Now, we are in the "money-picking time" of the crypto market. One month after Trump's election, "coin speculators" experienced the "money-picking moment" in the crypto market. Taking November 6th, the day Trump was elected as the new President of the United States, as the time node, in one month (November 6th - December 6th), more than half of the top 100 tokens by market capitalization have increased by more than 100%, and the phenomenon of tokens doubling in a single day has been occurring almost daily, officially ushering the crypto market into the "Altcoin Season".
According to the latest statistics from Foresight News, during the period from November 6th to December 6th, 55% of the top 100 tokens by market capitalization have increased by more than 100%, 84% have increased by more than 50%, and 97% have increased by more than 30%.
Among the top 100 tokens, only three tokens had gains below 30%: BNB (24%), XMR (24%), and Popcat (-1.56%). During the same period, even among the tokens ranked 100-200 by market capitalization, 39% of them had gains exceeding 100%, and 87% had gains exceeding 30%.
In one month, more than half of the top 100 tokens in the crypto market had gains exceeding 100%, which can be said to be a period of "gold everywhere" in the crypto market (Note: Currently, the top 100 cryptocurrencies, even the token with the lowest market capitalization, have a market capitalization of over $1 billion, which is the statistical data after the increase).
So when did this Altcoin Season start? Why did it start? How long will this "money-picking moment" of the Altcoin Season last? Does the fact that some cryptocurrencies have not seen a big surge during the Altcoin Season mean that they have been abandoned by the market? How should ordinary crypto practitioners deploy their strategies? This article is a relatively subjective analysis by the author, not investment advice, and is only for reference.
How was the "Altcoin Season" born?
Trump's election is considered the most critical event that triggered this round of crypto "Altcoin Season".
If you open the "one-year trend chart" of any cryptocurrency, you will find that November 6th is an important turning point and watershed. As an investor or trader, grasping the important time point of Trump's election and making key deployments becomes particularly important.
On November 6th, 2024, Trump successfully defeated Harris and was elected as the new President of the United States. Due to Trump's many promises to support the development of the crypto industry during the campaign, people referred to him as America's first "Bitcoin President", which also opened the prelude to the influx of global capital into the crypto industry.
As the prelude to the cyclical bull market is unfolded, the "flow" and "flow rate" of capital within the crypto market, that is, which sectors capital chooses first and which tracks capital chooses later; which sectors capital leaves more and which tracks capital leaves less, have become the focus of traders.
How to effectively grasp the "Altcoin Season"?
The author believes that from the perspective of Bitcoin breaking through key levels, this round of "Altcoin Season" can be roughly divided into three stages: the Altcoin Season startup stage, the Altcoin Season acceleration stage, and the Altcoin Season full-scale takeoff stage.
(1) Altcoin Season startup stage. The first stage lasted one week, from November 6th to November 14th. During this stage, Bitcoin rose from $69,000 to $90,000, and the characteristics of this stage were that Bitcoin and the large MC memecoin sector led the entire crypto market.
(2) Altcoin Season acceleration stage. The second stage lasted nine days, from November 14th to November 23rd. After Bitcoin briefly consolidated around $90,000, it quickly broke through $99,000 but stopped at $100,000. The characteristics of this stage were that "popular public chains" like Solana and Sui achieved rapid growth, and the market saw cases of large MC memecoins surging hundreds or even thousands of times in a short period of time. Altcoins doubling in a single day began to occur frequently.
(3) Altcoin Season full-scale takeoff stage. The third stage lasted two weeks, from November 23rd to December 5th. After Bitcoin consolidated and adjusted from $99,000, it finally officially broke through $100,000. The characteristics of this stage were that Altcoins across the board took off, the crypto market blossomed, and most Altcoins doubled in value.
It can be seen that in the first and second stages, capital mainly flowed into the hottest crypto tracks of the year, such as memecoins and popular public chains, while in the third stage, capital began to "fill in the gaps" and flow to relatively obscure tracks and sectors.
The first stage that left a deep impression on the author was the explosion of memecoins.
This stage lasted from November 6th to November 14th, about a week. During this week, Bitcoin rose all the way from $69,000 to $90,000. During this stage, the gains of memecoins were clearly higher than most sectors of the crypto market.
The memecoin leader Doge led the charge, rising from $0.17 on November 6th to $0.46 on November 23rd, a gain of 170%. The leading memecoins of Solana and Base, WIF and BRETT, also surged over 100% in a week.
As the hotly discussed track in this cycle, and with Doge riding on the hot topic of the key figure Musk in this election, memecoins took the lead in growth, which is also in line with the trading and flow habits of large-scale capital.
In addition, the "listing effect" of top exchanges such as Binance has been amplified in this stage. On November 11, Binance announced the listing of two spot trading pairs, PNUT and ACT. From November 11 to 14, PNUT surged 20 times, and ACT surged 40 times. They only stopped the crazy surge when Bitcoin reached a new resistance level of $90,000.
In the second stage, what impressed me the most was the full-scale outbreak of public chains, with two "dark horse public chains" leading the surge, and many altcoins doubling in a single day.
The second stage lasted nine days, from November 14 to November 23, during which Bitcoin rose from $90,000 to $99,000. In this stage, what impressed me the most was that the major potential public chains continued to explode, as one of the largest tracks, they further absorbed a large influx of capital.
Solana and Sui are the hot tracks for 2024 and have become the priority destination for large-scale capital inflows. From November 6 to November 23, a period of 17 days, Solana and Sui rose 73% and 100% respectively.
During this stage, there were also many new 100x or even 1000x "large MC memecoins" on the chain. For example, the new 100x token Clanker on Base surged from $2 on the 13th to $140 on the 27th before falling back, realizing a peak gain of 70 times in two weeks.
In the third stage, altcoins took off across the board.
The third stage lasted two weeks, from November 23 to December 5, during which Bitcoin consolidated after reaching $99,000 and finally broke through $100,000. During this period, not only did altcoins collectively take off, but most altcoins doubled within a month, with some even tripling or quadrupling.
For example, TRX surged 97% in just one night from $0.23 to $0.44 on December 3; the "SEC Chairman Candidate Concept Coin" RSR surged 150% from less than $0.01 to $0.025 in one day from the early morning of December 3 to the early morning of December 4; the "RWA Leader" Ondo surged nearly 50% in less than a day from $1.2 to $1.72 on December 3, tripling in a month...
These tokens already have very high market capitalizations, many exceeding $10 billion, and some like TRX even exceed $100 billion, and can still double in a day. In this stage, most crypto practitioners have realized that the altcoin season has arrived, and the crypto market is in the "money-picking moment".
Between November 6 and December 6, 7 cryptocurrencies with a market cap of over $100 achieved gains of over 3 times, including: XRP (3x), XLM (4x), HBAR (5x), ALGO (3x), IOTA (3x), PNUT (16x), and CRV (3.4x).
However, after further research, the author found that except for PNUT, which achieved a super-large excess gain due to being listed on the top exchange Binance at the right time, the other tokens do not have universal trading characteristics. Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on a social platform on November 16, saying, "XRP, ADA and DOGE have performed outstandingly, completely crushing all other assets touched by the crypto Twitter community in the early bull market, which is absolutely not on my expectation list, but I still accept it gladly."
In general, seizing the key time point of Trump's election as US president and making a heavy layout may be a more important thing. Secondly, choosing relatively high-quality cryptocurrencies such as Solana, SUI, Arb, OP, and ENA, at least in this time period, their gains are roughly the same.
Sector rotation, who was left behind?
In one month's time, most of the cryptocurrency sectors have rotated, but there are still some sectors that have not yet been rotated.
These sectors may become the focus of market exploration in the future, or they may be completely abandoned by the market.
After research, the author found that the major cryptocurrency sectors that have been rotated during the period from November 6 to December 7 include:
Public chain sector (Ethereum up 50%, SUI up 90%, ARB up 120%); Stablecoin sector (ENA up 164%); AI sector (WLD up 106%); CEX sector (Bitget up 135%); DEX sector (Uniswap up 100%); RWA sector (ONDO up 147%); Staking and re-staking sector (PUFFER up 216%); NFT sector (BLUR up 100%); Memecoin sector (DOGE up 111%, PEPE 131%); Metaverse sector (SAND up 261%); DEPIN sector (RENDER up 115%); Web3 gaming sector (GALA up 188%); Decentralized storage sector (FIL up 121%), etc. They are mostly sector leaders or "new dark horses" that have emerged in major tracks.
However, there are still many sectors that have not been fully rotated, such as the Bitcoin sector, the TON sector, the Web3 gaming sector, and the Web3 social sector. The leading tokens and most tokens in these ecosystems have not been able to perform strongly in this almost "full-bloom" altcoin season.
The Bitcoin ecosystem has been a hot topic in the market several times in 2024, but in the context of the full-scale takeoff of altcoins from November 6 to December 6, its performance has not been satisfactory. Among the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market cap, the Bitcoin ecosystem tokens Ordi, Sats, and DOG only gained 41%, 31%, and 55% respectively, without any tokens exceeding 100% gains.
The TON sector and track have also been a focus of market attention several times in 2024, and multiple tokens have been listed on major mainstream exchanges, but the overall performance has not shown a strong momentum. TON gained 44%, NOT 53%, and DOGS 51%, and the other tokens have not yet entered the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market cap, and most of the TON ecosystem tokens in the top 500 have not been able to achieve gains of over 100%.
In the Web3 gaming sector, the highest market cap is GALA, which gained 188%, but this is mainly reflected at the infrastructure level. For specific game products, although GMT, ACE, etc. have also gained over 50%, the gains have not exceeded 100%, and the market has not yet decided to fully buy in.
The Web3 social sector is similar, and none of the cryptocurrency related to Web3 social have made it into the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market cap. This seems to also mean that the development of the Web3 social track is still in the early stage, and the market has not found enough good investment targets.
However, although these sectors have not performed strongly, it may mean that the sector rotation has not yet ended, and structural opportunities still exist.
How long will the altcoin season last?
The altcoin season has been going on for a full month, and when it will end has become a focus of market attention.
The author believes that the end of the Altcoin season needs to be analyzed in terms of a one-week or two-week time span. The first month of the Altcoin season can be divided into three stages: the startup stage (Bitcoin 69,000 U - 90,000 U), the acceleration stage (90,000 U - 99,000 U), and the full bloom stage (99,000 U officially breaks through 100,000 U). The first stage lasted one week, from November 6 to November 14; the second stage lasted nine days, from November 14 to November 23; and the third stage lasted two weeks, from November 23 to December 5.
If Bitcoin fails to break a new high for two weeks, such as failing to break through 110,000 U within two weeks, this may mean that the market lacks new liquidity, and the Altcoin season may come to an end. Similarly, for Ethereum, if it fails to continue to rise in price on the basis of 4,000 U within two weeks, it may also mean that the market lacks the power to continue.
In addition, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF has been experiencing net inflows for seven consecutive days. If there is a net outflow, this may also mean that this round of Altcoin season has reached a turning point.
The Altcoin market in the crypto industry has already reached a scale of hundreds of billions of dollars, which has naturally generated some market rules.
The start of the Altcoin season is often triggered by a major event, such as the approval of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10, or the victory of Trump in the U.S. presidential election on November 6. After these two events, the entire crypto market entered a crazy bull market, often lasting for a month or even several months.
However, the funds flowing into the crypto market are limited, and the Altcoin season will eventually come to an end. The more frenetic the Altcoin season, the shorter its duration. If Bitcoin and Ethereum fail to reach new highs within one or two weeks, this may be a warning signal worth paying attention to.
