Author: Miles Deutscher, Crypto Analyst
Compiled by Yuliya, PANews
The market is at a critical turning point. After Bitcoin broke the $100,000 mark this week, investors' attention has turned to the next price target. Based on comprehensive data analysis, multiple indicators are showing that Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $150,000 by 2025.
This report will conduct an in-depth analysis from the following four dimensions through 10 key indicators:
- Time cycle analysis
- Macroeconomic factors
- Market demand dynamics
- On-chain data indicators
Time Cycle Analysis
1. The current Bitcoin price trend is highly similar to previous cycle highs.
2. The market has entered the most explosive stage, which is the fastest period of price acceleration.
3. Historically, Bitcoin has always entered the red zone (97% percentile) of the power law probability model, and if this cycle repeats this pattern, it means that Bitcoin's price will break through $196,000.
Macroeconomic Factors
4. The current macroeconomic environment is in the most favorable state since 2021. Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to changes in monetary policy and global liquidity.
5. It is expected that interest rates will continue to be cut in 2025, which will provide strong macroeconomic support for risk assets.
Market Demand Dynamics
6. MicroStrategy is continuously buying according to its 21/21 plan (target to hold 21% of the total Bitcoin supply, with $2.93 billion remaining to be invested).
This affects Bitcoin's demand in two ways:
- MicroStrategy's continuous and aggressive buying pressure
- Speculative capital positioning in advance to cope with future buying pressure
7. The holdings of the US spot ETFs have exceeded 1.1 million Bitcoins, exceeding Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings. This brings sustained buying pressure. Spot ETFs also generate an extremely powerful "unit bias" effect.
On-chain Data Indicators
8. Retail demand for Bitcoin has surged, reaching the highest level since 2020.
9. New capital is driving the current price trend of Bitcoin. "Even at $102,000, it is far from reaching the bubble level - it needs to rise another 43% to reach the usually considered bubble threshold."
10. Even at the $100,000 level, the selling pressure from profit-taking is weakening, indicating that the selling pressure is cooling down.
Market Outlook
Multiple factors are currently highly aligned, indicating that the upward trend will continue. In this environment, Bitcoin breaking through $150,000 will inject strong momentum into the entire cryptocurrency market.
The improvement in market liquidity will inevitably lead to larger upward movements, especially for the Altcoin market. In the coming weeks, we will continue to track and share Altcoin investment opportunities worth paying attention to.
