What will happen if the U.S. economy declines next year? Analyst: Bitcoin plummeted to $45,000, U.S. stocks plummeted 30%...

Here is the English translation: Although the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has repeatedly emphasized this year that inflation control has been effective and the door to rate cuts has gradually opened, there are still many experts warning that the U.S. economy may face recession risks next year due to factors such as labor market pressure, potential economic policies after Trump's inauguration, the accumulation of U.S. stock market bubbles, and the instability of the global political and economic situation.

BCA Research: If the U.S. economy falls into recession, the U.S. stock market and BTC will suffer a heavy blow

Against this backdrop, investment research firm BCA Research recently stated in a report that if the U.S. economy does experience a recession in 2025, the U.S. stock market and BTC are likely to suffer a heavy blow. BCA Research first pointed out that the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index has already reached 23 times, far exceeding the average level from 2015 to 2019. Therefore, if the U.S. economy falls into recession, the U.S. stock market will first bear the huge pressure brought by it. BCA Research predicts:

The S&P 500 index will fall to a low of 4,197 points in November, and although there will be a rebound, it will ultimately end the year at 4,452 points, a decline of 31% for the full year.

At the same time, under the background of recession, the market's enthusiasm for AI stocks will gradually cool down, while the stocks of consumer staples, healthcare and utilities will be relatively resilient.

In addition, BCA Research stated that BTC will also be unable to escape the impact if a recession occurs, and it cannot play a hedging role:

BTC will not attract the inflow of safe-haven funds, on the contrary, it will be closely related to the volatility of the stock market, and is expected to plummet to $45,000 by the end of the year. Ultimately, the market will prove that BTC is just a high-risk investment.

However, when an economic recession arrives, the hedging feature of gold will be sought after by the market. BCA Research expects gold to rise by 10% for the full year next year, and investors holding gold will be protected.

Matrixport: BTC may reach $160,000 next year

However, if the U.S. successfully achieves a soft landing, Matrixport released an investment research report on Twitter yesterday (13th), stating that affected by factors such as U.S. regulation and institutional adoption, BTC will exhibit different volatility characteristics next year compared to previous cycles, and BTC will no longer see dozens of percentage point downward corrections, but instead have an upside potential of 60%, with a possible high of $160,000:

With the increase in institutional adoption, the improvement of regulatory clarity, the increase in speculative behavior, and the continuous expansion of use cases, BTC will drive the cryptocurrency market to mature. Institutions that actively embrace BTC have already achieved considerable returns through investing in ETFs, which will motivate them to further increase their BTC allocation in 2025.

Market dynamics are changing, and unlike the sharp corrections of up to -80% in previous cycles, BTC's expanding base of buyers on dips and institutional support have reduced the likelihood of major price corrections.

We forecast that BTC may reach $160,000 in 2025, representing an upside potential of +60%, which is consistent with the sustained demand for BTC ETFs, the evolution of the overall economic environment, and the enhancement of global liquidity.

At the same time, Matrixport also stated that the adoption rate of BTC is expected to break through the 8% milestone next year and gradually transition from a niche asset to a core component of the global financial market. Therefore, Matrixport recommends a 1.55% allocation to BTC to achieve a diversified investment portfolio. The analysis reports from the two firms show a very large difference in BTC price forecasts, indicating that the U.S. economy still has a very significant impact on BTC, and BTC's current risk investment attributes are still relatively strong. Whether it can play a hedging role remains to be observed over time.