After Bitcoin rose to $100,000, a sharp downward plunge occurred this morning, with about $600 million in liquidations in 24 hours. The CMC Altcoin Season Index rose to 88, and the market has been rising for nearly 100 consecutive days, entering a critical moment.
Bitcoin plunges to $90,500
Yesterday, after BTC broke through $100,000, it fell sharply in the evening. At 6:28 am on December 6th, the BTC/USDT pair experienced an extreme plunge, with BTC briefly dropping to $90,500. $477 million was liquidated in 12 hours, mainly long positions, reaching $410 million. It has now gradually recovered to $97,860, and other Altcoins such as ETH have also gradually recovered after a short-term correction.
Bitcoin spot ETF data can help understand the trend of off-exchange capital. When there is a large net inflow, the buying pressure increases, and the possibility of a rise in the Bitcoin price is greater. According to SoSovalue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs are still in a state of continuous net inflow, but the inflow amount is gradually decreasing. After a series of increases, the Bitcoin funding rate reached a high point on December 5th, and has now fallen back as the leverage of the bulls was liquidated yesterday, indicating that the market's bullish momentum has weakened.
In addition, on the morning of December 6th, US President-elect Trump announced that he will appoint David O. Sacks as the White House's AI and Cryptocurrency Supervisor. David O. Sacks, as a crypto-friendly figure, has shown firm belief in crypto in the early years. In 2018, David O. Sacks also joined the advisory committee of the decentralized trading protocol 0x. With David O. Sacks taking office, Bitcoin may surge again.
The Microstrategy company, which is strongly related to Bitcoin, is also expected to be included in the Nasdaq-100 Index, thereby entering the world's largest ETF: QQQ, which will bring passive capital inflows to MSTR. Currently, MSTR has met all the conditions for entering the Nasdaq-100 Index, and its market capitalization ranks 66th among the qualifying companies, and the top 75 companies will be automatically included in the Nasdaq-100 Index.
Altcoin rally continues, AI sector sees broad gains
Although BTC experienced a plunge yesterday, Altcoins did not see a significant decline, and market sentiment remains optimistic, with the Greed Index reaching 72.
On December 6th, the official OpenAI conference was held, releasing the full version of o1 on the first day, and also providing the o1 Pro Mode. o1 has made breakthrough progress in three key areas: solving difficult math problems, programming ability tests, and analyzing complex scientific problems. Compared to the preview version, all indicators have generally increased by more than 40%. Version updates will continue to be released over the next 12 days.
Possibly influenced by the OpenAI conference, the AI sector has seen a broad rally. According to SoSovalue data, the AI sector saw widespread gains yesterday. According to Bitget's market data, JASMY rose 45.26% in 24 hours, MASA rose 28.96%, WLD rose 25.86%, and RENDER and ANKR also rose over 20% in 24 hours.
The Non-Fungible Token (NFT) sector has also gradually warmed up in the past 7 days, becoming the sector with the largest 7-day gain of 30%. According to CryptoSlam data, the CryptoSlam 500 NFT Composite Index, which measures the performance of the NFT market, has also rebounded by about 33% in the past three months.
In addition, the DeFi sector has also seen consecutive gains, with CRV up about 60% in the past week, MORPHO up about 75%, and tokens like UNI and AAVE also performing well. Among public chain tokens, the old "zombie coins" XRP, XLM, and ALGO have seen declines after consecutive gains, while the MOVE token SUI has continued to rise, breaking through $4 USDT, with a gain of about 25% in the past few days.
Altcoin index continues to rise, market sentiment remains optimistic
Looking at the Altcoin season indicators, all indicators have seen a comprehensive increase, and the market may have reached a short-term high, but market sentiment remains optimistic, and the market is now at a critical moment.
From the Altcoin season indicators, the current value has risen to 88. This indicator is intended to measure the profitability of Altcoins relative to Bitcoin. Specifically, it represents how many tokens in the top 50 Altcoins have performed better than BTC in the previous quarter (90 days), and the higher the value, the more it indicates the current Altcoin season. This value has reached a high for the year, compared to around 30 at the beginning of November.
The Upbit Altcoin trading volume, as an indicator of the market's FOMO sentiment, can also reflect the current state of the Altcoin season to a certain extent. Generally speaking, when Korean investors are frantically FOMO-ing, and the trading volume reaches a peak, it is time to escape. Currently, this value has also reached a high for the year.
From the perspective of BTC market dominance, it reached a stage high of 61% on November 21st. Historically, when Bitcoin's market capitalization reaches the 65-70% range, an Altcoin season usually begins. This year, after reaching 61%, an Altcoin-wide rally has already started. Subsequently, BTC.D has continued to decline and is currently at 55%.
Analysts have different views on the market outlook
Regarding the market outlook, analysts have different views, and the market may enter a critical moment of gaming.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Research and Cryptocurrency Research at Standard Chartered Bank, said, "I am further optimistic about the market outlook, and expect the price to rise to around $200,000 by the end of next year, against the backdrop of potential increased institutional investment in Bitcoin." He stated in the report that "by 2025, Standard Chartered expects the inflow of institutional funds to continue at or exceed the pace of 2024 into Bitcoin."
Lau, an analyst at Oppenheimer, warned investors that Bitcoin prices will be volatile. He said, "Once Bitcoin reaches $100,000, investors need to be cautious, as there may be selling pressure, and the market will be looking for the next breakthrough point."
Trader Paulwei said, "Since September 7th, BTC has been in a rapid and unilateral upward trend for about 90 days, and will reach 100 days around December 14th. Historically, the market may see a correction trend after 100 consecutive days of gains."
