Bitcoin has regained the $95,500 level after falling below $90,000 on November 26. The 5% increase over these two days marks a divergence from traditional markets, particularly US government bonds. This contrasts with last week when the price of Bitcoin closely followed the yield on the US government 2-year bond.
If investors start to view Bitcoin as less risky due to its hawkish monetary policy and censorship resistance, the likelihood of reaching $100,000 before the end of the year will increase. As some major economies around the world face growth challenges, investors may turn to scarce assets like Bitcoin to preserve value.
On November 28, the yield on 10-year French government bonds, the second-largest economy in the eurozone, rose to 3%, on par with Greek bond yields. According to CNBC, this "reflects concerns about the political situation in France as the government struggles to get support for its 2025 budget to cut spending."
France's budget deficit is expected to reach 6.1% in 2024, more than double the eurozone's proposed 3% limit.
Russia, another global economic powerhouse, has seen the ruble fall to its lowest level since March 2022, prompting central bank intervention. President Vladimir Putin quickly dismissed concerns despite inflation reaching 8.5% in October, according to CNBC. The central bank has raised rates to 21% but has yet to control the price surge.
Inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs have also helped improve investor sentiment, reversing a two-day negative trend on November 27.
Net inflows of $103 million mainly went into Fidelity's FBTC and Bitwise's BITB funds, while BlackRock's leading IBIT fund remained stable. This marks a significant change from the $548 million outflows on November 25 and 26.
According to data from glassnode, the Bitcoin miners' flow has ended a ten-day consecutive average withdrawal, with an increase in deposits to addresses controlled by miners. While this is just an estimate and not an official confirmation, it contributes to a more optimistic market sentiment.
Typically, miners' accumulation indicates increased confidence in the current bull market, while profit-taking often creates unnecessary fear, known as FUD. For context, miners' 30-day average revenue is 476 BTC, suggesting at least 30% of the outflow should be expected to cover costs.
A report from Bernstein Research estimates that MicroStrategy will control 4% of the total Bitcoin supply by the end of 2033, addressing concerns about the company's high price compared to the amount of BTC it holds. Currently, the company holds a record 331,200 BTC in its treasury and plans to continue its strategy, including debt and equity issuance.
Bitcoin's path to $100,000 also depends on how the US economy and the dollar respond to current macroeconomic conditions. However, on-chain data and institutional interest remain strong, suggesting a strong price rally could push BTC to new highs.
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According to Cointelegraph
