Trump elected as the US president in 2024, winning not only the electoral college vote but also the popular vote, leading to a bullish trend in the cryptocurrency market. Due to his pro-cryptocurrency stance, he has continuously driven Bitcoin to new all-time highs, with the total cryptocurrency market capitalization surging by over $200 billion in a single day. All Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a trading volume of $6 billion on Wednesday, a new high since March. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 1 basis point again in the early hours of this morning, with the accommodative policy further incentivizing Bitcoin to reach new highs today.
In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $76,422 yesterday, before experiencing a brief downward correction, until a new round of rally was initiated in the evening, reaching $76,849 in the early hours of this morning, setting a new record high. As of the time of writing, it has slightly retreated to the $76,108 level, with a 24-hour increase of 1.08%.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
First, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator on the Bitcoin 4-hour chart, the price is approaching the upper band and is significantly deviating from the middle band, indicating that it is currently in an overbought region after a strong uptrend, and may face some correction pressure. If the price breaks below the middle band, it may further test the support of the lower band.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator on the Bitcoin 4-hour chart, the K-line and D-line values are both running at high levels, indicating that the Bitcoin price is in an overbought state and may experience a pullback at any time. If the three KDJ lines form a death cross, the likelihood of a correction will increase.
Finally, based on the MACD indicator on the Bitcoin 4-hour chart, the DIF line and DEA line are showing signs of convergence at high levels, and the red MACD histogram is gradually shortening, indicating that the current upward momentum is weakening. If the DIF line and DEA line form a death cross at high levels, the price may experience a downward trend in the short term.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart
First, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator on the Bitcoin 1-hour chart, the price is between the middle band and the upper band, and is close to the middle band. The upper and lower bands are gradually converging, indicating a decrease in volatility, and the price may consolidate in this area for a period of time. If the price effectively breaks below the middle band, it may further approach the lower band.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator on the Bitcoin 1-hour chart, the K-line and D-line values are both at high levels, indicating an overbought signal in the current market, and a correction may occur at any time. If the K-line and D-line values form a death cross, the risk of a correction will further increase.
Finally, based on the MACD indicator on the Bitcoin 1-hour chart, the DIF line and DEA line are currently at relatively high levels, but the distance between them is small, and the MACD histogram has turned from red to green, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening. If the DIF line crosses below the DEA line to form a death cross, a further downward signal can be confirmed.
In summary, based on the Bitcoin 4-hour chart, Bitcoin's trend shows strong upward momentum, but due to the overbought signals in multiple indicators, a short-term correction may occur. Based on the Bitcoin 1-hour chart, Bitcoin's upward momentum has weakened, and there is a possibility of a correction or consolidation. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to whether MACD forms a death cross, whether the overbought signal of KDJ continues to retreat, and the support effect of the Bollinger Bands middle band.
In conclusion, the wizard provides the following suggestions for reference:
Short Bitcoin at around $76,600, with a target of $75,600-$75,100, and defend $77,000.
Writing time: (2024-11-08, 19:15)
(Article by Wizard of Coins)
