Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
In a series of recent articles, we have mentioned the topic of market conditions and Altcoins many times, but from the messages received in the background, I still get the feeling that:
Whenever the market goes up, someone will leave a message asking where they should 'YOLO' now?
Whenever the market goes down, someone will ask if they should immediately 'cross margin'?
Perhaps it is because this field is still filled with speculative opportunities that ordinary people cannot experience in other fields, so many people's mentality seems to be rather restless. Whenever the market goes up, they shout "the bull is here", and whenever the market goes down, they shout "the bull is gone". Whenever the market goes up, they shout "the Altcoin season has begun", and whenever the market goes down, they shout "the Altcoin season is over". The result is a frenetic series of operations, and in the end, they find that their entire position has only a dead mouse left.
I have always believed that the content I have output should be quite clear, and at least the overall direction of the thinking should be helpful or inspiring to some people. But why do I keep receiving similar messages as mentioned above in the background? Then I looked at the stay time and completion rate of some recent methodological series articles in the public account background, and they are generally relatively low. For example, an article that takes about 10 minutes to read in full (calculated at 450 words per minute), the average stay is less than 2 minutes, and the average completion rate is basically around 30%.
There are only two possible reasons for this: one is that the content we output is not attractive enough, and the other is that some people do not have enough reading patience.
First, from the background data, most people do not have much patience to read a long theoretical article in full, and I can fully understand this. After all, in the era of information explosion and short videos, fewer and fewer people can persist in watching the long text and images posted by a blogger.
Moreover, most people are probably also following dozens or even hundreds of similar bloggers. If we require everyone to spend 10 minutes reading the articles of each blogger, that would be several hours a day... If I put myself in their shoes, I couldn't do it either. Therefore, any blogger (including me) has no reason (and no obligation) to demand that others must do something or complete something.
Although from the perspective of a blogger, we also hope that the content we output can be seen by more people, and that they can give a "like" or "read again" to support us after reading. But as mentioned above, many things do not need to be forced. Whether to read or not, how much to read, these are indeed the freedom of each reader.
Secondly, I have been thinking about some things. In terms of content output, I will still adhere to my original intention. We will only focus on our own learning and thinking, and will not consider deliberately decorating the content to create attraction, nor will we randomly change our own style to cater to more traffic. We will continue to choose the form of long text and images to output content irregularly. We write casually, and those who are destined to see it can see it casually.
In addition, Talk Li Talk Outside has actually provided a lot of supporting tools so far. If reading the articles still cannot meet the needs of a small number of partners, then:
For partners who have further learning needs, we have compiled the [Talk Li Talk Outside Toolbox] and provided related e-book series collections, such as "Blockchain Thinking Advanced" (about 120,000 words), "Cryptocurrency Basics Introduction" (about 80,000 words, to be released this month), and some auxiliary content including the "Quotation Collection".
For partners who have further communication needs, we have also built the [Talk Li Talk Outside Mutual Aid Group], and provided new e-book series, such as "Blockchain Methodology" Volume 1 (about 340,000 words) and "Blockchain Methodology" Volume 2 (about 280,000 words, to be released this month), as well as more auxiliary content including the "Strategy Collection".
In short, we only do what we can and are willing to do. As for how many people can see and discover what we do, and how much effective help we can bring to them, let's just be 'Buddha-like' about it.
Often, reality is more cruel than ideals. For example, when you do something, others will think it is what you should do, and if you stop doing it one day, others will criticize you for why you didn't continue, or suddenly one day they find that you didn't do a certain point well, they will continue to criticize you for having no conscience and even directly negate all the things you have done in the past. Therefore, in any field, we should try to find those who are on the same wavelength as ourselves, rather than trying to accomplish everything for everyone. Perhaps sometimes we should learn to do one thing, and that is: let go of the desire to help others, and respect the destiny of others.
Now let's get back to the topic and continue to talk about Altcoins.
Recently, ETH broke through $4,000 but did not stabilize, but experienced a relatively rapid pullback, dropping to around $3,500 at the lowest. As of the time of writing, it has returned to around $3,900. Although there is short-term volatility in the price, if we look at the on-chain data and combine it with the weekly level, ETH is still overall in an upward trend.
For example, in terms of on-chain data, the inflow of ETH ETFs has been continuously increasing, and has been in a state of continuous net inflow since November 22nd, as shown in the figure below.
At the same time, investors (including whales) have continued to withdraw large amounts of ETH from exchanges in the past few weeks. I did a simple calculation, and from November 28th to the present, more than 490,000 ETH have been withdrawn. As shown in the figure below.
In simple terms, the inflow of funds, the continuous accumulation of whales, and the ETH staking we mentioned before, these most direct factors seem to be jointly supporting the prospect of ETH prices.
For example, from the K-line perspective, the MACD indicator still shows a good upward trend overall, and the position around $3,900 also seems to be a relatively good starting point. Let's see if it can continue to break through effectively. As shown in the figure below.
In summary, I don't know if ETH can break through its historical high this year, but perhaps in the not-too-distant future, we will have the opportunity to witness this result, and this process still requires patience.
Whether ETH can effectively break through will also be one of the foundations for the Altcoin season to continue better in the future, because as the king of Altcoins, various Altcoins need ETH to have a certain performance first in order to have a better overall performance. Next, let's continue to look at the indicators.
The first is the Altseason Index
We have introduced this indicator several times in previous articles of Talk Li Talk Outside. From the current display value, this indicator has successfully broken through 75 this month (December 2nd). Although as of the time of writing, the value has dropped to 69, theoretically, we may witness the rise of some Altcoins or the creation of new glory in the next few months (short cycle). As shown in the figure below.
The second is BTC.D (Bitcoin's dominance)
Based on historical experience, when Bitcoin's dominance begins to decline, there is a chance to usher in a real Altcoin season. And from the current data, it seems that the overall bullish change of Altcoins is happening.
In the last major cycle, Bitcoin's dominance reached a new peak after about 1,070 days from the bottom, while from the bottom of this round to the new relative high point this year, it took about 1,050 days, almost the same script happening again. And if history continues to repeat itself, then it can indicate one thing: the Altcoin season has already begun. As shown in the figure below.
The 3rd one is ETH/BTC
Based on historical experience, once BTC creates a new ATH, ETH/BTC will approach a relatively low level. As shown in the figure below.
And when ETH starts to outperform BTC in exchange rate, Altcoins will usually enter the parabolic change stage. For a long time, ETH/BTC has been in a downward trend, but from the current trend, this situation seems to be reversing, especially since ETH/BTC hit the bottom in November, it has risen by nearly 30% in just 3 weeks. And if the same script happens again, then theoretically, ETH/BTC's exchange rate should not fall below 0.03, and according to the timeline, we may see some better performance of Altcoins as a whole in the first quarter of next year (2025). As shown in the figure below.
The 4th one is Total2 (total market cap excluding BTC)
Remember in an article before (August 13th), we mentioned that the ideal state is that the total market cap of Altcoins will reach more than $1.2 trillion or even higher at the beginning of 2025 (first quarter), and then officially start a new Altcoin season. As shown in the figure below.
However, this month (December), the value of Total2 has already broken through this position and reached around $1.6 trillion, as of the time of writing this article, it is $1.55 trillion. This may also be due to the fact that BTC broke through the $10,000 mark earlier than expected, and the recent "value return" rise of some old coins.
But our view remains unchanged, that once Total2 breaks through the position of more than $1.2 trillion, we believe that the new Altcoin season has already begun. At the same time, our own target will not change, when the value of Total2 breaks through $2 trillion, we will consider selling the remaining Altcoin positions in batches in this cycle.
In general, the market may still face volatility in the short term, and the basic problems of Altcoins, such as high FDV and low circulation of VC coins, lack of ecological innovation, and dilution of liquidity by a large number of new projects, have not been solved. Although fundamentals often determine the price of a target, sometimes the price may not listen to the fundamentals. Once the hype is in place and people FOMO back in, as long as there is no major black swan event, the overall trend in the next few months is likely to be good.
We are currently in the spring of the Altcoin season, but don't be too greedy, don't be too aggressive, because the spring of Altcoins may also become the winter of retail investors. Living longer is more important than living well in the short term, and investing is a long-term, comprehensive practice.
Of course, the old saying still applies, different people have different positions, different goals, and different risk preferences, and everyone's entry and exit strategies will be different. The content we have sorted out is just a simple sharing based on data and ideas, and cannot be used as investment operation advice. DYOR.
