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Author: 0xWeilan
Since approaching the psychological barrier of $100,000, BTC has been fluctuating around the $90,000-$100,000 range. Accompanied by the gradual convergence of the moving averages, forming psychological support, BTC broke through $100,000 twice this week, reaching a high of $104,000.
This week, BTC opened at $97,259.17 and closed at $101,174.99, up 4.02% for the week, with effective volume expansion.
Although the political turmoil in South Korea had a temporary impact on the BTC price, and as we emphasized in last week's report, the market has a demand for short-term consolidation, there has been a certain adjustment in the past week, with a maximum amplitude of 12.26%. However, both sentiment and capital are currently in an effective support stage, and are unlikely to affect the medium and long-term upward trend of the price.
Federal Reserve and Economic Data
The U.S. non-farm payroll data released this week was as "expected", but expectations for a Fed rate cut in December have soared to 86%.
In an interview, Fed Chairman Powell said "I feel very good about the state of the economy and monetary policy, so the process of getting to a neutral rate can be more gradual." This statement is only slightly hawkish. And his continued statement that "the good relationship between the Fed and the Treasury will continue under the new administration" has further reassured the market.
Powell also specifically discussed his views on BTC - "BTC is used as a speculative asset; BTC's competitors are gold, not the dollar." This statement is also very meaningful.
The three major stock indexes had mixed results, with the Nasdaq up 3.34% for the week, the S&P 500 up 0.96%, and the Dow Jones down 0.6%.
The U.S. dollar index fell slightly this week, closing at 106.06. Gold continued to decline slightly.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
The two major channel funds continue to see explosive inflows. The total inflow for the week exceeded $8.7 billion, indicating that the $100,000 price level for BTC still has strong buying power. And as BTC approaches $100,000, the Altseason that has already opened up is also continuing to attract inflows of stablecoin channel funds.
This week, the inflow of BTC Spot ETF exceeded $2 billion, still presenting a relatively high level of inflow. Especially considering that this channel saw outflows during the one-week adjustment after BTC approached the $100,000 mark the previous week, the inflows this week have helped alleviate some market concerns.
Stablecoin channel inflows were $5.81 billion, the second largest inflow week of this cycle. A large amount of stablecoins have now been injected into centralized exchanges and smart contract lending DApps, providing ample capital for the market.
This has also directly triggered the Altseason, with the overall market seeing a broad-based rally and market sentiment extremely exuberant.
Selling
With the market rally, selling has also occurred simultaneously.
According to monitoring by the EMC Labs eMerge engine, over 240,000 BTC flowed into centralized exchanges this week, mainly short-selling. However, with strong buying power support, all selling pressure was absorbed, and centralized exchanges recorded a net outflow of over 28,000 BTC.
The continuous selling by short-sellers has led to a significant decline in their floating profit levels, from a previous high of 34% to the current 24%.
Considering only the continued upward trend in November, the current selling pressure is in a normal state and is decreasing. This provides support for BTC to firmly establish itself above $100,000.
Cycle Indicators
The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.875, with the market in an upward phase and in a vigorous upward state.
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