Bitwise: 2024 Crypto Market Predictions Review

Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise; Compiled by 0xjs@Jinse Finance

Every year, the Bitwise team comes together to make annual predictions about the future of cryptocurrencies. This process involves hours of discussion, debate, and reflection among over a dozen team members. This is one of the most exciting things we do all year.

We will release our 2025 predictions on December 10th. Spoiler alert: we think 2025 is going to be crazy. But before we make next year's predictions, it's worth looking back at how we did in 2024.

Setting the Scene: Reviewing December 2023

First, let's set the scene.

We released our 2024 predictions on December 12, 2023. At that time, cryptocurrencies were in a very different place. Bitcoin was trading at $43,750, and anti-crypto rhetoric in Washington, D.C. was at a fever pitch. Just days before we released our 2024 predictions, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon testified before Congress, saying he has been "a major skeptic on crypto, Bitcoin, and so forth." He then said, "If I were a regulator, I'd be banning it."

The progress made in 2024 has been astounding. Bitcoin is now trading close to $100,000, pro-crypto politicians dominate in Washington, and Wall Street firms are eagerly building in the space. But none of that was obvious when we were setting our annual predictions in December 2023.

Let's see how we did.

2024 Prediction 1: Bitcoin's trading price will exceed $80,000, setting a new all-time high.

Result: Correct

We nailed this one. Bitcoin broke through $80,000 in November and has continued to climb, currently trading close to $100,000. Our rationale at the time - that a spot Bitcoin ETF approval and the Bitcoin halving would combine to drive prices higher - was completely on point.

We'll be releasing our 2025 price targets next week, and adding price targets for Ethereum and Solana. Stay tuned.

Prediction 2: A spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved and will become the most successful ETF launch ever.

Result: Correct

Another win. The spot Bitcoin ETF approved in January 2024 has become the most successful ETF launch to date. As of December 1, 2024, the Bitcoin ETF has attracted over $31 billion in inflows. The previous "most successful ETF launch" record was held by the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which attracted $5 billion in its first year after launching in 1999. Gold ETFs attracted less than $2 billion in their first year. The Bitcoin ETF's inflows are multiples of that, and still growing.

Prediction 3: Coinbase's revenue will double, exceeding Wall Street expectations by at least 10x (profitability).

Result: Correct

This was a close one. Coinbase had $3.1 billion in revenue in 2023, and $4.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2024. Can they hit $6.2 billion by year-end? I think so. The fourth quarter is a phenomenal one for crypto.

Coinbase remains one of the most fascinating companies in the world, and in our view, it is undervalued. We'll also be releasing a series of Coinbase-related predictions next week.

Prediction 4: The value of transactions settled in stablecoins will exceed the value of transactions settled on Visa.

Result: Incorrect

In the first six months of 2024, global stablecoin settlement volumes reached $5.1 trillion, a massive increase from the prior year. But they have not yet caught up to Visa, which settled $6.5 trillion in the same period. Close, but no cigar.

Prediction 5: As Wall Street prepares to tokenize real-world assets, JPMorgan Chase will tokenize a fund and launch it on-chain.

Result: Incorrect

I really hoped this one would come true. To see JPMorgan Chase (whose CEO once angrily called for Washington to "shut down" crypto) tokenize one of its own funds would have been a delicious irony.

We were so close! The tokenization of Wall Street funds was a major theme in 2024. BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, Guggenheim, UBS, and Societe Generale all took steps in this direction. JPMorgan Chase invested heavily in tokenization, revamping its tokenization platform and calling it "the next-generation financial infrastructure." But the firm didn't actually launch a fund, so we can't claim victory.

Prediction 6: Ethereum's revenue will more than double, reaching $5 billion, as users flock to crypto applications.

Result: Incorrect

We were way off on this one. In 2024, activity on Ethereum-based applications surged, but year-end revenue may come in slightly below the $2 billion of the prior year. Why? The "Dencun" upgrade on Ethereum in March reduced network fees by 99%. We ultimately think this is good for the network, but the short-term hit to revenue has been challenging.

Prediction 7: Taylor Swift will launch NFTs to connect with fans in new ways.

Result: Incorrect

This didn't happen, but it remains an area to watch in 2025. Reports suggest Taylor has been concerned about whether NFTs constitute securities. If we get more clarity on NFT regulation in the coming year, this could resurface.

Prediction 8: AI assistants will use crypto to make online payments, confirming crypto as the "native currency of the internet."

Result: Correct

In July, legendary venture capitalist Marc Andreessen donated $50,000 worth of Bitcoin to an AI chatbot called Truth Terminal. The chatbot then helped promote a meme coin called Goatseus Maximus (GOAT), which is now worth $674 million. We suspect AI bots will widely use crypto and stablecoins in the coming years. While the GOAT experiment was crazy, it provided an amazing proof of concept.

Prediction 9: Prediction markets will become crypto's new "killer app," with over $100 million in capital deployed.

Result: Correct

Of all our predictions, this is the one I'm most proud of.

In December 2023, hardly anyone had heard of Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market where users can bet on global events. But we were fans of the platform, and believed it would take off as the U.S. elections approached. Boy, were we right: the total amount staked on the platform rocketed from the $8 million we predicted to over $500 million at its peak. Polymarket became a household name in the process. It also demonstrated remarkable prescience in the 2024 elections.

In our 2025 predictions article, we'll be forecasting the next breakthrough crypto application.

Prediction 10: A major Ethereum blockchain upgrade will drive average transaction costs below $0.01, paving the way for more mainstream use cases.

Result: Correct

Let me do the math on this one. Many Ethereum Layer 2 networks have seen average transaction costs fall by over 90% year-over-year, now hovering between $0.01 and $0.02. But they did dip below $0.01 this summer, and I believe we'll be back there soon as the underlying technology continues to improve. Sub-penny transactions on the main blockchains will change the world.

Bonus Prediction: By the end of 2024, a quarter of financial advisors will have crypto allocations in client accounts.

Result: Pending

Each year, we survey financial advisors to understand how many are holding crypto in client accounts. In 2023, only 11% said "yes." The 2024 year-end survey is still underway, so we don't know yet if the 25% level has been reached. A potential headwind is that major banks like Wells Fargo, UBS, and Merrill Lynch have not yet approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. But we think that's a matter of when, not if.