Hayes said that in the long run, who wins the US election does not matter, as the primary impact on digital assets will be the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates on November 7.
Hayes also said he is more bullish on SOL than ETH, as he believes Ethereum is currently "too slow" and needs to change the narrative to improve people's perception of its recent poor performance. He pointed out that Solana currently occupies the "mind share", moves quickly, and is likely to outperform Bitcoin when the market is booming, while Ethereum and Bitcoin have "the same beta coefficient", or even slightly lower.
Trump's Victory Beneficial to Solana and Bitcoin
Previously, with the victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election, a large number of tokens and prediction activities related to Trump quickly emerged on the Solana (SOL) blockchain, demonstrating the deep interweaving of blockchain and political events. At the same time, the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, which differs from traditional polls, successfully predicted Trump's victory by focusing on capital flows and changes in market sentiment, becoming an effective reference for analyzing the political situation.
Furthermore, it is believed that Trump's successful election will lead to crypto-friendly policies, directly benefiting Solana and Bitcoin - as an important platform for US-based DeFi and Non-Fungible Token projects, Solana is expected to attract more innovative projects and capital inflows under a relaxed regulatory environment, which may accelerate user growth and capital aggregation. Moreover, as a US-based blockchain platform, Solana is expected to obtain SOL ETF applications with Trump's election, further boosting its influence in the capital market.
Coinbase: Solana's On-Chain Transaction Ecosystem Profitability Second Only to Stablecoins and Layer 1 Network Fees
Coinbase analysts pointed out in a report that MEME tokens have been the core narrative of this bull market and the best-performing cryptocurrency sector (measured by total market capitalization growth). Most MEME coin activities have occurred on Solana, mainly around the increasing popularity of pump.fun as the primary MEME coin launch platform. To date, over 3 million tokens have been issued on pump.fun. The dominance of Solana's on-chain transaction-related activities is reflected in their contribution to the network's transaction fees, accounting for over 82% of all non-voting fees paid on the network.
In addition to pure network fees, Solana's token issuance and trading flows also capture high-value. If the Solana on-chain transaction ecosystem is viewed as an "independent financial category", it is currently ranked third in profitability, second only to stablecoins and Layer 1 network fees. The report states: "Solana's transaction-related activities typically account for 75%-90% of on-chain transaction fees, far exceeding other networks like Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum. While L2 solutions also show growth and innovation, they often face different scalability challenges and user fragmentation issues compared to Solana, whose fee dynamics and user activity patterns remain distinct."
Bitwise CEO: Solana's Market Cap Expected to Exceed $100 Billion
On November 10, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley wrote that Solana's market capitalization is about to exceed $100 billion, and currently, there are only three cryptocurrency assets with a market capitalization reaching this level (note: USDT is not included). On that day, the market capitalization of SOL indeed broke through $100 billion, ranking 4th among cryptocurrency assets.
Standard Chartered Bank Analyst: It Seems "Inevitable" for SOL to Hit a New High by the End of the Year, Potentially Outperforming Bitcoin
Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick predicted that Bitcoin will continue to rise by the end of this year, "easily reaching" $100,000 before some Bitcoin options expire on December 27. Notably, he had previously successfully predicted that Bitcoin would reach $80,000 before the US presidential election.
"I'm forecasting Bitcoin at $125,000 by year-end, that's the next level, although I note that a lot of Trump-related trades peaked around the January 20 inauguration after the 2016 election... so if Bitcoin doesn't make $125,000 by December 31, I think it will by January 20," the bank's head of foreign exchange and digital assets research Kendrick said in an email last weekend.
Kendrick further predicted that given the recent gains in Ethereum and Solana, the Bitcoin price rally may "benefit all investors", and some tokens may outperform Bitcoin. Kendrick wrote: "It seems inevitable that SOL will hit a new all-time high (the previous high was $260 in November 2021) by the end of this year. ETH reaching a new all-time high (the previous high was $4,866 in November 2021) may have to wait until around the inauguration, but overall we think these assets will continue to rise, with SOL potentially performing the best."
SOL/ETH Exchange Rate Hits a New High Recently
Previously, according to OKX market data, the SOL/ETH exchange rate reached 0.0724 on November 6, setting a new historical high.
Considering the above views and data, Solana's future looks bright, which is naturally inseparable from its past performance and ecosystem efforts.
Solana's Past Performance: The "MEME Coin Holy Land" with Diverse Development
Specifically, Solana's excellent past performance is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
Ecosystem Vibrant: Monthly Active Addresses Exceed 123 Million in October, Reaching a New High
Data shows that the monthly active addresses on Solana reached a new high of over 123 million in October. Compared to September, the number of unique addresses that signed transactions on Solana increased by more than 42%. In January this year, the network's active addresses were less than 12.7 million. Analysts say the recent surge in Solana's activity is driven by the Memecoin craze on the network, including the support of platforms like Pump.fun and the decentralized exchange Raydium, both of which have experienced strong growth in recent months.
Additionally, the October "State of Crypto" report released by a16z showed that Solana's monthly active addresses exceeded 100 million, while Ethereum and other EVM chains only had about 57 million, indicating higher user engagement on Solana.
Capital Influx: Over $600 Million in Tokens Bridged to Solana in October, Over 90% from Ethereum
According to SolanaFloor, over $600 million in tokens were bridged to Solana from other chains in October, with more than 90% coming from Ethereum.
Frequent Transactions: Solana's On-Chain DEX Trading Volume Surpassed Ethereum in October
According to defillama data, Solana's on-chain DEX trading volume reached $52.157 billion in October, surpassing Ethereum's DEX trading volume ($41.499 billion) during the same period.
Funding Snapshot: Solana Ecosystem DApps Raised $173 Million in Q3
According to a Messari report, institutional investment in Solana native blockchain applications saw a resurgence in the third quarter of 2024. 29 Solana-based decentralized applications (DApps) collectively raised $173 million in funding, an increase of over 54% from the previous quarter. Although the number of funding rounds decreased by 37%, this represents the largest investment on the Solana chain since the second quarter of 2022. It is reported that asset management giant Franklin Templeton plans to launch a money market fund on Solana.
Offline Expansion: Solana Gift Cards Now Available at Retail Stores Across Switzerland
According to a previous disclosure by SolanaFloor, Solana gift cards are now available at retail stores across Switzerland, and after purchase and activation, the tokens will be stored offline in the Cryptonow wallet. This shows that Solana is also making efforts to expand into the offline market.
Liquidity Influx: cbBTC Launched on Solana
Coinbase previously announced that its cbBTC has been launched on Solana, which is also Coinbase's first token issued on Solana.
Meme Stronghold: Total Market Cap of Meme Coins on Solana Exceeds $15 Billion, Reaching a New High
According to the latest data disclosed by Solana Floor, the total market cap of Meme coins on Solana has exceeded $15 billion, reaching a new high.
Regarding the future development of the Solana ecosystem, its official personnel are also confident, but it still faces considerable challenges.
Solana's Future and Concerns: Large-Scale Synchronous Composability vs. Centralization of Power
Regarding the future development of the Solana ecosystem, Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko previously provided detailed explanations in an interview.
He mentioned the unique position of the Solana ecosystem in the blockchain field and compared its deployment with L2 scaling solutions and other L1 blockchain systems.
Solana's Advantages and Challenges Coexist: The Path to Achieving Large-Scale Synchronous Composability
Previously, Anatoly Yakovenko asked, "How vibrant would the Ethereum ecosystem be without the contribution of the L2 solution Base?"
This question was raised while observing the growth indicators of Base, especially in terms of user activity and transaction volume. He then elaborated, "In my view, scalability, infrastructure focus, and transaction efficiency are Solana's three main advantages," and he also recognized the challenges Solana faces in the context of the evolving blockchain technology and the further development of the platform.
Yakovenko emphasized Solana's unique architecture, with the goal of democratizing access to transaction validation. Unlike traditional finance, Solana allows anyone to set up validators and submit transactions directly, bypassing intermediaries. This level of decentralization is difficult to replicate in traditional finance. Although this functionality exists, he also acknowledged that effectively scaling it remains a challenge.
Yakovenko compared Solana with Ethereum and various L2 solutions, highlighting the trade-offs between L1 and L2. L2 solutions often use centralized sequencers for low-latency transaction ordering. However, these may face similar congestion issues as the L1 chain. While L2 is often seen as a short-term solution to congestion, it may face scaling bottlenecks when multiple applications or markets use them.
He emphasized that Solana's strategic focus is to build a robust L1 chain that can support high throughput without the need for L2 solutions.
Another key factor is synchronous composability, where multiple applications can interact in real-time on a single chain. He believes this is crucial for DeFi, as monolithic chains or application-specific L2s cannot support this level of composability, limiting scalability. Solana's last competitive advantage lies precisely in this: it is fully committed to large-scale synchronous composability, setting it apart from Ethereum and L2 chains.
Furthermore, Solana's advantage lies in its execution. While Ethereum is scaling through L2, Solana's development remains focused on perfecting its L1. He acknowledged that one day, blockchains will provide Solana-like functionality and faster iterations, but for now, Solana's pace of improvement puts it far ahead of the competition. The core of Solana's potential lies in refining its infrastructure to support fairer and more open transaction processing, to realize a truly decentralized future, which will make Solana one of the leading blockchains in the coming years.
Of course, the issue of centralization of power remains one of the market's concerns about the Solana ecosystem. A recent representative view on this is Snowden's related comments.
Snowden: Calls for Decentralization of Solana, Questions VC Influence on Solana
Edward Snowden, the "Prism Gate" whistleblower, discussed the issue of decentralization at the Near Redacted conference in Bangkok. When discussing topics such as cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology, Snowden used Solana as an example, describing it as "born in prison" because it has received a large amount of VC funding, which means that financial support may hinder its blockchain network's ability to operate independently.
While acknowledging Solana's rapid growth, he also expressed concern that too much ownership has been ceded to investors. However, he also pointed out that Solana may "achieve something" in the future.
Summary: Solana's Ecosystem Endpoint Is Far From Reached
As of the time of writing, Solana's price has returned to around $210, and its market capitalization has once again approached $100 billion. According to information from the 8marketcap website, Solana's market capitalization is currently about 6.18% of Bitcoin's, and about 26.17% of Ethereum's.
And after the potential of ETH, DeFi, and even more areas is further explored, the Solana ecosystem may have the opportunity to truly rival Ethereum and become a genuine "Ethereum killer".
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