Author:jessewldn
Compiled by: Bai Hua Blockchain
Over the past two years, the crypto industry has entered a period that can be called the "integration phase". During this time, the industry has focused more on optimization rather than "creating something from nothing" in terms of new innovations. This integration and optimization is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:
1) Infrastructure
2) Application scenarios
3) Leading winners
Optimization and integration trends in the crypto industry in 2024
1) Optimization: Infrastructure in 2024
The maturity of the infrastructure has made crypto technology no longer a bottleneck for the industry's development. This achievement comes from the optimization of a large number of technologies, rather than disruptive new architectures. These optimizations have perhaps for the first time given the crypto industry the conditions to welcome a "bull market", specifically including:
More abundant block space;
Increasingly mature development toolchain;
User transaction fees are almost zero or completely waived;
The complexity of wallet usage has been significantly reduced;
The user experience of on-chain applications is gradually on par with Web2 consumer-grade products.
Currently, this abstraction, performance improvement and reliability enhancement of the infrastructure have just entered the 12th to 18th month. For example, the development of Ethereum L2, the improvement of Solana's stability, and the application of wallet abstraction technology in actual production environments have not yet reached the optimal level.
2) Integration: Application scenarios and leading winners in 2024
Two key application scenarios have gradually matured: speculation and stablecoins. These two scenarios have run through the entire development history of the crypto industry:
Bitcoin (2009) is the earliest speculative asset in the crypto industry;
Stablecoins are one of the earliest Token applications (USDT started in 2014).
Now, these two major scenarios are ushering in new peaks due to the optimization of the infrastructure.
The peak of speculation: Memecoins
Memecoins are the ultimate manifestation of speculative behavior, and now their creation and trading have become extremely convenient and low-cost.
Seamless integration of stablecoins
Tools like Bridge have made the issuance and trading of stablecoins more efficient than ever before.
3) The strong-get-stronger effect of leading winners
With the development of the industry, the past leading winners are further consolidating their positions, and their advantages continue to expand. These winners include:
Public chains: Solana and Ethereum;
Wallets: Phantom;
Exchanges: Uniswap and Raydium.
These platforms have benefited greatly from the growth of stablecoins and speculative activities, and can quickly adapt to market hotspots such as Memecoins or Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs).
The next stage of the crypto industry
As the infrastructure bottleneck gradually subsides, the other two major bottlenecks facing the industry are also gradually emerging, and these two bottlenecks have largely driven the current integration and optimization phase, and hindered further innovative breakthroughs in the industry from "zero to one".
1) Bottleneck one: Infrastructure issues
The infrastructure bottleneck is gradually being resolved. Technological optimization rather than breakthrough architectural innovation has brought significant progress to the industry. Now, the available block space of blockchains is abundant, the tools are gradually maturing, transaction fees are close to zero, wallet usage has become more convenient, and some on-chain applications can match the consumer experience of Web2.
2) Bottleneck two: Hostile and uncertain regulatory environment
The second bottleneck to be solved is the unfriendly and uncertain regulatory environment. However, this problem seems to be gradually easing. The election of Trump has the potential to bring clearer regulatory rules in the US, eliminate bad projects, and help the positive participants in the industry grow stronger.
With the improvement of infrastructure performance and the clarification of the regulatory environment, the industry is about to break through the third bottleneck - the talent shortage.
3) Bottleneck three: Talent shortage
Since 2022, the number of new talents entering the crypto industry has been in a bottleneck state. This is understandable, as negative news and uncertain regulatory environments have posed huge personal risks to founders. However, the lack of new talents has directly led to the stagnation of "zero to one" innovation in the industry.
I believe this trend will begin to reverse next year through the following two steps:
A. The leaders in the integration phase will continue to expand their advantages The success of these leading projects may exceed everyone's expectations. For example, Polymarket has proven this point during the recent election cycle, and there will be more similar cases in the future. As on-chain applications are gradually accepted by the mainstream (whether consumers or institutions), we will see:
Startups will go public one after another;
More projects will issue Tokens;
Social expectations for the influence of the crypto industry will be readjusted.
This is the first step to motivate a new generation of developers to delve into the crypto industry. Only by attracting more new blood can the industry usher in a real next round of breakthroughs.
B. A new generation of entrepreneurs will redefine the industry based on first principles These new entrepreneurs will no longer be limited by traditional infrastructure and outdated ideas. They will innovate based on clear rules, focusing on "ownership" as the core, and bring users completely new products and experiences.
Future outlook: Finding stability through validation
Although the crypto industry is still full of volatility, with the arrival of new rules, new talents and new ideas, we hope that in the next five years, we can clearly know: Can the crypto industry move beyond speculation and stablecoins to bring more real value?
"Ownership" may become a core element of new products and networks, using economic incentives to establish deep connections with users, and these networks will achieve faster growth. Breakthrough applications will become an important way to reduce long-term volatility.
