Driven by the launch of spot ETFs in the US in January and the start of options trading on these products this week, volatility has risen sharply this year.
This year, as traders begin to focus on the six-figure price of the world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin continues to hit new highs - according to analysis of the derivatives market for this asset, Bitcoin has not yet overheated.
CoinGecko data shows that on Wednesday evening, the price of Bitcoin rose above $97,000, breaking through the previous high of $95,000 in less than an hour.
CoinGlass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the volatility in the price of Bitcoin has led to $100 million in liquidations, with 80% coming from short sellers or those betting on a price decline.
Volatility has risen sharply this year, partly due to the launch of multiple spot exchange-traded funds in the US in January and the start of options trading on these products this week.
The victory of the Republican party during the US presidential election this year has also sparked hopes for favorable industry regulation and a relaxation of oversight by the highest regulatory body on Wall Street - the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which is expected to undergo a change of leadership.
Cryptocurrency and stock traders, dubbed the "Trump trade", are rushing to snap up assets in anticipation of the inauguration of the president-elect on January 20, helping to boost sentiment in the major markets.
Earlier this month, the Nasdaq index rose to a new high of over 21,182 points, while the S&P 500 index broke through 6,000 points for the first time.
This is driven by post-election optimism, the Fed's rate cuts, and strong corporate earnings (especially in the tech sector). Advances in artificial intelligence and favorable economic conditions have further boosted investor sentiment, driving the indices to new highs.
Bitcoin is expected to exceed the analyst-predicted price breakthrough of $100,000 in December, and Bernstein Research forecasts that the asset's price could double by the end of 2025 to reach $200,000.
"If you just look at the scale and speed of the market, you would instinctively think that investors are in a state of excitement," Pav Hundal, chief analyst at Australian cryptocurrency exchange Swyftx, told Decrypt.
"There are no signs of overheating in the futures market," he added, "It all looks very rational, very well thought out."
The analyst pointed out that the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts is "currently around 10%".
"That's not overheated, and certainly not like the 107% annualized rate we saw on Bitcoin longs in March," he said. "In the next few hours, we should get a good sense of whether this is the final push for Bitcoin to $100,000."
