I. Attention Value - Market Highlights
1. Market Situation
(1) Macro Environment:
l Increased market caution, a significant drop in retail trading volume 10x Research recommends focusing on core assets
On December 9, 10x Research released an analysis pointing out that as the Christmas holiday approaches, the market environment has become increasingly cautious, and the risk of sideways consolidation has also increased. Retail trading volume has dropped significantly, for example, the cryptocurrency trading volume in South Korea has dropped from a peak of $25 billion to the current $6.6 billion. At the same time, Binance's spot trading volume has also dropped from $60 billion to $24 billion, indicating that the overall momentum is weakening. Given these trends, now is an appropriate time to reduce leverage, consolidate positions, and focus on high-conviction core assets.
For Bitcoin, the key support level is at $95,000. If the price breaks through $100,000, this could be a strong buying opportunity; however, if it falls below $95,000, traders should act cautiously and manage risk carefully.
(2) Web3 Sector:
l Digital asset investment products see record inflows of $3.85 billion
According to the latest weekly report from Coinshares, the weekly inflow of digital asset investment products hit a record high last week, reaching a total of $3.85 billion, breaking the record set a few weeks ago. The weekly inflow of Ethereum also reached a new high of $1.2 billion, exceeding the inflow when the ETF was launched in July. Meanwhile, Solana saw an outflow of $14 million. The capital inflow to blockchain stocks reached $124 million, the largest inflow since January this year. The inflow of capital to Bitcoin was $2.5 billion, with a total inflow of $36.5 billion since the beginning of the year. In contrast, the inflow of capital to Bitcoin shorts was only $6.2 million, indicating that investors remain cautious when betting on the recent strong price momentum, as capital inflows typically increase significantly after large price increases.
2. Hot Events
(1) Macro Environment:
l Microsoft's shareholder meeting will decide whether to invest in Bitcoin, the proposal has attracted widespread attention
On December 11, Beijing time, Microsoft will push an important proposal at its annual shareholder meeting - to assess through shareholder voting whether including Bitcoin in the balance sheet is in the long-term interests of shareholders. This vote is considered one of the key events that will impact the cryptocurrency market this week.
This shareholder proposal was originally submitted by the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), a conservative think tank in the United States. NCPPR pointed out that during the ongoing period of inflation, the company's success not only depends on its operating conditions, but also on the ability to preserve the value of its profits. According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the average inflation rate in the United States over the past four years has been 5%, but NCPPR believes the actual inflation rate may be even higher. Therefore, the company has a responsibility to protect its profits from devaluation. However, Microsoft has failed to effectively protect its assets from devaluation by investing most of its assets in U.S. government securities and corporate bonds. NCPPR's proposal points out that although Bitcoin has certain volatility, it is still seen as an excellent inflation hedging tool, and may even be the best choice. Therefore, NCPPR recommends that Microsoft consider allocating at least 1% of its assets to Bitcoin.
As of Q3 2024, Microsoft's cash reserves reached $78.428 billion. This means that if the proposal is successfully passed and the company allocates at least 1% of its funds according to NCPPR's recommendation, Microsoft will have the ability to buy at least $784 million worth of Bitcoin.
(2) Web3 Sector:
l The Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem is thriving, Stacks is about to launch sBTC
On December 9, the Bitcoin scaling solution Stacks released the latest updates, indicating that the Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem is thriving on its platform, and sBTC is about to be launched. Recent highlights include: the yield on USDh provided by Hermetica reaching a historic high of 35%; Velar DEX launching permissionless pool creation functionality; Bitflow previewing a user interface for the L2 Runes AMM; and the ALEX Surge initiative continuing to drive increased activity in the tokenized communities on Stacks. These developments mark positive progress in Stacks' efforts to drive innovation and applications in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
3. Hot Narratives
l Pudgy Penguins posted "The calm before the storm", hinting at an upcoming token launch
The Ethereum blue-chip Non-Fungible Token (NFT) project "Pudgy Penguins", known for its cute penguin images, announced on December 6th that it will launch its official token $PENGU on the Solana chain, with plans to issue the token in December 2024. Yesterday, Pudgy Penguins posted on X "The calm before the storm", hinting that the token launch is imminent, and Solana co-founder Toly also reposted the post. The total supply of $PENGU is 88,888,888,888, of which 25.9% will go to the Pudgy community and 24.12% to other communities. Pudgy Penguins reminded users that the token has not yet been released, and malicious attackers may create fake websites and tokens, so users should not interact with these websites or contract addresses.
II. Attention Value - Hot Projects
1. Project Introduction
l $JAIL | AI | @jailbreakme_xyz
- AI model vulnerability testing platform, with the goal of enabling companies to test their AI models and agents in a distributed environment, and identify timely vulnerabilities and weaknesses before production deployment.
- Participants can receive rewards by successfully "jailbreaking" and discovering vulnerabilities in AI models.
- This project allows developers to stress test their LLMs and improve the infrastructure used to train AI agents.
III. Attention Value - Sector Rotation
1. Hot Sectors
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Sector Breakdown
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
