Odaily星球日报讯 法兴银行预测，到 2025 年底，10 年期美债收益率将升至 4.5%，而 2 年期美债收益率将降至 3.5%。原因是美联储将继续降息会降低短期利率，但也会通过刺激经济和增加财政赤字，促使长期国债的需求增加，导致长期收益率上升。另外，特朗普关税计划可能推高通胀预期，加之美国政府为了应对财政赤字，预计将增加国债的发行量，均会推高收益率。（金十）

法兴银行：美联储将继续降息导致短期利率下降，关税和财政赤字推高长期利率

Odaily Odaily: Societe Generale predicts that by the end of 2025, the 10-year US Treasury yield will rise to 4.5%, while the 2-year US Treasury yield will fall to 3.5%. The reason is that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, which will lower short-term interest rates, but will also stimulate the economy and increase fiscal deficits, which will increase demand for long-term Treasury bonds and lead to higher long-term yields. In addition, Trump&#39;s tariff plan may push up inflation expectations, and the US government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bonds in order to cope with the fiscal deficit, which will push up yields. (Jinshi)

Societe Generale: The Fed will continue to cut interest rates, leading to lower short-term interest rates, while tariffs and fiscal deficits will push up long-term interest rates

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Minsheng Securities said that the probability of the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts in the middle of next year has increased. With the unemployment rate remaining low and inflation being hindered from declining, the Federal Reserve may still have 2 to 3 rate cuts next year, and may pause rate cuts in the second half of the year. In a low-probability scenario, if the intensity of tariffs and immigration policies is too strong, it may lead to a decline in the US stock market and a significant slowdown in the US economy, in which case there may be more rate cuts next year. (Gold Ten)

Institution: The probability of the Fed suspending interest rate cuts in the middle of next year increases

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Foreword
In the ever-changing global economic landscape, the monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve is closely watched by the global financial markets. In September 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since 2020, ushering in a new cycle of rate cuts.

Binance Research recently released a report that delves into the ins and outs of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and its impact on the economy and various asset classes.

The report, starting from the basic economic theory, analyzes the relationship between core economic indicators such as interest rates, inflation, and employment, using the latest data and historical experience. It also examines the impact on stocks, bonds, <AR>, and other asset classes.

Binance's latest report: The 2024 interest rate cut cycle is coming, a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the Fed's policy

According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged by December is 32.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 67.1%.