Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)
Around 10:30 am on December 5th, according to OKX market data, the BTC price once surged above $100,000, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 5%, which also means that Bitcoin has finally broken through the $100,000 mark as expected.
At the same time, Ethereum broke through 3800 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 5.35%; SOL broke through 230 USDT, with the 24-hour decline narrowing to 2%.
The total cryptocurrency market cap has risen sharply as a result. CoinGecko data shows that the current total cryptocurrency market cap has risen to $3.778 trillion.
In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that $545 million was liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for the majority, but the scale of short positions liquidated also reached $222 million. In terms of cryptocurrencies, BTC had $111 million in liquidations, and ETH had $74.2 million in liquidations.
Long-term Narrative: Institutions Continuously Purchasing BTC, $100,000 is Just the Beginning
Currently, the demand for BTC from traditional institutions is extremely strong. Lin Chen, Asia-Pacific Business Manager of Deribit, posted on X that the trading volume of BTC ecosystem stocks reached $50 billion on November 21, already exceeding the entire UK stock market. The trading volume of MSTR alone has reached $32 billion, and the trading volume of the other two leveraged MSTR ETFs has reached $6 billion.
In just the third week of November, four listed companies added tens of billions of dollars in collective debt to their balance sheets to purchase Bitcoin, including MicroStrategy, MARA Holdings, Semler Scientific, and MetaPlanet. In addition, MicroStrategy has sold over $6 billion in convertible bonds this year to purchase Bitcoin, with hedge funds buying in for arbitrage bets. Since October 31 alone, MicroStrategy has purchased approximately $13.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and issued $3 billion in zero-interest convertible bonds, the company's fifth bond issuance this year.
Previously, US-listed company Hoth Therapeutics announced that its board of directors had approved the purchase of up to $1 million worth of Bitcoin. Hoth CEO Robb Knie stated: "As Bitcoin continues to grow and become a mainstream asset class, attracting the attention and recognition of investors, we believe Bitcoin will become a powerful treasury reserve asset. With the recent approval of Bitcoin ETFs and increasing activity from institutional investors, Bitcoin will be a valuable complement to our treasury strategy. We believe Bitcoin's anti-inflationary characteristics may make it a reliable asset with a store of value function." US-listed company LQR House Inc. recently announced that its board of directors has approved the purchase of $1 million worth of Bitcoin as part of its capital management strategy. Additionally, the company will now accept cryptocurrency payments on CWSpirits.com, allowing customers to flexibly use digital currencies to purchase alcoholic beverages.
As traditional institutions continue to increase their BTC purchases, many well-known figures are full of confidence in its future development.
Putin: No one can ban Bitcoin, everyone is working to reduce costs and improve reliability
Russian President Putin stated at the Russia Calling investment forum that "Who can ban Bitcoin? No one can. Who can ban the use of other electronic payment methods? No one can either. Because these are new technologies. Regardless of the future of the US dollar, these tools will develop in one way or another, because everyone is working to reduce costs and improve reliability."
Crypto Trader Cobie: It is more reasonable for Bitcoin's market cap to be 5 to 10 times that of gold, as it has become a more scarce digital gold than gold
Cryptocurrency trader Jordan Fish (alias Cobie) posted on the X platform that "Bitcoin overtaking gold is just a reminder to return to rational reality. The multiple it overtakes is the more interesting question. Perhaps 5 to 10 times is the fair valuation that is being approached in this process."
He further added: "Honestly, while gold will also face serious competition from Bitcoin alternative assets, Bitcoin is essentially digital gold for the interplanetary world, so as humanity becomes a multi-planetary species, the mineral rocks and gold investors on Earth may choose the more superior assets above. Many other gold cases: perhaps future AI can transmute, or perhaps future humans who have conquered the stars will be able to explore infinite gold mines in space. In contrast, we seem unlikely to find any Bitcoin in space."
CryptoQuant CEO: The Bitcoin bull market is starting, and the current data is similar to 2020
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated on X that the Bitcoin bull market is starting, and the current data is similar to the market performance in 2020. On-chain data over the past few months has shown whales continuously accumulating Bitcoin, which many were skeptical about at the time, but the reasons for this accumulation now seem quite clear.
He further analyzed that the mining cost has doubled after the halving, and the price needs to rise to maintain the profitability of miners. Additionally, many traders have been shorting Bitcoin, which may drive the bull market through short squeezes. And based on the performance of previous halving cycles, the Bitcoin bull market usually starts in the fourth quarter.
Satoshi Act Fund Co-Founder: 10 US states plan to introduce "strategic Bitcoin reserve" legislation
Dennis Porter, co-founder of Satoshi Act Fund, stated that multiple US states are preparing to propose sovereign Bitcoin reserve legislation. Porter is lobbying local policymakers to introduce BTC reserve legislation in 10 states, and disclosed this progress on X, emphasizing the efforts of Satoshi Act Fund to pass Bitcoin-centric laws.
He said: "I can now officially confirm and announce that 10 states in the US will be introducing 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' legislation. We will win with Bitcoin and lead the world." Porter added that it is a long and arduous road to get the law passed in 10 states.
Deribit CEO: The options market is betting on a bigger BTC rebound, and derivatives traders are overwhelmingly bullish
Luuk Strijers, CEO of cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Deribit, pointed out that based on options market data, cryptocurrency derivatives traders appear to be overwhelmingly bullish, betting that Bitcoin has more room for a rebound.
Short-term Possibility: Beware of Corrections After the Surge
As BTC breaks through the important $100,000 mark, while most investors may not want to face this issue, caution is still needed for potential correction risks amid the excitement.
In general, there are three main factors facing the current market that could lead to a correction.
Correction Factor One: The Fear and Greed Index Remains at a High Level
The first factor is the current public sentiment frenzy, with the Fear and Greed Index remaining at a high level.
Alternative data shows that the Fear and Greed Index is 84 today, still at the "Extreme Greed" level, and the level last week was also "Extreme Greed". As the saying goes, "Buy when no one is asking, sell when everyone is clamoring," based on the current sentiment data, while it is impossible to judge the short-term BTC top, there is always a risk of a correction.
The panic index threshold is 0-100, including indicators: volatility (25%) + market trading volume (25%) + social media heat (15%) + market survey (15%) + the proportion of BTC in the entire market (10%) + Google hot word analysis (10%)
Trigger for correction two: there is a window period for the realization of crypto policies
The second factor is that there is a window period for the realization of Trump's policies, and the increase in uncertainty will lead to institutions cashing out for profits.
Since Trump's inauguration is on January 20 next year, about one and a half months from now, and crypto-related policies are not a priority for Trump after he officially takes office.Investment bank TDCowen although believes that the regulatory environment will change as expected, but also emphasizes that "the focus of the Trump team is to extend tax cuts and solve tariff and trade issues, and cryptocurrency will not be their top priority", so the strength and timing of policy implementation is still to be discussed. In addition, analysts believe that "Trump was once a skeptic of cryptocurrency, but after digital asset companies invested heavily during the campaign to promote their interests, he changed his stance, and there are still questions about the feasibility and implementation timeline of his promises."
In summary, there is still a window period of nearly two months before Trump officially takes office. If a large amount of funds choose to cash out when BTC breaks through $100,000 to avoid risks and wait for Trump's attitude towards the crypto industry as soon as he takes office, this will be a "bearish" factor for the short-term price of BTC, and a significant correction may occur.
Trigger for correction three: the continuous rise in leverage
The third factor is the continuous rise in the current market leverage, which has objectively laid the groundwork for the significant volatility of the market.
Coinglass data shows that the total outstanding Bitcoin futures contracts have reached 626,100 BTC (about $63 billion), continuously hitting a new high; the notional value of the total outstanding BTC options contracts is $36.8 billion, approaching the historical high.
Looking back on past trends, leverage is both a catalyst for the bull market and a trigger for extreme market conditions. Although market trend predictions should not be "grasping at straws", risk management is always a key factor that cannot be ignored.
Supplementary reading
Understand the new SEC Chairman Paul Atkins: Is the crypto industry celebrating too early?
