Author: JiaYi
Recently, XRP (Ripple) has experienced a remarkable surge, soaring from a low of $0.48 a month ago to a high of $2.9, a rise of more than five times. What are the deeper market reasons behind this wave of growth?
The "Front and Back" of the XRP Surge
As a heavily regulated coin, XRP has always been seen as a barometer of US Crypto regulation. Since the long-standing lawsuit between Ripple Labs and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) broke out, XRP's performance has been closely linked to the dynamics of US regulatory policies.
Favorable progress in the lawsuit with the US SEC: The long-standing lawsuit between the US SEC and Ripple Labs has seen new developments, with the court ruling that XRP does not constitute a security in certain transactions, which has greatly boosted market confidence;
Potential regulatory support: The New York State regulatory authority may approve Ripple Labs' stablecoin RLUSD, which provides new space and possibilities for Ripple's future development;
Technology and infrastructure upgrades: Ripple's continuous optimization in technology, especially the improvements in the Ripple Ledger (XRPL), as well as the potential involvement of US institutions, have enhanced the intrinsic value of XRP;
Market recovery: The overall recovery of the cryptocurrency market has created favorable conditions for the rise of XRP.
It is worth mentioning that the 24-hour spot trading volume of XRP once exceeded that of BTC, and among the top five trading exchanges, South Korea's Upbit and Bithumb exchanges also occupy important positions.
A "Clairvoyant" Prediction 8 Months Ago: Was the XRP Surge Destined?
This phenomenon makes me recall a prophecy video that I had dismissed as "quackery" 8 months ago. Not only did the video accurately predict the surge in XRP, but many of its other eye-catching predictions have also come true one by one, such as its precise prediction of the attack on Trump (including details of the ear injury and trajectory).
After Trump is re-elected, the US will face a severe economic crisis similar to the Great Depression of 1929, followed by a gradual recovery;
In the coming period, the US dollar may collapse, while digital currencies (but seemingly not Bitcoin) and gold will see a surge.
We all know that the US dollar has long dominated the global economy. The status of the US dollar is due to various factors, including its role as an international settlement currency, the stable political and economic system of the US, and its role as a global safe-haven asset.
However, the US dollar system is currently facing increasing challenges, such as debt expansion, the acceleration of de-dollarization, and the response measures of the Trump administration, all of which suggest that the US dollar system may be heading towards a crisis:
Debt expansion: The US federal debt has reached $34 trillion, with daily interest payments alone reaching $2.4 billion. Over the next ten years, debt interest payments will exceed $12.9 trillion, equivalent to twice the GDP of Switzerland.
Accelerated de-dollarization: Major economies such as China, Russia, and the European Union are accelerating the process of de-dollarization, signing agreements to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. Particularly between China and Russia, energy trade has completely departed from the US dollar system, and this trend is spreading globally.
Massive fiscal spending: As a result, the Trump administration has proposed establishing a "Department of Government Efficiency" to reduce fiscal expenditures, with Musk appointed as the head of this department;
Pressure of global economic recession: The high-interest rate environment has increased the debt burden of enterprises and residents, and there are clear signs of US economic weakness, with a slowdown in non-farm employment growth and a rise in the unemployment rate.
New Variables for Crypto in the US Dollar Crisis
If the US dollar system really faces collapse, it could have a huge impact on the global financial system. What will be the impact on the cryptocurrency market in this scenario?
Although the following analysis is just a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice, we can still glimpse some potential opportunities and risks.
Negative Impacts:
Stablecoin collapse: The major stablecoins in the current market, such as USDT and USDC, are all US dollar-based. If a US dollar crisis erupts, the anchoring mechanism of these stablecoins may fail, causing their value to plummet, and the "stablecoins" in users' hands may become worthless;
Market volatility: A US dollar crisis will lead to violent fluctuations in global capital markets, and the cryptocurrency market will not be immune. In the short term, panic selling may exacerbate market instability;
Potential Opportunities:
Bitcoin's ascension: In times of turmoil in the global financial system, Bitcoin as "digital gold" may become a safe-haven asset for investors. Countries like Turkey and Argentina have already proven that Bitcoin can serve as a store of value when their national currencies collapse;
The rise of DeFi: The collapse of the US dollar system may prompt more people to turn to decentralized finance (DeFi). Compared to the inefficiency of the traditional financial system, DeFi provides more efficient and convenient solutions for remittances, lending, and other areas.
However, the US dollar is the world's largest "Too Big To Fail" asset, so while people joke every year that the US dollar credit system is going to collapse sooner or later, no one really believes it will happen in their lifetime. But for those of us who invest, especially those of us with a large portion of our assets in Crypto, which is an extremely liquidity-sensitive asset, we cannot ignore even the slightest possibility.
Whether it is XRP, which has cross-border payment attributes, or other Crypto assets, they may provide alternative solutions when the US dollar system is in turmoil, and even Ripple, which is deeply integrated with the traditional financial system, may become a "bridge asset" in special circumstances, further driving up its price.
For investors, this potential trend is not only a risk, but also an opportunity.
