PANews, November 16 - The Republican Party in the United States completed a three-game winning streak at the White House and both houses of Congress this week, adding fuel to the "Trump deal", but at the same time, strong US economic and inflation data continued to reshape market expectations for the pace and extent of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. This week, due to economic data such as US retail sales exceeding expectations, traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts in December, and the market generally showed a hawkish reaction. US stocks collectively plummeted, with the S&P 500 index falling 2.08% for the week, the Nasdaq Composite index falling 3.15%, marking the largest weekly decline in more than two months, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.24%. As the list of members of the Trump cabinet is gradually released, Wall Street has experienced varying degrees of earthquake.
Benefiting from the prospect of the Federal Reserve under Trump being more cautious in cutting interest rates, the US dollar index has risen for seven consecutive weeks, briefly standing above the 107 mark. Next week's market focus includes speeches by central bank officials and important data such as the number of initial jobless claims in the US, with key points including:
Monday 12:45, speech by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda;
Tuesday 18:00, final October CPI year-on-year and preliminary October CPI month-on-month in the Eurozone;
Thursday 21:00, US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 16, and the November Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;
Friday 1:25, FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans participating in a Q&A session;
Friday 7:30, Japan's October core CPI year-on-year;
Friday 16:30, ECB President Christine Lagarde speaking at the European Banking Congress;
Friday 22:45, US November final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and US November final S&P Global Services PMI;
Friday 23:00, US November preliminary 1-year inflation rate expectation and US November preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Next week's economic calendar is once again relatively light, and if the data continues to confirm the resilience of the US economy, gold prices may become more depressed against the backdrop of further dampening of expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. In addition, after the stagnation of the rally driven by the US election, US stock investors will turn their attention to technology stocks and artificial intelligence trading. Nvidia will report earnings next Wednesday, which will also be its first earnings report since being included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Investors will continue to watch Trump's transition plan, including his choices for key cabinet positions, some of which have already led to weakness in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and defense. On Thursday, the market fell after Powell said the Federal Reserve was in no hurry to cut rates, so the direction of monetary policy may once again become the dominant factor for the market. The gains in US stocks since the election have already been erased by half.
