Will the Altcoin season come again?
The answer may surprise you: it will come, but it won't.
Why say "it will come"? Because in the market, sector rotation and small-scale capital concentration always exist, just like the performance of this round of meme sectors.
The reason for "it won't come" is also valid, because the "full-scale Altcoin season" when all coins generally rise is almost impossible to reappear, especially for those old Altcoins you hold.
To give a vivid analogy, the current Altcoin market is like the real estate market a few years ago - the core sectors in the core cities still have value, while the liquidity in other places is close to exhaustion. Some coins can even be compared to core assets in the real estate market, such as Solana can be seen as the "core business district", meme coins correspond to "school district housing", and Doge is more like "metro housing". However, most of the old Altcoins are more like vacant real estate projects in third- and fourth-tier cities - lacking buyer attention and no new capital inflow.
As Bitcoin hits $100,000, does the Altcoin season still exist?
In discussing the Altcoin season, we cannot avoid the performance of Ethereum.
Ethereum was the protagonist in the last bull market due to the explosion of its ecosystem, but the current situation is completely different. Bitcoin, whether in ETFs, options products or market attention, is clearly in a dominant position. Currently, market funds are clearly concentrated on Bitcoin, and only a small number of targets may explode, while the full-scale Altcoin season has become increasingly remote.
Why is this? Fundamentally, it is because the "differentiation" trend of the market is becoming more and more obvious. Similar to the "regional differentiation" in the domestic real estate market, the crypto market is now in a state where some coins are performing outstandingly, and the phenomenon of across-the-board rise has long since disappeared.
The core reason why the Altcoin season is difficult to fully return:
New players don't play old coins
Each generation of investors has their own culture and preferences, and new players are unlikely to get involved with old Altcoins. This is actually a logic of social networks - most people enter the crypto world through the recommendation of acquaintances, and their investment direction is often influenced by acquaintances. These new players are more focused on meme coins, rather than old projects like EOS, LTC, and BCH. Moreover, the marketing investment of the old project teams has been greatly reduced, and it is already difficult to stabilize the market value, let alone actively attract new investors.
In simple terms, the money doesn't come in, and people don't hear about it. Without celebrity endorsements, media publicity, and the community left with holders who just want to break even, the lack of capital naturally makes it difficult for the price to take off.
The "Dark Forest Law" of the project parties
If you are a project party, facing the current low liquidity in the market, what strategy will you take? The answer is obvious: you are unlikely to actively let old investors break even, because this means you have to dig into your own money to fill the liquidity gap in the market. If there is a general rise, you are also more likely to take the opportunity to pull and sell, and then catch another wave of new investors, rather than share the new liquidity with retail investors.
In addition, there is one more important point: if the old investors break even, they may completely leave the project. For the project parties, this actually reduces the future attention. Therefore, rather than letting the retail investors break even, it is better to maintain the status quo and hold the situation.
Lack of promotion and consensus
The reason why the Altcoin season was able to form in the last bull market was that there was a strong community consensus, capital support, and celebrity effect. But now, most Altcoins have lost these qualities: celebrities have no interest, capital is unwilling to enter, and the project parties are no longer driving, with an overall cold atmosphere. Without new blood entering, it is almost impossible to reproduce the past prosperity.
Where is Ethereum's future?
Ethereum still has hope. As the second-ranked asset in the market, its natural position determines that it can get some of the overflow funds from Bitcoin. Even though Bitcoin's appeal is currently stronger, in the long run, Ethereum's ecosystem and smart contract advantages cannot be ignored.
However, Ethereum's current performance is indeed being suppressed. Compared to Bitcoin's continuous new highs, and even Solana gradually approaching its previous highs, Ethereum is still stagnant. This phenomenon is not normal, and it may be that large funds are deliberately suppressing the price to complete their positions at low levels. Reviewing Bitcoin's repeated fluctuations around $40,000 in the last round, Ethereum's big players may be conducting similar operations - reducing their holding costs by absorbing the selling pressure.
For investors, the most important thing is to maintain rationality, not to blindly chase the hot spots or "minority strategies". Risks and returns coexist, the real question is: can you bear these risks.
Epilogue
Will the Altcoin season come? The answer depends on your definition.
If you expect a general rise, it is highly unlikely to happen. But for some sectors and coins, the opportunities for capital concentration and outstanding performance still exist. The key is to grasp the core assets, manage positions rationally, and avoid being swept away by market emotions.
Investing is like a battlefield, and the winners are often those who are calm and strategic.
Finally, there is actually a lot that hasn't been written, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions, which are often not something a single article can summarize.
If you want to know more about the wealth code, or if you have any doubts, follow the public account: Caijing Dongchen
