On December 12, according to 4E monitoring, data showed that the year-on-year and month-on-month increases in US CPI in November accelerated, while the year-on-year and month-on-month increases in core CPI were flat compared to October, and all these data were in line with expectations. The market has almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.
On Wednesday, the three major US stock indexes had mixed performances, with the Dow Jones index closing down 0.22%, the S&P 500 index up 0.82%, and the tech and chip stocks generally rising, pushing the Nasdaq up 1.77% to a new all-time high and closing above the 20,000-point mark for the first time. Among the large-tech stocks, Tesla rose nearly 6%, leading the tech giants like Google, Meta, and Amazon to new highs, and Tesla's six-day winning streak also made Musk the world's first person with a net worth exceeding $400 billion. Cryptocurrency concept stocks collectively soared, with MicroStrategy up over 9% and Coinbase up nearly 4%.
Affected by the US CPI data meeting expectations, the cryptocurrency market has generally warmed up and risen. Bitcoin rose 4.5% to regain the $10,000 level, Ethereum broke through $3,800, and Altcoins collectively rebounded strongly, generally returning to the levels before yesterday's decline. Data shows that the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $223 million yesterday, and over 9.7 billion USDT flowed into CEX from Tether in the past 24 hours, with active market trading and a bullish sentiment.
In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the US dollar rebounded in a V-shape and rose for four consecutive days to a new two-week high, with non-US currencies generally falling; the expectation of rate cuts boosted gold prices, with spot gold rising 0.9% to test $2,720, a new five-week high; US EIA crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week, and global demand is expected to rebound, with these dual positive factors driving oil prices to continue to strengthen.
With the release of non-farm and CPI data, a Fed rate cut next week has become a foregone conclusion, but given that the data itself has risen compared to the previous values, it has to some extent compressed the Fed's room for rate cuts next year, and the market expects a lower probability of a rate cut in January 2023.
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