Author: Marie Poteriaieva
Translator: Bai Hua Blockchain
Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark last week, undoubtedly a milestone of historical significance. However, just as this leading cryptocurrency celebrates its achievements, many Altcoins have begun to outperform Bitcoin, heralding the arrival of Altcoin Season.
Since the beginning of the year, 20 out of the top 50 crypto assets by market cap have seen gains exceeding Bitcoin's impressive 124% rise. The rise in Altcoin market cap, increased media attention, and the surge in the Altcoin Season Index further confirm this trend. Moreover, a recent CCData report shows that trading volume reached a new annual high in November, with open interest also hitting a record high. These signs indicate that market risk appetite is on the rise. And this change is usually more favorable for Altcoins, as they have higher potential upside.
Looking deeper, investing in Altcoins is actually investing in Web3 and other blockchain-related industries. This industry is highly dependent on regulatory clarity, and the market has become more optimistic about this since the US election. Furthermore, according to the latest data from CryptoQuant, the trading volume of Altcoins is not driven by BTC trading pairs. This suggests that the market is experiencing real growth, rather than just asset rotation from Bitcoin to Altcoins. This may also mean that this Altcoin Season may not have to wait for Bitcoin price consolidation, and we may see both crypto asset classes rise simultaneously.
The Altcoin rebound since November seems to suggest that an even larger Altcoin Season will arrive in 2025. Emerging crypto trends and technologies may attract the attention of institutional investors and venture capitalists. The following is a speculation on the potential of the next Altcoin Season and its key narratives, based on on-chain data and other trends.
1. Altcoin Season is not just about price
Altcoin Season is typically defined as a period when Altcoins consistently outperform Bitcoin. This stage often occurs in the last year of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, when market enthusiasm spreads from Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies, and large-cap Altcoins will approach or surpass their historical highs, while new narratives drive mid- and small-cap coins to break through unknown highs. Ultimately, this stage reaches a climax due to widespread FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment, pushing the entire crypto market into an overheated state. This overheating usually signals an impending market adjustment and the eventual entry into a bear market cycle.
However, Altcoin Season is not just about price, it represents a comprehensive evolution of market activity, application adoption, and innovation. So far, each Altcoin Season has reflected unique technological transformations and market trends.
The first Altcoin Season in 2017 was marked by the ICO craze and the rise of (remember CryptoKitties?). The second Altcoin Season in 2021 combined the rise of and the full-blown explosion of and gaming. To support these developments, cheaper and more scalable solutions also emerged. All of these innovations have withstood the Crypto Winter and continued to evolve.
Looking ahead, the third Altcoin Season in 2025 is expected to bring new narratives and technologies, some of which are already in development, while others have yet to emerge.
2. Indicators of Altcoin Season
Multiple indicators suggest that Altcoin Season is approaching. The decline in Bitcoin's dominance, the outperformance of Altcoins over Bitcoin, and their new all-time high market cap. However, the Altcoin Season Index and other related indicators suggest that the peak of Altcoins may not have arrived yet.
In absolute terms, the total market cap of Altcoins, calculated by subtracting Bitcoin's market cap from the total crypto market cap, has reached a new all-time high. According to Coingecko data, the current market cap is $1.89 trillion, surpassing the $1.79 trillion peak in November 2021. In relative terms, Bitcoin's dominance has declined from 60% to 51% since November.
However, both of these metrics include stablecoins and wrapped assets. While they are crucial for market liquidity, they may not accurately reflect the development of the Altcoin market. Furthermore, under bullish conditions, these assets tend to lean towards Altcoins, as they have higher risk-return characteristics.
To measure the market more purely, the Altcoin Season Index from Blockchain Center excludes stablecoins and wrapped assets. This index defines Altcoin Season as a period when more than 75% of the top 50 Altcoins outperform Bitcoin over the past 90 days. Recently, this index crossed the 75% threshold on December 2nd and maintained it for a week. The previous Altcoin Season saw the index stay above the threshold for nearly three months. This supports the view that the peak of Altcoin Season may occur in 2025.
The OTHERS index calculated by platforms like TradingView is another important indicator of Altcoin performance. This index tracks the total market cap of the crypto market excluding the top 10 coins (including the two largest stablecoins). Although this index has risen 123% in the past 30 days (followed by a correction), it has not yet reached its previous all-time high. Last time, it surged 525% from the 2017 all-time high, indicating there is still significant room for growth.
Finally, Google Trends also reflects people's interest in Altcoins. Reaching a peak value of 100 in May 2021, the current search interest has risen to 87, the highest level since then.
3. Key Narratives for Altcoins in 2025
As of 2024, three of the best-performing top 50 Altcoins are coins: Dogwifhat (WIF +2,027%), (+1,764%), and Dogecoin (DOGE +382%). Although coins are often a symbol of Altcoin Season, they are unlikely to define the mainstream narrative of the crypto market in 2025.
According to Blockchain Center's data, among the new technologies that emerged in 2023-2024, have performed the best. Although some do not consider them true Altcoins, these issued on the Bitcoin blockchain, leveraging technologies like or , have seen gains exceeding 1000% this year. In the more traditional Altcoin categories, (tokenization of real-world assets) lead with a 717% annual growth rate, including tokenized versions of real-world assets and their supporting protocols. Closely followed are related to Artificial Intelligence (+513%) and (decentralized physical infrastructure, +303%).
By 2025, new narratives are likely to emerge, and the direction of venture capital investments may reveal the most promising areas. According to Pitchbook data, venture capital activity in the crypto space was relatively moderate in 2023 ($10 billion), and reached $7.1 billion in the third quarter of 2024. Next year, its activity may rebound to the levels of 2021 and 2022, reaching $25.3 billion and $29.4 billion, respectively. This influx of capital will flow into specific projects and broader areas, driving the next wave of growth.
Finally, please note that during the hype of Altcoin Season, it is crucial to avoid being swept up by the market's speculation. Every bull market ultimately ends in an adjustment (turning bearish), and only those with strong fundamentals and real-world use cases will survive the next cycle.
Link to the article: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/12/5583.html
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/12/10/the-real-altcoin-season-is-coming-in-2025/
