Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME “美联储观察”，美联储到 12 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 25.5%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 74.5%。到明年 1 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 20.6%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 65.1%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 14.3%。

美联储12月降息25个基点的概率升至74.5%

According to CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Odaily&quot;, the probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by December is 25.5%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 74.5%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 20.6%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 65.1%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 14.3%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 74.5%.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Minsheng Securities said that the probability of the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts in the middle of next year has increased. With the unemployment rate remaining low and inflation being hindered from declining, the Federal Reserve may still have 2 to 3 rate cuts next year, and may pause rate cuts in the second half of the year. In a low-probability scenario, if the intensity of tariffs and immigration policies is too strong, it may lead to a decline in the US stock market and a significant slowdown in the US economy, in which case there may be more rate cuts next year. (Gold Ten)

Institution: The probability of the Fed suspending interest rate cuts in the middle of next year increases

Here is the English translation, with the content within <> tags left untranslated:

Foreword
In the ever-changing global economic landscape, the monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve is closely watched by the global financial markets. In September 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since 2020, ushering in a new cycle of rate cuts.

Binance Research recently released a report that delves into the ins and outs of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and its impact on the economy and various asset classes.

The report, starting from the basic economic theory, analyzes the relationship between core economic indicators such as interest rates, inflation, and employment, using the latest data and historical experience. It also examines the impact on stocks, bonds, <AR>, and other asset classes.

Binance's latest report: The 2024 interest rate cut cycle is coming, a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the Fed's policy

Odaily Planet Daily reported that Societe Generale forecasts that by the end of 2025, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries will rise to 4.5%, while the yield on 2-year US Treasuries will fall to 3.5%. The reason is that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, which will lower short-term interest rates, but also stimulate the economy and increase the fiscal deficit, leading to increased demand for long-term government bonds and a rise in long-term yields. In addition, Trump's tariff plan may push up inflation expectations, and the US government is expected to increase the issuance of government bonds to address the fiscal deficit, both of which will push up yields. (Gold Ten)

Societe Generale: The Fed will continue to cut interest rates, leading to lower short-term interest rates, while tariffs and fiscal deficits will push up long-term interest rates