Odaily星球日报讯 德国中央合作银行分析师 Birgit Henseler 表示，预计 10 年期美国国债收益率近期将横盘震荡，到明年年底将升至 5%。这位分析师在一份报告中表示，固定收益市场已经消化了特朗普新政府的很大一部分政策，这些政策可能会导致通胀。她说，这也意味着美联储可能会提前结束降息，预计未来几个月美联储将降息 100 个基点。据 Tradeweb 的数据，10 年期美国国债收益率日内升 3 个基点，报 4.371%。（金十）

德国中央合作银行：美联储可能会提前结束降息

Odaily Odaily News: Birgit Henseler, an analyst at the German Central Cooperation Bank, said that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate sideways in the near term and rise to 5% by the end of next year. The analyst said in a report that the fixed income market has digested a large part of the policies of the new Trump administration, which may lead to inflation. She said that this also means that the Federal Reserve may end its interest rate cuts ahead of schedule, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points in the coming months. According to Tradeweb data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.371% during the day. (Jinshi)

DZ Bank: Fed may end rate cuts early

Odaily Planet Daily Report: IG market strategist said that Trump's election as US president has directly led to a reduction in expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates before 2025, the potential "red wave" means there is little resistance to his tax cuts and spending plans, plus his stance on raising tariffs. The strategist said, "Overall, this may complicate the Fed's efforts to fight inflation, and we may expect the Fed to be more cautious in the future easing process, indicating upward pressure on yields and the US dollar." Traders now believe the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is 68%, compared to about 83% before Trump's victory. (Gold Ten)

Analyst: Trump's victory directly led to a reduction in the Fed's expectations of rate cuts before 2025

Odaily Planet Daily Report shows that data indicates the UK unemployment rate has risen more than expected, with wage growth slowing, but slightly lower than expected. After the data was released, the GBP/USD fell from 1.2825 to a three-month low of 1.2800, and the EUR/GBP rose from 0.8294 to 0.8303. In the three months to September, the unemployment rate rose from 4% in the previous quarter to 4.3%. Average earnings excluding bonuses grew 4.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected 4.7%. Kathleen Brooks, head of research at XTB, said in a report that "the rise in the unemployment rate may lead the market to price in a greater chance of a rate cut by the Bank of England next month."

Institution: Market expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England are rising

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Charudatta Shende, a fixed income strategist at the US investment management firm Candriam, said in a webinar that Candriam has taken a cautious stance on the US interest rate market. He said: "We believe that interest rates may rise, which will be accompanied by considerable volatility." He stated that the policies of US President-elect Trump will put upward pressure on inflation and support economic growth, although tariffs will mitigate this pressure to some extent. However, he added that the outlook for US fiscal policy remains uncertain. (Jinshi)