How to better utilize the "money-making time" in the crypto market?
Author: Joe, Foresight News
We are currently in the "money-making time" of the cryptocurrency market.
One month after Trump's election, "crypto traders" experienced the "money-making moment" in the cryptocurrency market. Taking November 6th, the day Trump was elected as the new US president, as the time node, in the one month period (November 6th - December 6th), more than half of the top 100 cryptocurrency tokens by market cap have seen gains over 100%, with some even doubling in a single day, marking the official start of the "Altcoin season".
According to the latest statistics from Foresight News, during the period of November 6th - December 6th, 55% of the top 100 cryptocurrency tokens by market cap have seen gains over 100%, 84% have seen gains over 50%, and 97% have seen gains over 30%. Among the top 100 tokens, only three saw gains below 30%: BNB (24%), XMR (24%), and Popcat (-1.56%). Even among the tokens ranked 100-200 by market cap, 39% have seen gains over 100% and 87% have seen gains over 30%.
In just one month, over half of the top 100 cryptocurrency tokens have seen gains over 100%, which can be described as a "gold rush" period in the crypto market (note: even the lowest market cap token among the current top 100 cryptocurrencies has a market cap over $1 billion, reflecting the post-surge statistics).
So when did this "Altcoin season" start? Why did it start? How long will this "money-making moment" of the Altcoin season last? Does the lack of a major surge in certain cryptocurrencies mean they have been abandoned by the market? How should ordinary crypto participants position themselves? This article is a relatively subjective analysis by the author, not investment advice, and is only for reference.
How did the "Altcoin season" come about?
Trump's election is considered the key event that triggered this round of the cryptocurrency "Altcoin season".
If you open the "one-year trend chart" of any cryptocurrency, you will find that November 6th is an important turning point and watershed. As an investor or trader, grasping this important time point of Trump's election and making key deployments has become particularly important.
On November 6, 2024, Trump successfully defeated Harris and was elected the new President of the United States. Due to the many promises Trump made during the campaign to support the development of the cryptocurrency industry, he was dubbed the first "Bitcoin President" of the US, which also opened the curtain for global capital to flow into the cryptocurrency industry.
As the stage of the bull market unfolds, the "flow" and "flow rate" of capital within the cryptocurrency market, i.e., which sectors capital chooses first and which tracks it chooses later, and where more capital is left behind in certain sectors and where less capital is left behind in certain tracks, have become the focus of traders' attention.
How to efficiently capture the "Altcoin season"?
The author believes that from the perspective of Bitcoin breaking through key levels, this round of "Altcoin season" can be roughly divided into three stages: the startup stage, the acceleration stage, and the full-fledged stage.
(1) Startup stage of the Altcoin season. The first stage lasted one week, from November 6th to November 14th, during which Bitcoin rose from $69,000 to $90,000. The feature of this stage is that Bitcoin and the Memecoin sector led the entire crypto market.
(2) Acceleration stage of the Altcoin season. The second stage lasted nine days, from November 14th to November 23rd, during which Bitcoin briefly consolidated around $90,000 before quickly breaking through $99,000 but stopped at $100,000. The feature of this stage is that "popular public chains" like Solana and SUI achieved rapid growth, and the market saw cases of 100x or even 1000x large MC memecoins in a short period of time. Altcoins doubling in a single day became frequent.
(3) Full-fledged stage of the Altcoin season. The third stage lasted two weeks, from November 23rd to December 5th, during which Bitcoin consolidated and adjusted after breaking through $99,000 and finally officially broke through $100,000. The feature of this stage is that Altcoins took off across the board, with the crypto market in full bloom and most Altcoins doubling in value.
It can be seen that in the first and second stages, capital mainly flowed into the hottest crypto tracks of the year, such as memecoins and popular public chains, while in the third stage, capital began to "fill in the gaps" and flow to relatively obscure tracks and sectors.
The first stage, which left a deep impression on the author, was the explosion of Memecoins.
This stage lasted about a week, from November 6th to November 14th. During this week, Bitcoin rose all the way from $69,000 to $90,000. During this stage, the gains of Memecoins were clearly higher than most sectors of the crypto market. The Memecoin leader Doge led the charge, rising from $0.17 on November 6th to $0.46 on November 23rd, a gain of 170%. The Memecoin leaders WIF and BRETT of Solana and Base also saw gains of over 100% in a week. As the hotly discussed track in the industry this cycle, and with Doge riding the coattails of the key figure Musk in the election, it was the first to take off, which also fits the trading and flow habits of large-scale capital.
In addition, the "listing effect" of top exchanges like Binance was amplified during this stage. On November 11th, Binance announced the listing of PNUT and ACT spot trading. From the 11th to the 14th, PNUT surged 20-fold in three days, and ACT surged 40-fold in three days. They only stopped their crazy surge when Bitcoin reached the new resistance level of $90,000.
In the second stage, what left a deep impression on the author was the full-fledged explosion of public chains, with two "dark horse public chains" leading the charge, and many Altcoins doubling in a single day.
The second stage lasted nine days, from November 14th to November 23rd, during which Bitcoin rose from $90,000 to $99,000. This stage saw various promising public chains continue to explode, as they were one of the largest tracks, further absorbing a large influx of capital. Solana and Sui were the hot tracks of 2024 and became the priority destinations for large-scale capital inflows. From November 6th to November 23rd, in 17 days, Solana and Sui rose 73% and 100% respectively.
During this stage, the chain also saw the emergence of many new 100x or even 1000x large MC memecoins. For example, the new 100x coin Clanker on Base surged from $2 on the 13th to $140 on the 27th before falling back, realizing a maximum gain of 70 times in two weeks.
In the third stage, Altcoins took off across the board.
The third stage lasted two weeks, from November 23rd to December 5th, during which Bitcoin consolidated and adjusted after breaking through $99,000 and finally officially broke through $100,000. During this period, not only did Altcoins collectively take off, but most Altcoins doubled in value within a month, with some even tripling or quadrupling.
For example, TRX surged 97% in just one night from $0.23 to $0.44 on December 3rd; the "US SEC Chairman Candidate Concept Coin" RSR surged 150% from less than $0.01 to $0.025 from the early morning of December 3rd to the early morning of December 4th; the "RWA Leader" Ondo surged nearly 50% in less than a day from $1.2 to $1.72 on December 3rd, tripling in a month...
These tokens already had very high market caps, many exceeding $1 billion, and some like TRX even exceeding $10 billion, yet they could still double in a single day. At this stage, most crypto participants had already realized that the Altcoin season had arrived, and the crypto world had entered the "money-making moment".
During the period from November 6 to December 6, among the cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization of over $100, 7 achieved a growth of over 3 times, including: XRP (3 times), XLM (4 times), HBAR (5 times), ALGO (3 times), IOTA (3 times), PNUT (16 times), and CRV (3.4 times).
However, after further research, the author found that except for PNUT, which achieved a super-large excess growth due to being listed on the leading exchange Binance at the right time, the other tokens do not have universal tradability. Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on a social platform on November 16, saying, "XRP, ADA and Doge performed outstandingly, completely crushing all other assets touched by the crypto Twitter community in the early bull market, which was absolutely not on my expectation list, but I still gladly accepted it."
Overall, seizing the key moment of Trump's election as the US president and taking a heavy position may be a more important thing. Secondly, choosing relatively high-quality cryptocurrencies, such as Solana, SUI, Arb, OP, and ENA, as at least during this period, their growth rates are roughly the same.
Sector Rotation, Who Was Left Behind?
A month's time is enough for most of the cryptocurrency sectors to rotate, but there are still some cryptocurrency sectors that have not yet been rotated.
And these sectors may become the focus of market exploration in the future, or they may be completely abandoned by the market.
After research, the author found that the major cryptocurrency sectors that have been rotated during the period from November 6 to December 7 include: the public chain sector (Ethereum up 50%, SUI up 90%, ARB up 120%); the stablecoin sector (ENA up 164%); the AI sector (WLD up 106%); the CEX sector (Bitget up 135%); the DEX sector (Uniswap up 100%); the RWA sector (ONDO up 147%); the staking and restaking sector (PUFFER up 216%); the NFT sector (BLUR up 100%); the memecoin sector (Doge up 111%, PEPE 131%); the metaverse sector (SAND up 261%); the DEPIN sector (RENDER up 115%); the Web3 gaming sector (GALA up 188%); the decentralized storage sector (FIL up 121%), etc. Most of them are sector leaders or "new dark horses" that have emerged in major sectors.
However, there are still many sectors that have not been fully rotated, such as the Bitcoin sector, the TON sector, the Web3 gaming sector, and the Web3 social sector. The leading tokens in these sectors and the majority of tokens in their ecosystems have not performed strongly in this almost "full-bloom" altcoin season.
The Bitcoin ecosystem has been a hot topic in the market several times in 2024, but its performance was not satisfactory under the circumstances of the full-scale takeoff of altcoins on November 6-December 6. Among the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, the Bitcoin ecosystem tokens Ordi, Sats, and DOG had increases of 41%, 31%, and 55% respectively, none of which exceeded 100%.
The TON sector and track have also been a focus of market attention several times in 2024, and multiple tokens have been listed on major mainstream exchanges, but the overall performance has not shown a strong momentum. The growth of TON was 44%, NOT 53%, and DOGS 51%, and the other tokens have not yet entered the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, and most of the TON ecosystem tokens in the top 500 have not achieved over 100% returns.
In the Web3 gaming sector, the highest market capitalization is GALA, with a growth of 188%, but this is mainly reflected at the infrastructure level. At the specific game product level, although GMT and ACE have also grown by more than 50%, their growth has not exceeded 100%, and the market has not yet decided to fully buy into them.
The Web3 social sector is similar, and in the list of the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, no Web3 social-related cryptocurrencies were included. This seems to also mean that the development of the Web3 social track is still in the early stage, and the market has not found enough good investment targets in it.
However, although these sectors have not performed strongly, it may mean that the sector rotation has not yet ended, and structural opportunities still exist.
How Long Will the Altcoin Season Last?
The altcoin season has been going on for a full month, and when it will end has become a focus of market attention.
The author believes that the end time of the altcoin season needs to be analyzed in a time span of one week or two weeks. The first month of the altcoin season can be divided into three stages: the startup stage (Bitcoin $6.9K - $9K), the acceleration stage ($9K - $9.9K), and the full-bloom stage (officially breaking through $10K). The first stage lasted one week, from November 6 to November 14; the second stage lasted nine days, from November 14 to November 23; and the third stage lasted two weeks, from November 23 to December 5.
If Bitcoin fails to break a new high again within two weeks, for example, if it fails to break through $11K within two weeks, this may mean that the market's new liquidity is insufficient, and the altcoin season may end here. Similarly, for Ethereum, if it fails to continue to rise in price on the basis of $4,000 within two weeks, it is also very likely to mean that the market has no further power.
In addition, the US Ethereum spot ETF has been experiencing net inflows for seven consecutive days, and if there is a net outflow, this may also mean that a turning point has appeared in this round of altcoin season.
The altcoin market has already reached a scale of hundreds of billions of dollars, which has naturally generated some market rules.
The start of the altcoin season is often triggered by a major event, such as the approval of the US Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10, or the victory of Trump in the US presidential election on November 6. After these two events occurred, the entire crypto market entered a crazy bull market, and it often lasts for a month or even several months.
However, the inflow of funds into the crypto market is limited, and the altcoin season will eventually come to an end. The more frenetic the altcoin season, the shorter its duration. If Bitcoin and Ethereum fail to hit new highs again within one week or two weeks, this may be a warning signal worth paying attention to.
