Key market focus this week:
1. Continuous inflow of ETFs: If the inflow trend continues from last week, BTC is expected to break through the 100,000 mark!
2. Blood-sucking effect of funds: If BTC breaks through 100,000, it is necessary to observe whether it sucks blood from other currencies. If a blood-sucking effect occurs, the subsequent BTC adjustment may drive the sucked currencies to rebound, forming a sector rotation.
3. Layout of anti-decline currencies: If BTC corrects, pay attention to the currencies with smaller declines, as they may have capital support, and potential targets can be considered.
4. Restart of on-chain rhythm: The on-chain performance was sluggish in the second half of last week. This week, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there are strong projects (such as large MC memecoin) driving a new round of on-chain market.
Recent BTC price analysis
Recently, the BTC market has been turbulent. BTC price once reached $99,660 per coin, refreshing a new historical high, approaching the 100,000 USD mark. In a short period of time, BTC has broken through the barriers of $95,000, $96,000, $97,000 and $98,000 in succession, marching towards the 100,000 USD mark. As of now, the BTC price has maintained above $98,000, trading at $98,416.6 per coin.
Factors for breaking through $100,000
In the short term, the Trump trade and loose monetary policy are the two "catalysts".
CoinShares research head James Butterfill said in a report that the current BTC price and flow are greatly influenced by US politics, and the recent surge in capital inflows may be related to changes in the Republican election situation.
The shift in policy of major central banks around the world (multiple central banks are expected to cut interest rates intensively in 2024), the loosening of liquidity has boosted risk sentiment, which has also become a tailwind for cryptocurrencies. Moreover, the market generally expects the risk of inflation to rise in the US after the election, which has objectively helped to boost this round of the BTC market.
From a long-term perspective, the fundamentals of BTC also have strong demand support.
First, the application prospects of BTC in the financial industry have been clear, and its application in financial models such as financing and lending has become the most active field of financial innovation, and the financial models around BTC have become the core content of digital finance, which is the fundamental reason for the continuous rise in BTC prices.
Secondly, with the clear actual use of BTC, and the launch of BTC futures and spot ETFs, BTC has become a mainstream asset allocation for asset management institutions, and the allocation and holding of BTC by financial institutions has increased the demand for BTC.
Recent ETH price analysis
The price of Ethereum has already broken through $3,300 and the 100-hour simple moving average, showing a bullish momentum. The ETH/USD hourly chart shows that although a short-term bearish trend line has formed, and the resistance is around $3,350, if the $3,420 resistance area is broken, the price may accelerate upwards and further push towards $3,500.
In the next few months, with the continued development of the market, the goal of ETH hitting $4,000 will be driven by multiple factors:
1. Inflow of institutional capital, especially the continued growth of spot ETFs;
2. The expansion of decentralized finance and the support of the Ethereum network for DApps;
3. Technical improvements and the deflationary effect of EIP-1559, helping Ethereum consolidate its position.
In the fierce competition of the crypto market, Ethereum is not only an important participant, but also a long-term value target with great potential. Whether it's the short-term target of $4,000 or the long-term forecast of $6,000, the future of Ethereum is still worth looking forward to.
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